Ark Busting Rains?

We have a couple of days to dry off and shake the water out of our boots before round two moves in on Thursday. Computer modeling is showing the potential for another soaking rainfall in the Philadelphia region as a storm system is poised to lift northeast through the Appalachians and Northeast as the parade of storms continues along the East Coast over the coming weeks.

The worst of the storm looks to move in during Thursday's midday and afternoon hours -- and if the GFS is correct is looks like the potential for an inch of rain during the day Thursday along I-95, with rain starting during the early morning hours on Thursday, which means the commute to and from work will be slow, drenching, and not a fun ride for anyone in the Philadelphia region.   Rain may start (not finish) this time as snow or sleet across the Poconos (the Euro and NAM depict this scenario) as dry air from high pressure remains entrenched and helps cool the atmosphere as precipitation moves in.   As moisture streams in from the Atlantic on Thursday, the transition from frozen to non-frozen will take place quickly in the Poconos although temperatures up there will be chilly during the event, probably staying in the 30's or perhaps low 40's.

This will be a cooler storm, especially north and west of the city while some of the influence of the high will keep temperatures down a touch.   Computer modeling is suggesting the potential for two to four inches of rain in parts of the region, especially if the Euro is correct, and that type of rainfall could yield some significant flooding in parts of the region, particularly along the Delaware River where there's some minor flooding already taking place.   Timing-wise, the Euro is the slowest (Thursday into Thursday night) while the GFS has the system clearing out Thursday evening.

Other guidance paints similar rainfall totals although the GFS paints the heaviest rains over I-95 while the Euro paints it to the north and west.  In either scenario, the models are painting a pretty heavy rain event for Thursday across the region.