Robert's post....

Today and tomorrow will be about perfect. The rest of the weekend will be hard to beat as well. Temperatures throughout the entire forecast area today will make it to the mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s.

Tomorrow and Friday appear to make a run at the record high temperature. For Greensboro the record for April 1^st and 2^nd is 85 and 87. As of right now we are forecasting 83 and 87 which should be right at or close to the record highs set in 1986 and 1964.

When forecasting temperatures to a single or a couple degrees it is very difficult and highly variable. Many things influence these temperatures from height thickness which is based on temperatures throughout a pressure level in the upper atmosphere. Temperature advection from another region or pressure level can warm or cool an area through mixing of the planetary boundary level. Slight changes in wind speed or direction can bump or lower a high any given day. Cloud coverage and albedo levels of local topography greatly influence solar radiation absorption. Albedo level is basically a number for local topography ability to reflect or act as a pure black-body radiation source. Snow being bright white, reflects sunlight and would have a high albedo close to 1, and Asphalt being black, absorbs the sun's radiation leading to a low albedo number closer to 0. Urban areas with large areas of development retain heat better and longer than rural areas, leading to the nickname “heat islands”.

On given days when we have a purely westerly flow, which is not the case the next few days (south westerly flow), we receive extra warming through subsidence. When the westerly flow comes down the Appalachians the generalized air parcel in this case is pressurized adiabatically and warmed. It's like a pressure cooker where the air flow is slightly warmed by pressure. This phenomenon is seen quite frequently out west and is known as the Chinook or the Santa Ana winds depending on your location east or west of the Rockies. Chinook, which is a Pacific Northwest Native American word meaning snow eater, greatly influences wild fire season west of the Rockies. The Santa Ana winds are a local easterly wind that down slope off the Sierra Nevada's affecting California. Not only does this down sloping wind warm, the air parcel also loses moisture leaving it dry. The warming combined with low humidity levels is a nightmare for firefighters and has to be monitored closely during the season.

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

Warmer and warmer.....

Conditions continue to warm up. We will see sunshine continuing through the rest of the work week with highs getting warmer.....70s today, 80s tomorrow though Saturday.



Very quiet weather continues to unfold across our region. While we began the day with fairly cool conditions, we will continue our warming trend today with a sunny sky and highs in the mid 70s.

We will remain sunny the next several days, and the warming trend will continue as well. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with mid to upper 80s for Good Friday.

A fizzling cold front will drop into the region over the Easter weekend, but I anticipate no rain with the front and only a slight cool down behind it for Easter Sunday. However, even then, we are still looking at upper 70s or so for highs.

Low 80s should be back with us Monday and Tuesday before a stronger cold front moves through toward the middle of next week. There are some indications that some cooler temps could settle in for a while as we head into mid-April.

Kevin's chase....

Intern Kevin Smith went storm spotting during our severe weather outbreak Sunday evening. Here is a technical discussion he typed up....

I was on the storm that passed over Meck County around 8:30 and intercepted it in the Concord area when it blew up. Helicity was out the roof with shear readings around 100 knots! Looking at the skew-t I had the hodograph had nice curvature as well which again means very favorable shear for supercell genesis. The SWEAT index, which i was getting off RUC from model extractor, was showing SWEAT index of around 400 which is around severe to tornadic. MUCAPE was high enough to get some decent energy and CIN was low so it was easy to tap into the CAPE the was present at that time. Lifted Index was significantly negative I forgot what the exact number was but it was definitely in the severe range, must have had significant divergence aloft. If i remember correctly when the storm passed over

Concord at around 9 it had a pretty nice inflow notch associated with it. Bulk Richardson values were less than 45 which indicates supercell convection and it takes into account CAPE and Shear.

I'm not sure if the cell was under a right entrance or left exit region of a jet streak to maximize vertical motion for some reason i couldn't obtain a upper air map while i was quickly looking at all the ohter indices. These storms also seemed to have some good tilt to them thanks to great shear values which gave some of the cells a more defined FFD and RFD. I obtained all these values off model extractor and SPC along with accuweather pro. Hail was around quarter size, with windgust easily over 60 mph. Rainfall rates were around 4" an hour which is pretty incredible. Wish i could have made it up to High Point to catch that EF-3 but i wouldnt want to mess with that at night. Hopefully spring will bring us more days with interesting weather. We are the new tornado ally!

Kevin Smith
kbsmith@uncc.edu

Sunshine, getting warmer.....

In today's video, a look at the location and intensity of the tornadoes from Sunday evening, plus sunshine and increasingly warm weather for the rest of this Easter week....



We will see lots of sunshine today with highs in the upper 60s for most. It will be a bit breezy with winds out of the northwest gusting to 25mph or so at times.

