Relief has arrived!....Hurricane Alex set to make landfall...

The big weather story around our region is the end of the hot weather pattern that we have been in the grips of for most of June. Yesterday was a fairly unsettled day with lots of showers and storms through the southern Piedmont over into the coastal Plain. Today, that zone of rain chances shifts every so slightly southward as cooler and drier air begins the process of working in.

For the Triad, most spots should have a dry day, although a few showers are possible in southern sections of the viewing area. For the Charlotte region, some showers and storms are possible, but the farther south and east you go, the more widespread the activity should become.

Highs today will only be in the low to mid 80s....a welcome change!

Tomorrow and Friday look simply terrific....highs in the lower 80s tomorrow, low to mid 80s Friday. Both days will feature lots of sunshine and low humidity values.

For the Independence Day weekend, it still looks nice with mid to upper 80s for highs and lots of sunshine.

The forecast gets a bit more complicated next week as a coastal low might try to form in addition to some warmer temps trying to move in from the west.

Hurricane Alex....

Alex continues to strengthen this morning. As of the 5am advisory, Alex was a Category 1 hurricane with 80mph sustained winds. Alex could become a Category 2 hurricane prior to its northern Mexico landfall tonight.

Flooding will likely be a big problem in northern Mexico into parts of Texas and Louisiana.

One more hot day...Alex strengthening...

What a scorcher yesterday....mid to upper 90s for most of the region....even a few 100 degree readings.

Today will still be fairly hot with highs in the lower 90s for most. A few showers and storms will again be possible today, and the greatest coverage will likely be the farther south and east you go in the region.

Much cooler air will begin arriving tomorrow, and highs will be in the lower 80s in many spots. Tomorrow will feature a good deal of clouds, and some passing showers or storms are possible from time to time.

The weather looks delightful Thursday through the Independence Day weekend with 80s for highs and lower 60s for lows....maybe even some upper 50s in spots. Humidity values will be much lower...all in all, terrific weather ahead!

Alex....

Alex is just below the hurricane threshold as of the 5am advisory this morning with 70mph sustained winds. Alex will likely become a hurricane later today.

It still looks like Alex will come ashore relatively close to the Texas/ Mexico border as a hurricane...likely overnight tomorrow night.

Major pattern chance right around the corner...Alex strengthening...

Some big weather changes this week around here...plus I discuss Alex in detail in today's video....



We will have another day of heat and humidity today, but some major weather changes are just around the corner. But first, another steamy day today with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values exceeding 100 degrees at times this afternoon.

A strong cold front is approaching the region, and out ahead of that front, we will see some scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Storms could produce damaging winds and lots of lightning.

That front will temporarily stall out in our region tomorrow into Wednesday, and I will continue to mention the chance of a few showers and storms both of those days, although the farther south and east you go, the greater the coverage of showers and storms will be.

Relief!

Highs Wednesday will only be in the 80s, and then Thursday into the upcoming weekend look terrific with 80s for highs, lower 60s for lower, and low levels of humidity. I still feel some spots could wind up in the upper 50s for lows later in the week.

For the Fourth on Sunday, warm and dry with highs in the 80s.

Alex...

Alex is strengthening this morning, and I feel the system will become a hurricane relatively soon. In fact, it is possible Alex could become a major hurricane over the next few days. Alex will make an eventual landfall likely on the Texas or Mexican coast.

Quick Sunday morning Alex thoughts...

Alex is inland over the Yucatan this morning, and the system has actually gotten more organized structurally while over land. The more Alex maintains its inner core while over land, the quicker strengthening will occur once over the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that we will see Alex as a strengthening system over the Gulf.

In terms of Alex's next landfall, the models are really divided into two camps this morning. The GFS and Canadian model take Alex northward toward the upper Texas or even Louisiana coast, while most other models take Alex more westward into Mexico.

The eventual track of Alex will all depend on the specifics up the upper air pattern over the US later this week. The big change in our weather coming this week in our weather has to do with a significant trough digging into the eastern US. The specifics of how this pattern sets up will determine Alex's eventual track.

