Kamis, 02 Juni 2011
Still pretty hot today...
Today will again feature highs in the 90s across the region, but in many areas humidity levels will be noticeably lower....especially the farther north you are in the region. Some afternoon storms are possible in South Carolina up into parts of the mountains and southern foothills of NC....and a few could drift into the southern Piedmont.
Tomorrow we get a brief break from the heat. For the Triad area, look for mid 80s for highs with mid to upper 80s for Charlotte and the Triangle.
Highs return to the 90s over the weekend with a few storms possible as well...mainly Sunday afternoon.
Tropics....
The little disturbance that was off the SC and GA coast yesterday has made its way into the Gulf this morning. However, it's developmental chances are very low.
The place to watch over the next week is the Caribbean Sea. There is a lot of unsettled weather down that way, and a number of computer models continue to latch onto the chance of development in that area.
Rabu, 01 Juni 2011
Reviewing May 2011
Thanks to a very warm finish, May 2011 goes down as the 6th warmest May since 1872 as monthly temperatures averaged out to 67.4 degrees, 3.9 degrees above average. Believe it or not, May 2011 was warmer than May 2010 (67.3 degrees). Spring 2011 also ended up as the 6th warmest -- 56.1 degrees for the average temperature between March and May, which was not as warm as last Spring (warmest since 1872 at 58 degrees). May 2011 was buoyed by a very warm finish -- the average temperature the last eight days of May was 11.3 degrees above where we should be.
May 31st's high of 94 degrees equaled the hottest May high temperature in fifteen years -- the last time the city reached 94 in the month of May was May 20th, 1996. The last time May had a higher high temperature than 94 was in 1991 (97).
Rainfall as we get into summer can be very localized -- and some spots can be rewarded with too much rain while others get much less. This May showed that to be the case -- Philadelphia's monthly total of 1.91" was half of what constitutes average rainfall for the month locally. Allentown picked up 4.37" of rain for the month, just 0.10" below average while Reading picked up 5.36" and was nearly an inch of rain above where they should be. Philly ended up in a bit of a rainfall donut hole compared to most everyone else in the past month.
One Last Blast Of Heat
Today's high of 96 degrees is the highest of the three day heat shot and of the year so far. Fitting start to meteorological summer, isn't it? Well, it will be a good bit cooler tomorrow as a cool front crosses the region tonight and brings a major reduction in humidity tomorrow along with temperatures that are much closer to reality.
Unless you were near the Shore today or in the Poconos, most everyone was 90 or above this afternoon. Records were reached in Newark (NJ), Baltimore, Washington, Reading, and Georgetown (DE). Philly's record high for today, like the last three days, was 97. Yeah, we missed it by one. Just like we missed on the severe weather. The heat didn't go out with a bang, nor with a record, and by the end of the summer the heat wave will probably be a distant, distant memory for many of us!
June 2nd, 2011 Forecast
The cool front will set the regime for the next few days -- temperatures will top out close to 80 for highs on a daily basis through Saturday while lows may get under 60 in the city tomorrow night. Tonight will see the beginnings of that relief as humidity levels will decrease as the night progresses. By morning, temperatures will bottom out in the lower and middle 60's, several degrees cooler than last night.
This Afternoon's Severe Discussion
Update, 5:30 PM: The "line" of thunderstorms is now just two thunderstorm cells -- one across Central Jersey and about to hit the Atlantic, with the second cell down near Wilmington in Delaware. The Central Jersey cell did work through the Trenton area and had a severe warning with it for a time, with the cell in Wilmington also warned across Chester County earlier on this afternoon. At this point, the storm threat is generally down to the Wilmington cell as dry air is beginning to approach the region. Dewpoints drop from 71 in Reading to 64 in Harrisburg to the 40's in Western Pennsylvania, with the "trough" that was going to be the trigger for thunderstorm development now generally overhead and working east.
Update, 4:30 PM: We're seeing a bit of a regenesis in the storm activity, especially in Bucks into Mercer Counties where a severe warning is now out. Scattered activity is continued on back to the west into Chester County but the storms farther west, at this point, aren't as strong.