We are entering a very quiet, warm, and sunny stretch of weather. Look for mid 70s tomorrow with sunshine, then highs warm into the 80s Thursday through Saturday.

A weakening cold front will approach Easter Sunday, but again this morning, I have left shower chances out of the forecast. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will drop back into the 70s.

Calmer times ahead....

A detailed look at the science behind our severe weather outbreak Sunday afternoon and evening, plus a look at what's ahead....



An outbreak of tornadic thunderstorms roared through the Carolinas into central Virginia Sunday evening. Lots of damage reports have come in, especially around High Point and portions of Davidson county as well. Belmont in Gaston county also received some pretty significant damage from an apparent tornado from the first storm of the event.

Please see the video above for a look at what made this system tick....

Our News 14 Carolina news crews are gathering information this morning and will provide much more information on this severe weather event as the day unfolds today. The NWS will conduct storm surveys today, but I anticipate much of the damage was in fact due to tornadoes.

As today unfolds, we will likely see additional scattered showers and a few storms develop this afternoon. Any storms that manage to develop could produce some hail due to very cold temperatures aloft.

Tomorrow will be the first in a series of dry weather days. I expect 60s for highs tomorrow with breezy conditions. By Wednesday, highs will warm into the 70s. How about mid 80s for Thursday-Saturday....all with a sunny sky.

Clouds will increase for Easter Sunday, but I have left the forecast dry for the time being.

I meant to post this earlier...showed this video on the air this morning. Video of a tornado just on the Davidson county side of the Davidson/ Rowan county line...along I-85.

5:20pm update....

Tornado Watch is hoisted for much of the region through this evening. Some pretty mean storms have begun to fire, and it sure looks like severe weather possibilities are with us into this evening.

Stay with News 14 Carolina on television for the very latest.

This is a scenario where a few waves of showers and storms are possible over the next several hours. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all possible.

Stay alert!

Quick Sunday morning post...

Need to keep a close eye on severe weather potential from late today through tonight. A potent storm system is moving our way, and while our airmass is quite stable this morning, a pretty strong low level jet will kick in today and provide at least some degree of instability. How much is a question mark.

Showers will become an increasing possibility as the day wears on along and west/north of I-85. The thunderstorm potential really comes into play in the Piedmont zones late today into tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the area in a 'slight' risk area for severe weather with this system. See the map below.

One key to watch today will be dewpoints. If dewpoints make it up into the mid 50s or higher, then the severe weather threat could be significant. If they stay below that threshold, then the severe weather threat will be more limited.

If we do see the severe threat materialize, damaging winds, some large hail, and even a few tornadoes would be possible.

If you have a NOAA weather radio (which I strongly encourage every home, business, and place of worship to have one), go ahead and have it in the alert position today and tonight.

And of course, keep in touch with News 14 Carolina on television. As always, we will be there with you to walk you through any potential active weather.

Robert's Post...

Clouds should begin to depart by this afternoon and remain clear through the day Saturday. Though clear today, expect temperatures to drop as we go through the morning and afternoon. A high of around 61 today has already been met or will be met again late this morning. A stiff Northerly wind will direct cool air into the area with sustained winds of around 15 mph. Saturday should see highs close to 60 with increasing clouds as we move into the overnight. Our next system should bring rain late into the afternoon on Sunday. Forecasted soundings currently show enough surface based CAPE to allow for a few thunderstorms to fire along the boundary. Convection outlook from SPC shows no real confidence, so expect little or no severe criteria to be met Sunday evening.


This morning Matthew and I were discussing the lag temperatures of the seasons and I figured it would make a good blog post. Basically when I say lag I mean the difference in time from solar wattage received and the time that radiation affects local temperatures. With the current solar declination angle, we receive the same amount of watts per meter squared as we do on September 15. The radiation received on a given day based on the sun's angle at a given latitude is known as solar insolation. However, we know that September 15 is much warmer than today with average daily temperatures 20 degrees warmer. This is because of differing heat capacities of the soils, oceans, and air.


Oceans have the highest capacity and air has the least. So the ocean takes longer to heat up and stays warmer longer as well. These lags affect many things beside the gradual warming or cooling of seasons. The local sea breeze on the coast is based on the daily temperature changes of the land along- side the steady ocean temperatures. Thermal differences sets up gradients and creates a local circulation, switching directions from daytime into the overnight (i.e land breeze and sea breeze). Hurricane season is also affected. The peak of hurricane season is in mid September when ocean temps are the highest; yet air temperatures are the highest in late July.