Interesting to watch. I want to see how the models behave today before really trying to commit to one idea or the other.

Enjoy your Sunday. I might wind up posting something else later today, but if not, I will have a full post and video bright and early in the morning...

Below is this morning's spread in computer model guidance....

Hello, Alex....

TD 1 strengthened to tropical storm intensity overnight....thus, we have Alex. Alex continues to organize, but will move into the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight.

Alex will then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico around early Monday morning. At that point, it appears conditions would likely be supportive of strengthening again.

Alex will make another landfall down the line next week, but where is obviously a tough question. At this point, I am leaning toward south Texas or northern Mexico, but there is some chance, especially the stronger the system is, that it heads much farther north in the Gulf.

If you have interests from the central Gulf coast all of the way down through Mexico, you need to closely monitor Alex's progress.

TD 1 is born...

The recon plane found a well-defined surface circulation when investigating the disturbance in the Caribbean this afternoon....thus TD 1 is born. The seems to be getting better organized as well.

I have tons of good information for you available right on the 'Tropical Weather' section of my site, linked on the left.

Remaining hot this weekend....relief on the way...

A weak frontal boundary has stalled out around the region, but we will not see a significant cool down through the weekend. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with mid to even upper 90s through the weekend. It will remain quite muggy as well.

Some afternoon storms will be possible, especially today and tomorrow, with the greater chances for showers and storms will be the farther south you head around the region. Like we have been seeing the past several days, any storms that do fire could produce damaging winds and frequent lightning.

A major pattern change is on the way next week. A strong cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday and bring good shower and storm chances. Behind that front, much cooler, drier air will arrive. In fact, the airmass looks downright delightful Wednesday through the end of the week with some low to mid 80s for highs, lower 60s for lows, and much, much less humidity.

Tropics...

Our disturbance in the Caribbean Sea continues to get better organized, and there is a decent chance this becomes a tropical depression before interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula. From there, the system will likely head toward the northern or western Gulf coast. Stay tuned....

Another scorcher....but relief in sight....

Wednesday was the hottest day of the year thus far in many spots around the region, and today will be just as hot, if not a degree or two hotter. Look for lots of upper 90s today with heat index values over 100 and even over 105 at times this afternoon. Please take it easy with any outdoor plans.

A weakening frontal boundary is approaching our region, and that will bring with it the chance of some showers and storms. A few storms will likely fire this afternoon and this evening, and any storms that pop could produce vivid lightning and the possibility of damaging winds.

Tomorrow's forecast all depends on how far south that weak front makes it. For the time being, I will maintain pretty good chances of scattered showers and storms, but be aware, it might wind up being the higher rain chances are the farther south you head.

This weekend, the front will gradually wash out, and the rain chances will diminish. I still expect a few storms around, but the heat will remain a significant weather story with mid 90s Saturday and mid to upper 90s Sunday.

Relief is in sight....

A major pattern change will occur next week. A strong cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday, and along with it will come good shower and storm chances.

Behind that front, significantly cooler, drier air looks to take hold around mid-week and extend through much of the rest of the week. How about some mid 80s for highs with much lower humidity?!?!

Tropics...

Still watching our disturbance in the Caribbean. It is slowly trying to organize, but the convection associated with the wave is still disorganized. A recon plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today if necessary.

Scorching pattern continues...

The heat marches on around the region today. In fact, highs today will likely be the hottest they have been during this stretch of hot weather with mid to upper 90s around the region. Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees at times this afternoon, and the air quality is in the Code Orange category for most sections.

In terms of rain chances, I do expect some isolated showers and storms to fire off this afternoon, but they will likely be few and far between. What storms do form could cause some damaging winds and frequent lightning.

More of the day tomorrow with mid to upper 90s and only a few late day storms. Many Sandhills locations could hit the century mark tomorrow.

A weakening frontal boundary will drop in here Friday and give us a little better chance of seeing some scattered showers and storms. Highs will back down into the low to mid 90s as well.

This weekend, I will mention the chance for a few storms Saturday with mid 90s for highs....then mainly dry Sunday with mid to possibly upper 90s.

A pattern change is in the offing next week. At this point, it looks like we have a chance at seeing some significantly cooler air by mid-week.....maybe 80s for highs?!?!

Tropics....

Our disturbance in the Caribbean Sea continues to struggle to organize. Thus far, it has been unable to do so. However, a lot of modeling continues to indicate development potential with this, and if anything can develop, it will likely wind up in the Gulf later this weekend.

Hot fun in the summertime....

Today marks the first full day of summer, and there will be no mistaking the seasons today. Highs will be in the mid 90s for most spots, and heat index values could exceed 100 degrees at times. Also, the air quality will be in the Code Orange category for the Charlotte, Triad, and Triangle zones today, so sensitive groups need to limit the amount of time spent outside.

A couple of storms made it out of the mountains yesterday into the foothills. Today, I think anywhere across the region is fair game to see a few afternoon storms fire. The storms will be few and far between, but the storms that do develop could pack a punch with some gusty winds and frequent lightning.

More of the same is on the way tomorrow and Thursday with mid to even some upper 90s for highs and a few PM storms.

A weakening frontal boundary will drop in here Friday into the weekend, and that will enhance the chance of scattered storms a bit and back our highs down just a bit into the low to mid 90s.

Tropics....

Nothing organized yet, but lots of rumblings in the Caribbean Sea. Odds seem to be increasing that something will pop in that region relatively soon.

Summer's official arrival...

Summer's official arrival occurs this morning at 7:28am. At that point, the sun will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer. That also means today features the longest duration of daylight of the year.

The weather has been under the impression that it has been summer for a while now, and the heat will march on this week. Lots of low to mid 90s today, then primarily mid 90s tomorrow through Thursday.
Today looks dry around the Piedmont, but a few isolated late-day storms are possible tomorrow through Thursday. Better chances of some scattered storms look to arrive for Friday and the weekend.

Tropics...

All is quiet now, but there are some indications on modeling of something trying to spin up within the next 10 days. In fact, both the 0z European and 0z Canadian model today develop a system out of the Caribbean Sea and bring it as a hurricane to the central Gulf coast June 30. Nothing to be concerned about, but interesting to note....

Quiet Friday....getting hotter and muggier this weekend

Most of the region was dry yesterday and last night. However, there was a fairly narrow corridor near the NC/SC border area that saw a few isolated showers and storms, and it is in that same region where a few isolated storms could fire again today. Most spots, though, will again be dry, and highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with continued slightly lower humidity levels.

It will be getting a bit hotter and muggier over the weekend. Tomorrow will feature lowers 90s for highs, and highs by Father's Day will warm into the mid 90s in many spots. It will also be getting muggier, and due to that fact, a few isolated storms are possible anywhere across the region. However, the chance of rain in any one spot remains small.

Next week looks hot and muggy with lots of mid 90s for highs and the daily chance of at least a few PM storms. The heat might try to break just a but toward the end of the week.

Tropics....

We still have our tropical wave, which is bringing unsettled weather to the Lesser Antilles today. However, upper level winds remain hostile, and development is not likely.

A little less humidity today...

Some slightly drier air is settling into the region from the north today, and that will really squelch the rain chances for the mountains and piedmont. For the piedmont, look for highs in the lower 90s with lots of sunshine, and you will likely be able to notice a drop in the humidity levels today compared to recent days. The best chance of seeing a storm today will be from right along the NC coast into portions of South Carolina.

Friday's forecast looks mainly dry with highs close to 90 for the NC piedmont with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

I will maintain the chance of a few storms Saturday with highs close to 90. Sunday looks a bit hotter with low to mid 90s for highs.

Some model disagreement comes into play next week in exactly where the center of an upper level ridge will set up. So, the confidence of timing out any increases in rain chances next week is pretty low at this point. Generally speaking, look for highs in the lower 90s and at least a limited chance of a few PM storms.

