Soggy Storm System For Sunday

Most computer guidance is in clear agreement about the next rain event moving in on Sunday -- potentially setting up as a soggy storm system for parts of the region if guidance holds serve over the coming days.   The GFS and EURO both dig a trough down in the Midwest along a frontal boundary, with low pressure organizing along the front and moving east-northeast or northeast, depending on the model.  The two models bring the storm system through starting late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, with the bulk of the event during the midday or early afternoon hours.   There's still some difference in the specific timing on the frontal passage (which will probably be when the rain cuts off) but both models indicate most of Sunday will be rainy.

Like last Monday's event, which was full of computer modeling fail from a precip forecast standpoint in our area, the computer models again are suggesting the heaviest rainfall will be to the north and west of Philadelphia.   Parts of Western, Northern, and Central Pennsylvania could pick up close to 2" of rain if things pan out.   Around here, a half inch to an inch looks pretty likely at this point, with the most rainfall across the Lehigh Valley and Berks County.

Some thunder can't be ruled out with this storm as well, especially on the eastern side of the low track.  If the GFS verifies, the best chances for thunder will be across Delaware and South Jersey (closer to the low) whereas with the Euro the low track is farther west (towards Pittsburgh and Erie) and thunder chances would exist for everyone but would generally be confined to the frontal passage in the afternoon.   It doesn't, for now, look like there would be any severe weather potential with the front, but some thunder could move through...

Ahead of the front, expect temperatures in the 50's to low 60's on Sunday -- very Spring-like but the soggy factor will make those milder temperatures a bit less enjoyable.