Locally in NC we have varying soil types from rocky, clay, and sandy. In the Piedmont we actually have a trough that sets up quite frequently due to the quick transition from clay soil to sandy soils. In the Summer this actually helps increases thunderstorm potential along this boundaries when instability is high. The higher moisture in clay differs greatly from the sandy soils setting up this local gradient.

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

Half and half weekend....

Today will not be a typical temperature day. Most NC Piedmont high temps will occur by around lunchtime today. Look for maybe mid 60s around Charlotte and midday temps near 60 for Triad zones. Temps will then fall through the 50s this afternoon. A little light rain is also possible.

The sky will quickly clear by this evening, and it will be a pretty cold night. Lows tomorrow morning will be in the lower 30s in many spot...even a few upper 20s look possible.

Half and half weekend coming up....look for sunshine tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

Our next system will roll in Sunday and bring some rain back into the region. Still some uncertainty as to how long the rain will hang around, but I will maintain at least some shower chance into Monday as well.

I expect an extended period of mild and dry weather from mid-week into most of the Easter weekend with highs well up into the 70s. I would not be shocked if a few 80 degree reading cropped up by the end of next week.

Shower chances knocking on the door....

High clouds are increasing and thickening today as our next storm system approaches. There is at least a limited severe weather threat today off to our west, especially in Mississippi and western Alabama, and while we won't see severe weather here, we will see showers as soon as tonight.

Today will be mild and breezy with highs in the lower 70s for most, even mid 70s in the eastern Carolinas. The bulk of the shower activity will be this evening and tonight, but I can't rule out a late-afternoon shower in the western and southern Piedmont.

Shower chances will end for most of us tomorrow morning, and our highs tomorrow will likely occur tomorrow morning with temps falling through the 50s tomorrow afternoon.

Lows Saturday morning will likely be close to the freezing mark in many locations. Highs will warm toward the upper 50s Saturday afternoon with lots of sun.

Our next system quickly rolls in Sunday. Sunday could begin with some drizzle, and rain will arrive as the day unfolds. Whether or not the rain will linger into Monday remains a question mark at this point.

Sunshine will return, along with milder temps, by the middle of next week.

Wonderful Wednesday!

Just a fantastic weather day today....sunshine and 70s....doesn't get much better than that!

High clouds will increase and thicken tomorrow out ahead of our next storm system. However, it will still be a mild day with highs in the lower 70s for most.

Shower chances arrive Thursday night and will extend into Friday. Highs Friday will be in the 60s.

True arctic air will have settled into the Great Lakes and New England states by Friday, and some of that colder air will bleed in here this weekend. Saturday should remain dry with highs in the upper 50s. Saturday will get off to a cold start as well with many folks likely well down into the 30s.

Our next system will roll in Sunday. The models are all over the place on this one. The GFS is the quickest of the models, both in the system's arrival and departure. The European is much stronger and slower with the system, and the Canadian is in between. For the time being, I will mention rain rolling in later Sunday and keep shower chances in place through much of Monday. Highs Sunday might struggle to make the lower side of the 50s as well.

Improving conditions....

The big upper level low that has brought the chilly and cloudy weather is slowly pulling away today. For a little while longer this morning, we could see a little light rain around portions of the region, but that chance is ending quickly.

Clouds will erode around the region today, and highs should warm into the lower 60s in many spots.

Terrific weather is on tap for tomorrow with highs in the low to even some mid 70s with sunshine and high clouds.

Clouds will really increase Thursday ahead of our next system that will bring some showers Friday.

Chillier weather will be with us this weekend as we have a cold air damming set-up on the way. Highs could be in the 50s both days. The next rain-producing system will then roll in later Sunday into Monday.

See the video for details. True arctic air will reside off to our north by this weekend, and that will get pushed down into our area by the cold air damming. I feel odds are we will wind up with a frost or freeze threat somewhere this weekend or early next week.....

Upper low overhead today.....

A cold core upper level low is overhead today and tonight. One of the primary characteristics of upper air low is cold air aloft. Due to that, I will maintain the risk of a passing shower or two today and tonight. Temps today will likely max out in the mid to upper 50s to around 60 for most, and it will be fairly breezy.

As temps drop into the 30s tonight, don't be surprised to see a few snow flakes mix in with any showers that push through.

Clouds should gradually erode tomorrow with highs in the lower 60s.

Wednesday looks great with low to mid 70s and lots of sun. Clouds increase again Thursday with showers likely Thursday night into Friday.

In terms of basketball, my Bulldogs suffered another heart-breaking loss to end their season. UNC hit a shot with two seconds remaining to win in Starkville Saturday afternoon.

In the NCAA tournament, my bracket took a big shot across the bow Saturday evening when Kansas went down. They were my national championship team. My other 3 final four teams are still alive.

Robert's Post....