Numerous showers and storms today

Our airmass has gotten even soupier today. Combine that with the approach of a weak cold front, and we have a recipe for numerous showers and storms for our Wednesday. We have already seen some showers and storms in the Piedmont through the pre-dawn hours today, and showers and storms will continue to be a possibility through the day into this evening.

Some of the storms could again be strong to severe today. Again, damaging winds and lightning are the biggest concerns. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to near 90.

That cold front I mentioned is the leading edge of some slightly drier air, and it appears that drier air will work into much of the Piedmont by tomorrow. In turn, that will greatly diminish the chance of showers and storms. While the rain chance tomorrow through Sunday is not zero, we are probably looking at an isolated coverage at best. Highs will be back into the 90s Thursday through Sunday as well.

Not a whole lot will change as we head into next work week. Highs will remain in the 90s with lows close to 70. Isolated PM storms will remain possible.

Back at it...more heat and storms....

Had a good few days off over the past several days to step away from things for a bit and enjoy some down time. My family and I went down to Charleston, South Carolina and spent several days. Truly a beautiful city. Tons of sights to see, lots to do, and some great beaches. We really had a nice time.

Back in the saddle at the big 14 this morning, and our forecast today will be very similar to what we have seen the past few days. Hot and humid conditions with NC Piedmont highs in the low to mid 90s. Columbia, SC might very well hit 100 degrees for the third consecutive day.

Like we have seen over the past few days, we will likely have some scattered strong to severe storms fire later today. The storms will be prolific lightning producers, and again some damaging winds will be possible.

Tomorrow will likely feature a little greater coverage of showers and storms as a weakening cold front scoot just to the north of the region. Highs will be close to 90 in many Piedmont spots.

The seven day outlook is very summer-like with highs in the lower 90s, lows in the lower 70s, and at least some chance on a daily basis for some afternoon and evening storms.

Tropics...A little low pressure 1100 miles or so east of the Lesser Antilles has some chance of becoming a tropical depression...however, the upper level environment will become more hostile around the system tomorrow.

Some shower and storm chances today...

A warm front is lifting north of the region today, and we are now back into a muggier airmass. Highs today will warm into the mid to upper 80s in most Piedmont locations, and we will have a considerable amounts of clouds. We will also have the chance of a few showers and storms today into portions of tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A few storms could produce some damaging wind gusts.

Today will also be relatively breezy overall with southwest winds possibly gusting over 25mph or so at times.

Tomorrow, that cold front will push into northern South Carolina. This will leave most of North Carolina with a dry forecast, although the southern sections of the state could see a few showers or storms. The better chances tomorrow will be in South Carolina. It will be a fairly hot Thursday with highs close to 90.

The heat and humidity will build as we head into the upcoming weekend. Highs will approach the mid 90s at times over the weekend, and morning lows will only be in the low to mid 70s. There will be some chance of a few afternoon storms as well.

It appears another cold front will drop in next week bringing some relief from the heat and humidity by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Housekeeping note here...I am taking a little bit of time off, and I will be out of the weather office for the next several days. The next full discussion and video will likely not be posted until early Tuesday morning. However, I might occasionally throw something up on my twitter feed @eastwx , but overall, I will use these days to unplug from technology a bit and recharge the batteries.

Everyone have a great weekend!

One more day with low humidity...

If you don't like the warmth and the mugginess, enjoy today. Our Tuesday will indeed be delightful with lots of sun and highs in the low to mid 80s. Humidity values will remain on the low side again today.

However, changes are coming. A warm front will begin to lift through tonight, and that warm front will usher us back into a muggier and warmer regime once again. Highs tomorrow will warm into the upper 80s to near 90, and a few afternoon storms will be possible. Tomorrow will actually be quite breezy as well.

Look for highs to remain at least in the lower 90s for much of the period from Thursday into early next week. In fact, it looks extremely muggy again by the weekend, and many highs could wind up into the mid 90s to boot. A few storms will be possible over the weekend, but the bigger story will likely be the heat.

A nice break from the heat and humidity...

