Afternoon thoughts....

Quick thoughts here.....the upper low is departing the NE coastline as expected, and our next system is looking very healthy in eastern Texas. Looking at the upper level features comparing what is actually occurring to the 12z 6 hour forecasts of the NAM and GFS, and frankly both models are doing a pretty decent job. The GFS is handling the current precip to our west better than the NAM.

Almost all modeling has come in wetter with the precip amounts. The NAM keeps the heaviest precip just south of a Charlotte to just south of Raleigh line. The GFS continued the trend I showed on the video this morning with its 12z run of increasing precip totals a bit further.

The reason the GFS is wetter than the NAM is its handling of the upper level features as we head through tomorrow. The NAM weakens the 850mb low for a short time before strengthening it off of the coast, while the GFS strengthens the 850mb low during its trek off to our south.

This will play a huge role in the total precip amounts for the I-85 corridor, especially in NC.

I feel the right idea at this point is to up the snow totals I had put out this morning.

Also, at this point, don't concern yourself with the convection near the Gulf. That is right ahead of the developing main surface low, and that is forecast to be there at this point. If by very early tomorrow morning precip is not blossoming in northern and central Alabama, then that is cause for concern for the forecast.

Many Carolina spots will likely see the precip begin as rain for a while before the rain/snow line establishes itself. Exactly where that sets up initially is tricky, but I would expect it to move eastward as we get toward late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

These are some general ideas.....

Charlotte: 2-5"
Triad: 2-4"
Raleigh: 2-5"
GSP: 3-6"
Atlanta: 3-6"

Now, it is very tricky as near ground temps will likely be a bit above freezing through the event. If the lower amounts of precip on some of the modeling verify, it will drastically cut down on snow accumulation potential. This is the type of event where it will take heavy rates of precipitation to get accumulating snow. So, if the precip remains light, significant accumulations will be difficult.

Like I mentioned this morning, of all of the winter weather threats we have seen this season, this one, in my opinion, is the toughest to forecast for a day before.