Today and Tomorrow will be about perfect if you ask me. I couldn't ask for better weather conditions for the first day of spring tomorrow. We will see temperatures around 72 and 75 for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures in the 40s over night. Our next weather maker will be Sunday night into the overnight hours. Currently it looks to be mainly showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. This doesn't look to be a widespread severe event for us due to lack of instability (Cape,lapse rates) shear will be around so if we can get some storms to fire off along the frontal boundary then we could see a few severe warnings issued.

I have been looking at some literature on recent and forecasted solar activity. In the 11 year cycle we are currently exiting the minimum phase. Generally this means we have had low sunspot activity on the sun. Theoretically the more sun spots the more radiation is emitted towards the earth which can affect satellites, satellite transmissions, magnetic fields, and even global climate. It is believed that for the past 50 years we have been in a highly active phase and we are beginning to shift to a very low period or solar minimum. Some studies even show that this solar minimum can even counter global carbon based warming.

The most well documented minimum occurred during the period of 1645-1715, known as the Maunder Minimum. Coincidentally or not it match up with The Little Ice Age of that same period. This period saw the coldest average global temperatures in over a 1000 years. However scientist have yet to be able to connect the Little Ice Age to solar activity. Other reasons could be connected to high volcanic activity, global ocean currents variability, or even the huge die off of humans during the black plaque and Columbia exchange, which would have limited carbon emissions.

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

Wonderful Weather!

We get to enjoy some absolutely wonderful weather today and tomorrow across the region. More on that in a second.

What a great first day of the NCAA Tournament yesterday. The first four games were decided by a total of 12 points and included a double overtime game. Lots of other good games through the remainder of the day as well. Thoroughly enjoyed the action.

My bracket is still in pretty good shape. All of my Elite 8 teams are still alive, and I only have lost one Sweet 16 team.

My Bulldogs (I am still recovering from the devastating loss to Kentucky last Sunday) host North Carolina in the NIT tomorrow. This week has been spring break for the MSU students, so while it probably won't be as rowdy as a normal basketball game is at The Hump, I hope it is still packed and a great atmosphere. Go State!

Back to the weather, we will have sunshine with highs in the low to mid 70s today and mid 70s tomorrow. Spring officially begins tomorrow afternoon, and we get to welcome Spring with some fantastic weather.

I think we will squeeze in a large portion of Sunday with dry weather before showers and some storms arrive by Sunday night. A few strong storms are possible, but it is not a great severe weather setup here. It bears watching though.

Clouds will linger at times with cooler temps Monday and Tuesday, and a stray shower also looks possible as the upper level low moves right overhead.

Wednesday and Thursday will feature a good but of sun with highs warming back up to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

From Robert.....

Cloudy conditions for most of the day with clearing skies as we go into the overnight. The rain should stay along the coast with little or no chance for a shower here today. Friday and Sunday will be about perfect with temps in the low 70s.

For the most part the weather for the U.S is quiet so there isn't much to talk about. It is still a little early for me to consider a tropical outlook for the Atlantic so I will concentrate on basketball.

OK, I know you all are going to roll your eyes but lets talk NIT. We may have a possible in-office match up. Matthew is a Mississippi State grad and I am a NC State grad, if MSU beats Carolina (please) and NC State beats UAB we will play in the third round. However, if Matthew's team can't pull it out we still get to play Carolina in Carmichael. The potential to beat Carolina in Carmichael would be pretty magical. Being a NC State fan though we all know how things will turn out, a UAB blowout.

As for the NCAA tournament I always try to stay away from favorites that all the analysts are picking.

Some of my underdogs advancing from the first round: N Iowa, SDSU, Ga Tech, Wofford, Washington,

Missouri, Minnesota.

Final Four: Syracuse, Texas AM, Kansas, W Virginia

Champion: Syracuse

Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com

Clouds hanging around today...

An area of low pressure continues to slowly spin off the coast near Wilmington today. The low pressure is throwing a lot of cloud cover back through the region today. Rain will fall along the coast and coastal plain, and some light rain is possible across the Piedmont at times today. Highs around the Piedmont will be in the mid to upper 60s for most.

Terrific weather is on tap tomorrow and Saturday with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s.

Our next system will bring us a chance of showers and a couple of storms by later Sunday and Sunday night.

I have adjusted the forecast for early next week a bit. It will be cooler Monday and Tuesday, but as of now, it does not look as cold during that time frame as it did previously. So, I will go with 50s for highs Monday, then back into the 60s by Tuesday.

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

Quiet and milder weather for much of the region on this St. Patrick's Day. Highs should warm into the low to mid 60s, generally speaking, around the region. Temps will be closer to 60 around Charlotte and closer to the mid 60s around RDU. The reason....clouds. The clouds will get thinner and thinner the farther northeast you go in the region.

An area of low pressure, this morning located along the Gulf coast, will move to just off the Carolina coast tonight into tomorrow. This will spread lots of high clouds into the Piedmont and spread some rain through southern Georgia, Florida, and into coastal parts of the Carolinas, south of the Outer Banks.

For the Piedmont, we stay dry with highs tomorrow warming into the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday and Saturday look glorious with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s.

A sharp cold front will approach Sunday and bring the chance of some showers and storms. Behind that front, it will be much chillier by Monday with highs returning to the 50s and the likelihood of sub-freezing temps for much of the region by Tuesday morning.

Quiet work week weather continues....

Our relatively quiet work week weather continues. The big coastal low that caused all of the flooding problems in the New England and upper mid-Atlantic states continues to slowly pull farther out to sea. We will see an increase in the clouds again this afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.

We begin to warm things up again tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 60s. Look for upper 60s Thursday.

Delightful weather will be with us Friday and Saturday with highs in the low to maybe even some mid 70s and lots of sunshine!

Our next system rolls in Sunday and will bring some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. Behind that system, it will be much cooler by Monday and Tuesday with highs likely returning to the 50s.

The GFS continues to want to hang a piece of energy back and generate some precip Monday. I have not bought into that scenario as of now, and with this morning's forecast package, I have just left in some clouds for Monday with no precip.

Back at it....

Back in the saddle this morning. Thanks for all of the well-wishes. I continue to battle a lot of knee swelling...we will see what the doctor says later this week.

Give this morning's video a watch....even though the weather is fairly quiet, there are some interesting things to look at.

Wow, just a heart-breaking loss for my Bulldogs yesterday to Kentucky. They absolutely played their guts out, were leading by 5 points with :30 seconds left, and Kentucky winds up tipping the ball in with 0.1 left to send the game to overtime. Now, I don't like complaining about officiating, and overall, the game was officiated fairly well. But, at the end of the game, two errors really hurt MSU. With 4.9 seconds left, KY intentionally misses a FT, and John Wall commits and obvious lane violation. That doesn't get called. Not only that, the clock did not start on time, so the shot that went in with 0.1 left should never have wound up counting. And just to add insult to injury, it winds up MSU did not receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Sorry to the vent here. I love Mississippi State, and those guys gave it everything they had. To come up short like that is just painful.

OK, enough of that. On to the weather. A big upper low is spinning off of the New England coast and continues to cause lots of beach erosion issues and interior flooding up that way. Around here, we are too far removed from the low for any precipitation, but we will continue to see a good amount of cloud cover at times the next few days. Highs today will be near 60, and it will be fairly breezy at times.

A delightful finish to the week is ahead for Friday and Saturday. Look for lots of sunshine and highs warming to around 70. A strong cold front will move through Sunday, bringing a chance of showers. Behind the front, it will be significant colder for Monday.

Saturday....

I am slipping back into the groove of things slowly. Beautiful morning out there after a wet and stormy evening yesterday. I expect scattered showers and storms this afternoon into early evening.

It is interesting, the end result is really kind of like a summertime day. The heating of the day provides enough instability to kick off the scattered showers and storms. Highs will only be in the 60s today, so obviously, the airmass will not really seemingly be that unstable. However, due to a nearby upper level low (see 500mb chart below), the result is about the same as a summer day. The reason is upper level lows are characterized by very cold air aloft in the atmosphere. So, the upper levels today will be colder than the lower levels even though the lower levels will not be all that warm.....thus, instability for scattered showers/ storms. There you go....quick little bit of weekend meteorology for you....

I think I have turned the corner with my knee recovering from surgery. I was able to do all of my walking yesterday without crutches. There is still a lot of swelling and soreness I am working through, but as far as recovering from the surgery, I am probably back to about 75% or 80%. I will have my post-op appointment Wednesday and see what the test results showed. If the surgeon's initial hunch is correct, it will likely be on to a rheumatologist to find the source of the recurrent swelling since structurally, the knee was in good shape. Keep in mind, we are not talking about a little swelling occasionally....we are talking about fairly grotesque, very significant amounts of swelling every week to ten days. So, I would love to find the solution....

Many of you know I am a huge sports fan, especially college sports. I am a Mississippi State alumnus, and my Bulldogs beat Florida in the SEC tournament yesterday. Today, we play Vanderbilt in Nashville. Tough game. If we win though, I think odds are good that we will make the NCAA tournament. If we lose, it is a long shot. Game is on ABC this afternoon.

Enjoy the weekend....my plan is to be back in the weather office Monday morning.

Rain and some storms this evening....