If you are tired of the early-season heat and humidity, take heart....a break has arrived! Today and tomorrow will be delightful days with lots of sunshine, highs in the low to at most mid 80s, and much, much lower humidity levels. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 60s for most....even some upper 50s can't be ruled out in the traditionally cooler spots.

Our next storm system will begin to approach Wednesday, and along with it will come the chance of some scattered storms again. Another cold front will then slowly push south of the area Thursday, and most of the region should return to dry conditions Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to some lower 90s.

Heat slowly builds....

Very warm conditions will be with us today through the weekend. Highs today around the Piedmont will top out in the upper 80s to around 90, then look for low to mid 90s tomorrow and Sunday. Not only will be be fairly hot, it is going to remain quite humid, so this will have the look and feel of a mid-Summer weekend.

If you are heading out of town this weekend, first of all, remember you can check out the mountain and coastal pages of my site on the left. Lots of good information there. For the coast, a pretty good beach weekend is on tap. Highs will be well up into the 80s, and locations outside of the Outer Banks could even touch 90 either weekend day. A few PM storms will be possible through the weekend, but they will be hit and miss.

Up in the mountains, look for some scattered afternoon storms with highs in the 80s.

It still appears we will get a break from this weekend's heat and humidity as we roll into Monday and Tuesday. Highs will back down toward the mid 80s, and the humidity levels will be noticeably lower.

Some shower and storm chances look to return for the second half of the work week.

More of the same...

Wash, rinse, and repeat....the same general forecast ideas are holding steady around the region. We remain in a very warm and humid pattern, and highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to near 90 in many spots. Both today and tomorrow we will again see scattered showers and storms fire during the afternoon hours, and a couple of storms could be strong to severe.

Any storm is fair game to produce locally heavy rain and frequent lightning. Like we have seen over the past few days, some localized flash flooding issues could arise.

Over the weekend, we will ratchet the heat up a few ticks....lower 90s Saturday and some mid 90s appearing Sunday. The overall number of showers and storms will likely decrease a bit over the weekend, but the storms that do form could pack a punch.

It still looks like we might get a bit of a break from the heat and humidity Monday and Tuesday with some 80s for highs and considerably lower levels of humidity.

Summer-like pattern...

We have settled into a summer-like pattern around our region with warm and humid conditions and daily chances of scattered showers and storms....especially during the afternoon and evening hours. This general pattern will persist right through the weekend as well.

Highs today will be in the mid 80s, then look for upper 80s tomorrow with highs approaching 90 Friday through the weekend.
Another feature of our current pattern is the potential for big complexes of storms, called MCS's, to develop over the Midwest and drop southeastward in our direction. This will be a possibility, especially Friday and the weekend. As I am typing this morning, there is a big MCS impacting Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, and we have to be wary of one of those dropping in bring a windy band of storms racing through.

Here is a radar snapshot of this morning's activity in the Midwest....

It appears there is at least some chance of slightly cooler, drier air briefly settling in here early next work week.

Some showers and storms again today...

Memorial Day wound up being wet and storm across much of the Piedmont. Quite a few spots wound up with over an inch of rain, and some localized spots say significantly more than that.

Overnight last night, an area of rain and storms developed in South Carolina and lifted right through the Charlotte metro and into southern Davidson, Randolph, and Montgomery counties over toward the RDU region. Some of the rain was quite heavy, and some localized flooding issues developed.

Today, look for scattered showers and storms with highs in the low to mid 80s. Again, some locally heavy rain is possible.

We are settling into a summer-like pattern with warm and humid conditions and a daily chance of mainly afternoon storms. Highs will be getting warmer...upper 80s to even some lower 90s to end the work week and into the upcoming weekend.

Tropical Season Here...

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today. There are no immediate signs of tropical development around the Atlantic Basin.

As the season unfolds, I will have plenty of tropical information here for you on my site. I will also cut special tropical videos as systems warrant. Also, be sure to check out the 'Tropical Weather' section of the page. I will be adding to that section as we go ahead in time....