Update, 3:30 PM: The "line" I talked about earlier has fallen apart a good bit -- looking at some of the atmospheric data one would think the potential would really exist -- there is a lot of atmospheric juice and instability. Dynamics aloft, however, aren't as favorable. The upper level jet that was modeled to be overhead today is instead a bit farther north, with lighter winds aloft at the surface and a less optimal setup for severe around here.
Radar is showing a bit of a weak trough/boundary line across the northern/western suburbs. Nothing has popped from it yet but if anything does fire development could be quick as it may be a focal point for localized thunderstorm development later on. Unfortunately, things are "stuck" because of a less than favorable upper level of the atmosphere as winds aloft may not be strong enough to help aid in storm development.
Update, 2:45 PM: A couple of smaller storms have started to pop around the city and suburbs. Nothing severe at this point in the city or suburban counties (not including Berks/Lehigh, which are both under warnings until 3:45 PM) but the earlier mentioned line of storms that developed along the lee trough have gotten a bit better organized and now generally extend from Stroudsburg to Allentown to Reading and farther south and then west. We'll probably see that line continue to fill in as it moves east and more storms continue to pop ahead of the line in the next hour.
Lots of stuff to talk about this afternoon! Not only do we have the heat warning but we have two severe weather watches out there. First, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 5 PM for Central into Northeast Pennsylvania, with a Tornado Watch out until 8 PM for the Philadelphia area on north.
A supercell thunderstorm fired up across Central Pennsylvania and zipped east into Northeast PA early this afternoon. That cell will pass through North Jersey and towards the northern NYC suburbs over the next couple of hours. Our development is setting up out near Harrisburg, along the "lee" trough that develops along and just east of the Appalachian Mountains, where you get a bit of a dry line between slightly cooler/less humid mountain air and the moist, humid air that can pool across Central and Southeastern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms are starting to fire up and will gravitate east over the next few hours, with the Philadelphia region's best chance for thunder generally between 3 and 6 PM, possibly a bit later than that to our east.
Damaging winds are more likely than tornadoes but a tornado can't be ruled out -- the Storm Prediction Center has Philly and points north in a 5% chance area whereas damaging wind has a 30% chance of verifying within 25 miles of one's spot. Regardless, expect storms to continue to pop over the coming hours and work towards the region, with our best chances of getting hit after 3 PM.
It also would not surprise me if some sort of watch gets issued for Delaware, Maryland, and the rest of South Jersey within the next hour or two.
Update, 2:30 PM: Severe Thunderstorm Watch now out for South Jersey and Delaware (basically the rest of the region not under the Tornado Watch) until 10 PM.
We'll have updates within this post as the afternoon progresses.
More: Current Weather Page
Update, 4:30 PM: We're seeing a bit of a regenesis in the storm activity, especially in Bucks into Mercer Counties where a severe warning is now out. Scattered activity is continued on back to the west into Chester County but the storms farther west, at this point, aren't as strong.
Update, 3:30 PM: The "line" I talked about earlier has fallen apart a good bit -- looking at some of the atmospheric data one would think the potential would really exist -- there is a lot of atmospheric juice and instability. Dynamics aloft, however, aren't as favorable. The upper level jet that was modeled to be overhead today is instead a bit farther north, with lighter winds aloft at the surface and a less optimal setup for severe around here.
Radar is showing a bit of a weak trough/boundary line across the northern/western suburbs. Nothing has popped from it yet but if anything does fire development could be quick as it may be a focal point for localized thunderstorm development later on. Unfortunately, things are "stuck" because of a less than favorable upper level of the atmosphere as winds aloft may not be strong enough to help aid in storm development.
Update, 2:45 PM: A couple of smaller storms have started to pop around the city and suburbs. Nothing severe at this point in the city or suburban counties (not including Berks/Lehigh, which are both under warnings until 3:45 PM) but the earlier mentioned line of storms that developed along the lee trough have gotten a bit better organized and now generally extend from Stroudsburg to Allentown to Reading and farther south and then west. We'll probably see that line continue to fill in as it moves east and more storms continue to pop ahead of the line in the next hour.
