All eyes on the Christmas storm...

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a watch.



A few areas saw a bit of snow last night, and in a few places, it was enough to lightly dust the ground. This was with a weak disturbance that is not exiting the region. A few sprinkles are possible tonight and tomorrow, but no big deal.

Christmas storm...

In terms of the modeling, the GFS remains the farthest north model of any of them. Let me say right off the bat.....it could be right. We are dealing with the phasing of two short waves....one diving down from the High Plains and the other that ejects from the Pacific and moves into the Deep South. If those phase early on in the game, the GFS could be correct. However, at this time, I continue to lean my forecast in the direction of the foreign models. It is worth noting that the GFS's own ensembles remain well south of the operation model....even up through the latest 6z run.

For snow lovers, the oz runs of the Canadian and European were a beautiful sight. Both painted a very snowy scenario Christmas Day from the Tennessee Valley right up through the Upstate and midlands of SC and most of NC.

The UKMET was even farther south, indicating any phasing between the disturbances would be much slower.

As I mentioned above, like I did yesterday, I am leaning my forecast heavily in the direction of the foreign models. For my public forecast on News 14, I am going with no precip on Christmas Eve with snow chances arriving Christmas Day.

What can go wrong?

Lots. If the two disturbance phase early, then a more northerly track would occur, meaning rain for most from the Carolinas southward.

If they phase too late or not at all, a very weak, suppressed system would result, meaning very light precip amounts.

However, if we thread the needle, like the Canadian and Euro have been showing, the result would be a once in a lifetime type of Christmas snow in the Southeast. But PLEASE keep in mind it will take near perfect timing to get these disturbances to interact at the right time for this to happen.

I am not going to commit to any specifics at this point. It is just too early, and too much can go wrong. But I will continue to go with the idea of some snow being possible around the region Christmas Day.