Saturday....

I am slipping back into the groove of things slowly. Beautiful morning out there after a wet and stormy evening yesterday. I expect scattered showers and storms this afternoon into early evening.

It is interesting, the end result is really kind of like a summertime day. The heating of the day provides enough instability to kick off the scattered showers and storms. Highs will only be in the 60s today, so obviously, the airmass will not really seemingly be that unstable. However, due to a nearby upper level low (see 500mb chart below), the result is about the same as a summer day. The reason is upper level lows are characterized by very cold air aloft in the atmosphere. So, the upper levels today will be colder than the lower levels even though the lower levels will not be all that warm.....thus, instability for scattered showers/ storms. There you go....quick little bit of weekend meteorology for you....

I think I have turned the corner with my knee recovering from surgery. I was able to do all of my walking yesterday without crutches. There is still a lot of swelling and soreness I am working through, but as far as recovering from the surgery, I am probably back to about 75% or 80%. I will have my post-op appointment Wednesday and see what the test results showed. If the surgeon's initial hunch is correct, it will likely be on to a rheumatologist to find the source of the recurrent swelling since structurally, the knee was in good shape. Keep in mind, we are not talking about a little swelling occasionally....we are talking about fairly grotesque, very significant amounts of swelling every week to ten days. So, I would love to find the solution....

Many of you know I am a huge sports fan, especially college sports. I am a Mississippi State alumnus, and my Bulldogs beat Florida in the SEC tournament yesterday. Today, we play Vanderbilt in Nashville. Tough game. If we win though, I think odds are good that we will make the NCAA tournament. If we lose, it is a long shot. Game is on ABC this afternoon.

Enjoy the weekend....my plan is to be back in the weather office Monday morning.

Rain and some storms this evening....

Rain and storms will roll through the region this evening. The storms near the leading edge of the activity (area generally circled in red in the radar image above, from around 6pm) have been strengthening over the past hour or so.

A couple of strong to severe storms are certainly possible. Some heavy rain, gusty winds, hail, and lightning are possible with the stronger storms.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television for the latest.

Robert's post....

Blog 3/11/2010



Well if you like cloudy weather and off and on showers then the next few days are for you. Expect showers to arrive late morning today through this evening. Today will most likely be our heaviest rain day unless we get a heavy thunderstorm Friday. Showers through Sunday will be few and passing with light amounts. Temperatures should stay above normal through the weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s staying well above freezing at night.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms today and tomorrow but storms if any shouldn’t reach severe criteria. We will have the shearing of the winds to support severe weather but CAPE levels are far too low and will suppress development from occurring.

Yesterday appeared to be our first highly active severe day of the season. From the Southern Plains to the Gulf region, multiple tornado watches and severe watches were posted from the afternoon until the late evening. There were reports (see map) of Hail, wind, and tornadoes with even some injuries.

The reason why the spring is so active for severe weather is because of the winter fighting the summer for domination of Continental air mass. Between these two air-masses we have the Jet stream which separates the two. Along with the fronts, boundaries, lows, and deep Gulf moisture we have high CAPE values and high shear levels. CAPE is the convective available potential energy that allows air to rise during storm events. The higher the cape the more air that is available to rise and create thunderstorms. The Cape is high because the surface is warming rapidly during the day and the upper levels remain very cold because of the jet above. Since hot air rises, it rises even faster when there is cold air above. As for the shear, the shear organizes the storm and allows for them to become severe dropping large hail, winds, or even tornados. Since the Jet is so far south still the strong winds above spin and strengthen with height, organizing the storms. Once we hit the summer the Jet scoots back up to Canada and we see our severe chances drop for the South.

Robert Elvington

Still out of action.....

My original plan had been to come back to work this morning, but all things considered yesterday, it seemed best to not push it and plan to return Monday instead. The swelling and pain get a touch better each day, but there is still a lot of instability in the knee.....and fairly often it will 'give way' when I am trying to shuffle around. So, thought it best to give it a few more days. Besides, don't need to make a youtube clip of me collapsing on air.....

In terms of the weather, flooding rains have occurred in parts of the Deep South, especially Alabama into parts of Georgia. This is a slow-moving upper air pattern, and one disturbance after another keeps moving our way.

For the NC Piedmont, it looks like later today into tonight we will see a wave of rain move through and then another way probably Friday evening/night. Some thunderstorms could be involved, and a couple of strong ones too.

Check the SPC Products as well as the Radar and Satellite pages here on the site for the latest in that regard.

All right, that's enough from me. Time to elevate the leg some more. I believe Robert Elvington is putting together a post for you that I will post for you sometime soon....

Recovering

Thanks for the well-wishes regarding my surgery. I am slowly recovering. Obviously, still a lot of knee pain and stiffness, but I can now lift my leg and hold it a few seconds this morning. That's an improvement. Still will be on crutches for a couple of days.

I haven't been able to look at much weather stuff, so forgive my lack of getting into that this morning.

Just wanted to let you know that I am still alive and kicking!

Enjoy a great Sunday.....

Robert's post...

Here is Robert's blog post. Especially note the last section where Robert previewed the upcoming severe weather season....

With Tuesday's system long gone expect the Piedmont to remain quiet with gradual warming through the entire weekend. Temperatures today will reach into the lower 50s, with breezy conditions ending today. The weekend should be warmer with temps nearing 60, Saturday through Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday should be our next system. As of right now all signs point towards rain. Models are all showing rain currently with this track and climatology just doesn't favor another winter storm. However, like always we will keep an eye on it with every new model run.

Since things are relatively quiet I have begun looking at the upcoming spring severe weather season for NC. Technically the deep South is already in the beginning of sever weather season going by climatology. In the Past NC has seen many severe events this early in the season. Interesting to note that the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma, the agency that issues tornado and severe T-storm watches for the entire US, reported not a single tornado for the US in the month of February. This is the first time in the 60 years that they have been keeping record. Could this be an indicator of the upcoming season? Most likely not. With an EL NINO signature quickly fading to a normal global pattern expect a storm season to still develop on Schedule or a little later. For a preliminary forecast I will call for an average amount of storm days and severe watches for the area, with a few strong events while the southern jet is still affecting the Southeast. Just a fun guess so we will see how it pans out.

Robert Elvington

robert.elvington@gmail.com

Tranquil weather for a little while...

A quiet stretch of weather is unfolding across much of the eastern US. For our region, that will translate into a lot of sunshine and each day getting a little milder then the previous day.

Today will still be a bit chilly and breezy with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

Tomorrow we will see highs close to 50, then mid to maybe upper 50s Saturday, maybe low 60s Sunday, and highs up into the 60s Monday.

Our next storm system will roll through Tuesday into Wednesday. There is not a lot of model agreement on the track of this system, but for the Carolinas southward, I think odds are this winds up being a rain producer.

I get the idea that around mid-month or so, we will head back into a colder pattern for a while.

Under the knife.... I am having arthroscopic knee surgery in the morning, so I will not be in the weather office for several days. I will try to make a couple of blog and/or twitter posts at times, but no new videos until at least the middle of next week. I appreciate your patience!