Two systems in the offing. One is later today and tonight....the other is the much talked about system for early next week.
First off, we basically have a strong clipper that is dropping into the region. I have just seen the 12z NAM, and it is sticking to the idea of painting a very narrow stripe of accumulating snow across the region. This will likely be a strip of accumulating snow only about 50-100 miles across, and it will run in a west to east fashion. Honestly, anywhere from the Hwy 74 corridor to the I-40 is fair game to have this strip set up over you, but right now I would lean more toward the general area around Hwy 64. That is subject to change though. Wherever that strip does set up, a general 1-2" snow could occur. However, if the instability and forcing that the NAM shows does indeed materialize, a few very localized spots might see 3" or 4".
But I can't stress this enough...this will be a narrow and, and many will not see any accumulation at all. The best chance of accumulating snow will be from very late this afternoon through this evening.
System next week....
I don't really have any changes here. Some of the modeling on some runs has backed off a bit on the total precip amounts as the system moves into the Carolinas. That could indeed be the case, but overall I haven't seen a whole lot to lean me away from the idea that this looks like a widespread, high-impact type winter storm for a lot of areas from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Carolinas.
A little later today, I will post a couple of maps showing the general precip type areas I am going with as of now. Generally speaking, this looks like mainly snow for AR, north MS and AL, TN, north GA, northwestern SC, and much of NC from roughly the I-85 corridor north and west. South and east of that line, there will be an icy mix, and there could be a significant ice event in parts of central MS, AL, GA, and SC.
Again, check back a little later today and I will post some precip type maps.....
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar