Quick Sunday morning Alex thoughts...

Alex is inland over the Yucatan this morning, and the system has actually gotten more organized structurally while over land. The more Alex maintains its inner core while over land, the quicker strengthening will occur once over the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that we will see Alex as a strengthening system over the Gulf.

In terms of Alex's next landfall, the models are really divided into two camps this morning. The GFS and Canadian model take Alex northward toward the upper Texas or even Louisiana coast, while most other models take Alex more westward into Mexico.

The eventual track of Alex will all depend on the specifics up the upper air pattern over the US later this week. The big change in our weather coming this week in our weather has to do with a significant trough digging into the eastern US. The specifics of how this pattern sets up will determine Alex's eventual track.

Interesting to watch. I want to see how the models behave today before really trying to commit to one idea or the other.

Enjoy your Sunday. I might wind up posting something else later today, but if not, I will have a full post and video bright and early in the morning...

Below is this morning's spread in computer model guidance....