Rain and storms will roll through the region this evening. The storms near the leading edge of the activity (area generally circled in red in the radar image above, from around 6pm) have been strengthening over the past hour or so.

A couple of strong to severe storms are certainly possible. Some heavy rain, gusty winds, hail, and lightning are possible with the stronger storms.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television for the latest.

Robert's post....

Blog 3/11/2010



Well if you like cloudy weather and off and on showers then the next few days are for you. Expect showers to arrive late morning today through this evening. Today will most likely be our heaviest rain day unless we get a heavy thunderstorm Friday. Showers through Sunday will be few and passing with light amounts. Temperatures should stay above normal through the weekend with temperatures in the mid 60s staying well above freezing at night.

There is a small chance for thunderstorms today and tomorrow but storms if any shouldn’t reach severe criteria. We will have the shearing of the winds to support severe weather but CAPE levels are far too low and will suppress development from occurring.

Yesterday appeared to be our first highly active severe day of the season. From the Southern Plains to the Gulf region, multiple tornado watches and severe watches were posted from the afternoon until the late evening. There were reports (see map) of Hail, wind, and tornadoes with even some injuries.

The reason why the spring is so active for severe weather is because of the winter fighting the summer for domination of Continental air mass. Between these two air-masses we have the Jet stream which separates the two. Along with the fronts, boundaries, lows, and deep Gulf moisture we have high CAPE values and high shear levels. CAPE is the convective available potential energy that allows air to rise during storm events. The higher the cape the more air that is available to rise and create thunderstorms. The Cape is high because the surface is warming rapidly during the day and the upper levels remain very cold because of the jet above. Since hot air rises, it rises even faster when there is cold air above. As for the shear, the shear organizes the storm and allows for them to become severe dropping large hail, winds, or even tornados. Since the Jet is so far south still the strong winds above spin and strengthen with height, organizing the storms. Once we hit the summer the Jet scoots back up to Canada and we see our severe chances drop for the South.

Robert Elvington

Still out of action.....

My original plan had been to come back to work this morning, but all things considered yesterday, it seemed best to not push it and plan to return Monday instead. The swelling and pain get a touch better each day, but there is still a lot of instability in the knee.....and fairly often it will 'give way' when I am trying to shuffle around. So, thought it best to give it a few more days. Besides, don't need to make a youtube clip of me collapsing on air.....

In terms of the weather, flooding rains have occurred in parts of the Deep South, especially Alabama into parts of Georgia. This is a slow-moving upper air pattern, and one disturbance after another keeps moving our way.

For the NC Piedmont, it looks like later today into tonight we will see a wave of rain move through and then another way probably Friday evening/night. Some thunderstorms could be involved, and a couple of strong ones too.

Check the SPC Products as well as the Radar and Satellite pages here on the site for the latest in that regard.

All right, that's enough from me. Time to elevate the leg some more. I believe Robert Elvington is putting together a post for you that I will post for you sometime soon....

Recovering

Thanks for the well-wishes regarding my surgery. I am slowly recovering. Obviously, still a lot of knee pain and stiffness, but I can now lift my leg and hold it a few seconds this morning. That's an improvement. Still will be on crutches for a couple of days.

I haven't been able to look at much weather stuff, so forgive my lack of getting into that this morning.

Just wanted to let you know that I am still alive and kicking!

Enjoy a great Sunday.....

Robert's post...

Here is Robert's blog post. Especially note the last section where Robert previewed the upcoming severe weather season....

With Tuesday's system long gone expect the Piedmont to remain quiet with gradual warming through the entire weekend. Temperatures today will reach into the lower 50s, with breezy conditions ending today. The weekend should be warmer with temps nearing 60, Saturday through Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday should be our next system. As of right now all signs point towards rain. Models are all showing rain currently with this track and climatology just doesn't favor another winter storm. However, like always we will keep an eye on it with every new model run.

Since things are relatively quiet I have begun looking at the upcoming spring severe weather season for NC. Technically the deep South is already in the beginning of sever weather season going by climatology. In the Past NC has seen many severe events this early in the season. Interesting to note that the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman Oklahoma, the agency that issues tornado and severe T-storm watches for the entire US, reported not a single tornado for the US in the month of February. This is the first time in the 60 years that they have been keeping record. Could this be an indicator of the upcoming season? Most likely not. With an EL NINO signature quickly fading to a normal global pattern expect a storm season to still develop on Schedule or a little later. For a preliminary forecast I will call for an average amount of storm days and severe watches for the area, with a few strong events while the southern jet is still affecting the Southeast. Just a fun guess so we will see how it pans out.

Robert Elvington

robert.elvington@gmail.com

Tranquil weather for a little while...

