Computer guidance last night continued to show the heavy rainfall that we discussed last night. With the ground saturated, river levels quite high, and the potential for as much as three inches of rain to fall in areas that have no capacity for additional rainfall the National Weather Service has issued Flood Watches for Thursday for Eastern and Southeastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey except the coast, and Northern Delaware.
Flood guidance over a six hour period of time (see above) is rather low -- some areas would see flooding conditions with less than an inch of rain over a period of six hours. With most of the computer guidance suggesting the potential for an inch of rain or more during Thursday in a six hour window, river flooding is definitely a concern, especially for the Delaware (which is already running high) as well as the Passaic in New Jersey (which is currently flooding). The Schuylkill could see minor flooding but it currently has a bit more breathing room to work with compared to the other two rivers mentioned. In addition to those rivers, local streams and creeks around the region (Brandywine, Neshaminy, Graterford) are also at risk of flooding.
We'll update the model guidance on the storm later on today.
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