I will say right off of the bat....this is a fairly low-confidence forecast. As I mentioned back on Friday, with as much model agreement as there was, you were simply waiting on complications to arise. And they did over the weekend, and they continue as I type.
Some models are very dry with the precip output from our next system, while others are much wetter, and getting wetter (GFS). For my forecast package this morning, I have leaned in the direction of the wetter models for a couple of reasons. First of all, the seasonal trend has been for systems to over-perform on precip output. Secondly, the system looks very impressive as of now.
Ahead of the system, today will be quiet with increasing clouds and highs in the lower 50s. Tonight will be cloudy with lows close to freezing.
For the Carolinas, precip will arrive very early in the day tomorrow. Initially some rain could be involved, but I think very quickly locations roughly along and north of I-85 transition to primarily snow. As the low pressure strengthens along the coast, the rain/snow line will gradually shift eastward.
In terms of potential accumulations, see my map below. Keep in mind....this is my preliminary outlook....changes could be made as we go forward.
For the Triad, I will go with a general 1-3" snow. Much the same for RDU, although it gets trickier as you head east due slightly warmer surface temps. Eastern NC accumulations will all depend on how strong the low is as it cranks off of the coast.
For the Charlotte region, I will go with a general 1-3" area just north and west of town with 2-4" along and just south of I-85 down through the Upstate and into parts of northern Georgia. Again, see the map below.
Please note that if the drier modeling verifies, this forecast will bust badly. But those are my thoughts as of now. Time will tell.
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