A quiet stretch of weather is unfolding across much of the eastern US. For our region, that will translate into a lot of sunshine and each day getting a little milder then the previous day.

Today will still be a bit chilly and breezy with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

Tomorrow we will see highs close to 50, then mid to maybe upper 50s Saturday, maybe low 60s Sunday, and highs up into the 60s Monday.

Our next storm system will roll through Tuesday into Wednesday. There is not a lot of model agreement on the track of this system, but for the Carolinas southward, I think odds are this winds up being a rain producer.

I get the idea that around mid-month or so, we will head back into a colder pattern for a while.

Under the knife.... I am having arthroscopic knee surgery in the morning, so I will not be in the weather office for several days. I will try to make a couple of blog and/or twitter posts at times, but no new videos until at least the middle of next week. I appreciate your patience!

Wednesday.....

Please see today's video for a detailed wrap-up of the snow event yesterday and last night. On a regional scale, the accumulation forecast I put out worked out pretty well. I had gone with 2-4" for the Triad area, and in most spots, that verified pretty nicely. It looks like the forecast will work out well for much of the RDU area over into northeastern NC and back into the foothills, mountains, and northern Georgia as well.

I mentioned a strip of heavier totals would likely occur, and it did....from the mountains into the foothills and Virginia border counties in the Triad viewing area.

However, the accumulation forecast busted badly from western sections of Charlotte through Gaston and Cleveland counties and down into the Upstate. Plenty of snow fell, but it really struggled to accumulate in this area.

Why? In the Triad, the temp dropped to 33 while the snow was occurring in many spots, and that was good enough to accumulate. For Charlotte back through Gastonia, Shelby, and GSP, the temp dropped to around 34 in many of those places, and accumulations were tough to come by. It did not snow any harder in the Triad than it did in the southern Piedmont. So, the best I can figure is that with the March sun angle, 34 degrees and snow has a tough time accumulating, while 33 degrees and snow accumulated much more easily. At least that is how it worked this time around.

An interesting system, and one I have been tracking with you for well over a week now. Time to put this one to bed and move ahead....

Blustery and cold conditions today with highs in the 40s. Some residual slick spots this morning, especially in the areas that had heavier snow totals.

Each day will get a little milder than the previous one. Tomorrow highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50....by Saturday mid to upper 50s, and maybe some lower 60s by Monday.

We will stay dry through the weekend, and the weekend will be terrific for any outdoor plans you might have.

The next chance of rain arrives Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

Tuesday evening....

For the western Carolinas, the event is winding down. In the Piedmont, the Triad region was the big winner in terms of snow amounts. 5" on the ground in Surry County....at least 2-3" for much of the rest of the viewing area. We will see what transpires in RDU and points eastward tonight.

Much of the Charlotte region and the Upstate got the short end of the stick in terms of accumulations. A dusting to and inch for some, but overall, the accumulations were disappointing in that part of the region. Still some more minor accumulations could occur east and south of I-85 for a little while longer this evening.

It looks like for the Charlotte region, the combination of the snow falling during the day and surface temps only dipping to 34 degrees or so through the day really hurt accumulations. The Triad did ok, and temps hovered around 33 much of the day there. That degree can mean the difference in grassy accumulations and nothing.

As always, I will take a look at the accumulation totals in tomorrow morning's video and blog post and see how everything turned out. I never hide from my forecast....and I will publicly critique it as always.

I want to take a moment and give a big thank you for following the blog and videos. It is humbling to me that you take the time to stop by. Keep on stopping by even though the winter season is winding down. We always have some interesting weather to talk about, if not here then somewhere close by. I will keep the daily posts and video going as always right through the warm weather season.....we will have severe weather, flooding, and the tropics to discuss among other things. So, if you have an interest in the weather, don't be a stranger!

Quick afternoon hit.....

Lots of big, beautiful snowflakes falling around the region this afternoon. Really a nice sight.

The snow is having a really tough time accumulating due to the early March sun angle and temps just above freezing. So, I have a feeling this is really going to cut into the snow accumulations in a lot of places.

So, hopefully, for the folks wanting accumulations, you will get what you want. If nothing else, at least we got to see some beautiful daytime snow.....

Midday update....

Band of moderate to heavy snow looks to set up shop in a wide swath centered near I-85. High rates of snow will really crank up in parts of Georgia up into the Upstate and likely up into parts of the NC Piedmont in time. Modeling has come into fairly good agreement, and we will likely see that band of moderate to heavy snow gradually pivot up through N GA, SC, and the NC Piedmont and shift eastward with time.

Accumulation amounts are going to vary greatly depending on where the heavier embedded bands set up. Would not be surprised to see some 6+" amounts somewhere around the region while others see only minor accumulations. 