Lots of stuff to talk about this afternoon! Not only do we have the heat warning but we have two severe weather watches out there. First, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 5 PM for Central into Northeast Pennsylvania, with a Tornado Watch out until 8 PM for the Philadelphia area on north.
A supercell thunderstorm fired up across Central Pennsylvania and zipped east into Northeast PA early this afternoon. That cell will pass through North Jersey and towards the northern NYC suburbs over the next couple of hours. Our development is setting up out near Harrisburg, along the "lee" trough that develops along and just east of the Appalachian Mountains, where you get a bit of a dry line between slightly cooler/less humid mountain air and the moist, humid air that can pool across Central and Southeastern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms are starting to fire up and will gravitate east over the next few hours, with the Philadelphia region's best chance for thunder generally between 3 and 6 PM, possibly a bit later than that to our east.
Damaging winds are more likely than tornadoes but a tornado can't be ruled out -- the Storm Prediction Center has Philly and points north in a 5% chance area whereas damaging wind has a 30% chance of verifying within 25 miles of one's spot. Regardless, expect storms to continue to pop over the coming hours and work towards the region, with our best chances of getting hit after 3 PM.
It also would not surprise me if some sort of watch gets issued for Delaware, Maryland, and the rest of South Jersey within the next hour or two.
Update, 2:30 PM: Severe Thunderstorm Watch now out for South Jersey and Delaware (basically the rest of the region not under the Tornado Watch) until 10 PM.
We'll have updates within this post as the afternoon progresses.
More: Current Weather Page
More heat today...tropical season begins...
First off, some select highs from yesterday....
Erwin: 100
Washington: 99
Cherry Point: 98
Charlotte: 95
Greensboro: 94
Raleigh: 94
Expect similar highs today compared to yesterday....maybe even a degree or so warmer in a few spots....pretty stifling heat. Please use lots of caution when outside today.
A weak cold front is dropping our way, and I still expect a few storms to fire late this afternoon into this evening. While most spots will likely remain dry, the storms that do form could produce lots of lightning as well as the chance of some damaging winds and hail.
Southern parts of NC and much of SC will continue to see a chance of a few PM storms the rest of the week with highs remain pretty hot overall. See the video for details on some model uncertainty next week.
Tropics...
Today marks the official beginning of tropical season in the Atlantic Basin. Right on cue, there is a disturbance a few hundred miles off of the Carolina coast, but the overall chances of it developing into an classified system are remote. See the video for details. And remember, we have now cranked up our Tropical Updates on News 14 Carolina t :21 and :51 past the hour.
Slight Risk of Severe Storms Later Today
A trough is moving into Pennsylvania this morning with little fanfare and little thunderstorm activity. However, as that boundary works east into a more favorable atmosphere the potential for thunderstorm development towards midday and into the early afternoon does exist. As instability will be quite high thanks to a decent amount of heat and humidity (especially in Pennsylvania) and dynamics aloft are somewhat favorable we are under a slight risk for severe weather for the region for today. The strongest of storms will produce damaging wind as an upper level jet streak works east in tandem with the trough. As thunderstorms develop, some of them will tap into the stronger winds aloft and pull some damaging wind gusts to the surface.
At minimum, storm development will be scattered in nature but it's completely possible that a line of thunderstorms develops later on today and slides southeast.
This may not be a widespread severe event, however. One, last night's seabreeze front has helped push in some marine layer stratus along coastal sections of New Jersey. Depending on how long it takes for that marine layer to lift this morning, it is possible that thunderstorms along coastal sections of the Garden State may not be as robust as they were in Pennsylvania due to a more stable atmosphere along the coast. Pennsylvania seems to be more "under the gun" for stronger/severe storms than those east of, say, the New Jersey Turnpike based on this. If thunderstorm development occurs a little bit later on in the afternoon -- closer to dinner and not lunch -- the extra couple of hours of daytime heating may be enough to overcome the stable atmosphere along the coast this morning.
More: Current Weather Page
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