Sunday morning thoughts....

Some quick thoughts before heading out to church this morning. All in all, it seems any eastward/southward trending has come to an end with the track of the system, and if anything, a few models tried to shift things back west and north just a bit over the past couple of runs.

At this point, I still wouldn't pay a lot of attention to the amount of precip being printed out by the models. That will continue to be adjusted as the event draws nearer.

At this point, it appears odds are highest for the most significant accumulating snow along and east of I-85, and it could wind up that the heaviest snow falls close to I-95 or so in eastern NC. I am not ready to mention amounts yet....it is just too uncertain. However, see below....

Now, the main factors impacting the forecast remain the same. It is all about the speed and interaction of the two pieces of energy labeled on the water vapor imagery above. The sooner they phase, the more north and west the track winds up being.

I still have the sneaking suspicion that we will see the track adjusted somewhat more to the west and north. That has been the seasonal trend for sure, and at times, it has not been seen by modeling until less than 24 hours before the event, as with the last widespread snow event. But just because it as happened with previous storms does not mean it will happen this time. So, you can't just take stuff like that to the bank.

However, if we do see that northwest trend develop, then it could wind up being the I-85 corridor or even points north and west that see the most snow.

It is an extremely fine line, and one I will continue to work on figuring out.

By the way, accumulating snow could begin with this all the way back into at least eastern Alabama and maybe farther west. 

There you have it....will be watching the trends today and see how things play out. In the meantime, a pretty nice day today. Enjoy!