The heavier snow bands could very well develop over into eastern parts of NC as well by this evening.

Those that are getting the snow....enjoy!

Difficult forecast....

I can not remember a tougher snow accumulation forecast off-hand. The entire atmosphere across much of the region is sub-freezing until you get down to the surface and just above. Because of that above freezing air near the ground, it will take some heavier rates of precip to get the precip to be snow and not rain, at least initially.

As of now, I am not making any huge changes to my going forecast, but I have changed the orientation of the accumulation areas a bit. For the Triad, Charlotte and into the foothills, I will go with 2-4" with some locally higher amounts, mainly northwest of I-85.

Around RDU, especially just east of there, right up through northeastern NC I have another area of 2-4". From Atlanta to Columbia along I-40 and points north I have 2-4" as well. Most other areas are in the dusting to 2" category.

There will likely be a strip that sees in excess of 4 or even 5 inches, but where that sets up is still very tricky. Other areas that do not get the heavier rates of precip will have a tough time seeing accumulations at all. See the video for details.

It will be cold and breezy tomorrow, and temps remain in the 40s for highs through Friday. Warmer weather rolls in this weekend and early next week.

Afternoon thoughts....

Quick thoughts here.....the upper low is departing the NE coastline as expected, and our next system is looking very healthy in eastern Texas. Looking at the upper level features comparing what is actually occurring to the 12z 6 hour forecasts of the NAM and GFS, and frankly both models are doing a pretty decent job. The GFS is handling the current precip to our west better than the NAM.

Almost all modeling has come in wetter with the precip amounts. The NAM keeps the heaviest precip just south of a Charlotte to just south of Raleigh line. The GFS continued the trend I showed on the video this morning with its 12z run of increasing precip totals a bit further.

The reason the GFS is wetter than the NAM is its handling of the upper level features as we head through tomorrow. The NAM weakens the 850mb low for a short time before strengthening it off of the coast, while the GFS strengthens the 850mb low during its trek off to our south.

This will play a huge role in the total precip amounts for the I-85 corridor, especially in NC.

I feel the right idea at this point is to up the snow totals I had put out this morning.

Also, at this point, don't concern yourself with the convection near the Gulf. That is right ahead of the developing main surface low, and that is forecast to be there at this point. If by very early tomorrow morning precip is not blossoming in northern and central Alabama, then that is cause for concern for the forecast.

Many Carolina spots will likely see the precip begin as rain for a while before the rain/snow line establishes itself. Exactly where that sets up initially is tricky, but I would expect it to move eastward as we get toward late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

These are some general ideas.....

Charlotte: 2-5"
Triad: 2-4"
Raleigh: 2-5"
GSP: 3-6"
Atlanta: 3-6"

Now, it is very tricky as near ground temps will likely be a bit above freezing through the event. If the lower amounts of precip on some of the modeling verify, it will drastically cut down on snow accumulation potential. This is the type of event where it will take heavy rates of precipitation to get accumulating snow. So, if the precip remains light, significant accumulations will be difficult.

Like I mentioned this morning, of all of the winter weather threats we have seen this season, this one, in my opinion, is the toughest to forecast for a day before.

Next system rolling our way....

I will say right off of the bat....this is a fairly low-confidence forecast. As I mentioned back on Friday, with as much model agreement as there was, you were simply waiting on complications to arise. And they did over the weekend, and they continue as I type.

Some models are very dry with the precip output from our next system, while others are much wetter, and getting wetter (GFS). For my forecast package this morning, I have leaned in the direction of the wetter models for a couple of reasons. First of all, the seasonal trend has been for systems to over-perform on precip output. Secondly, the system looks very impressive as of now.

Ahead of the system, today will be quiet with increasing clouds and highs in the lower 50s. Tonight will be cloudy with lows close to freezing.

For the Carolinas, precip will arrive very early in the day tomorrow. Initially some rain could be involved, but I think very quickly locations roughly along and north of I-85 transition to primarily snow. As the low pressure strengthens along the coast, the rain/snow line will gradually shift eastward.

In terms of potential accumulations, see my map below. Keep in mind....this is my preliminary outlook....changes could be made as we go forward.

For the Triad, I will go with a general 1-3" snow. Much the same for RDU, although it gets trickier as you head east due slightly warmer surface temps. Eastern NC accumulations will all depend on how strong the low is as it cranks off of the coast.

For the Charlotte region, I will go with a general 1-3" area just north and west of town with 2-4" along and just south of I-85 down through the Upstate and into parts of northern Georgia. Again, see the map below.

Please note that if the drier modeling verifies, this forecast will bust badly. But those are my thoughts as of now. Time will tell.