3:15pm....

For the Upstate of South Carolina....My buddy Andy Wood putting out some 4-6" ideas on the Fox Carolina Blog this afternoon.

Andy is a skilled and passionate meteorologist....see his thoughts here....

Fox Carolina Weather Blog

Some of the modeling trends have been encouraging for I-85 snow fans today; others have not (European primarily). Overall, I still think things look pretty good to get some snow on the ground in a lot of places with this.

I will probably put up a post this evening, and then of course a new video and full post with a preliminary accumulation map bright and early in the morning.

As for now, time to watch the big hockey game. USA!

Sunday morning thoughts....

Some quick thoughts before heading out to church this morning. All in all, it seems any eastward/southward trending has come to an end with the track of the system, and if anything, a few models tried to shift things back west and north just a bit over the past couple of runs.

At this point, I still wouldn't pay a lot of attention to the amount of precip being printed out by the models. That will continue to be adjusted as the event draws nearer.

At this point, it appears odds are highest for the most significant accumulating snow along and east of I-85, and it could wind up that the heaviest snow falls close to I-95 or so in eastern NC. I am not ready to mention amounts yet....it is just too uncertain. However, see below....

Now, the main factors impacting the forecast remain the same. It is all about the speed and interaction of the two pieces of energy labeled on the water vapor imagery above. The sooner they phase, the more north and west the track winds up being.

I still have the sneaking suspicion that we will see the track adjusted somewhat more to the west and north. That has been the seasonal trend for sure, and at times, it has not been seen by modeling until less than 24 hours before the event, as with the last widespread snow event. But just because it as happened with previous storms does not mean it will happen this time. So, you can't just take stuff like that to the bank.

However, if we do see that northwest trend develop, then it could wind up being the I-85 corridor or even points north and west that see the most snow.

It is an extremely fine line, and one I will continue to work on figuring out.

By the way, accumulating snow could begin with this all the way back into at least eastern Alabama and maybe farther west. 

There you have it....will be watching the trends today and see how things play out. In the meantime, a pretty nice day today. Enjoy!

Saturday morning quick thoughts....

This is the point I feel the need to say this. I have not said a huge snow storm is going to happen for Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Atlanta, or any other one place. It is too early for any confidence that any one spot will really get nailed.

What I have said, and I will still say, is that this system has high potential to bring somebody across the region, and possibly a good number of somebodies, a good snow event.

Uncertainties run rampant this morning. The biggest questions revolve around the timing and interaction of a couple of pieces of upper level energy....one in the southern branch, another one diving in from the Midwest. How quickly each of these pieces of energy move, and how quickly they begin to phase with one another, will determine how this event plays out.

The earlier they phase, the farther north and west the system tracks. The later they phase, the farther east and south.

Here is our southern branch system as I type. Give it another 18-24 hours, and it will be in an area with better data sampling to go into the models.



For the western Carolina and north Georgia, generally speaking, you want to see a quicker phase. But not too much....you don't want warm air to flood in. For the eastern Carolinas, a later phase would give you some snow, but an earlier phase and stronger system would probably give you snow to rain and then some nice snow on the back end.

One other thing to watch....there has been some trend on the modeling of making the system not as strong overall. Again, that all has to do with the timing and phasing of the branches.

There you have it. So, snow fans, now is not really the time to let your emotions ebb and flow based on each model run. Give it another day or two, let's let this get more squarely in the range of the shorter range models, and let's see where we stand.

Robert Elvington's Post

Robert is an intern of mine. He is a recent graduate from the meteorology program at NC State. Here is a post from him this morning......

Last day of high winds for the area thanks to the low sitting off the coast of New York. As the low continues to weaken and move West/Northwest expect the winds to settle back to normal. The weekend still continues to look quiet, with below average temperatures.

The next weather maker looks to impact our region and the Southeast around mid to late day Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon. The current wavy upper atmosphere continues to roll out new systems every 3 to 4 days. Most models are in quite good agreement for this far out showing this system dropping high amounts of liquid over our area. Liquid equivalent of around 2.00 inches as you move closer to the triangle. The question whether it will be snow or rain is still playing out. However, Right now it looks to starts as rain, cooling the atmosphere to near freezing, allowing for a long sustained period of heavy snow for most if not all of the viewing area. Some models are even showing prolonged banding to set up over central NC where accumulations amounts could quickly climb higher.

Look for some hints on amount totals as we get closer to the event Sunday into Monday.

But as always we are 4 days out so it is still too early to make or change plans based on the forecast. Check back with Weather on the Ones or blog posts as we will update forecasts based on all the latest data and model runs.

Robert Elvington

robert.elvington@gmail.com

Windy again today...potential winter storm next week...

We will have another windy day around the region today with a lot of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will gust over 30 or 35mph at times today, so it will be a cold, blustery day.

The weekend weather looks pretty quiet with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and a decent amount of sunshine.

All eyes are really focused on our system Tuesday into Wednesday next week. After being as lost as a duck in a hail storm yesterday, the GFS has caught onto the idea the foreign modeling has had on this system. Frankly, the model agreement is about as good as you could ask for several days out on this....which makes me nervous.....just waiting for something to go awry.

All in all, my position here is unchanged from the past few days. I still think the potential is high for a big snow event for parts of the Southeast. Please see the video for lots of details. Right now, I think some snow is possible in north and central Mississippi and Alabama, but the potential for heavier snow totals really begins to increase as you head from northern Georgia and especially into the Carolinas.....especially the western and central Carolinas....maybe even coastal parts of North Carolina.

This is a fluid situation with lots of moving parts.....and small scale changes in features can have big implications to the forecast. Lots could change....

Stay tuned....

Cold and breezy today....watching next week....

Some folks saw some snow showers overnight last night, and a few places around the region will continue to see a few flakes this morning. However, the big story today (outside of the mountains where snow will continue) is cold and breezy conditions. Highs today will struggle to reach the lower 40s, and when you factor in the wind, we will see wind chill values sub-freezing much of the day.

Lows drop into the 20s tonight, and highs will be in the mid to upper 40s tomorrow with breeziness continuing.

This weekend will be cool and dry, but I continue to be very interested in a potential system next week.

See the video for lots of details on this. As of now, my thinking is unchanged....somebody across the Southeast will likely see a good snow event out of this. I think the GFS is far too suppressed with this system, and I am definitely in the camp of the foreign models in their handling of this system right now. The details of where and how much are questions I am not ready to answer, but the system certainly bears watching. Again, please see the video today for lots of stuff on this system, including why the GFS is doing what it is doing....

Some snow possible today...bigger system on the horizon....

We will see precip spread into the region this morning. Initially, most of the precip will be rain, but with time, many Piedmont spots will see some snow. This is still a tricky forecast due to the overall light nature of the precip and the borderline nature of near surface temps.

For the Triad area, a dusting to at very most 1-2" look possible on grassy and elevated surfaces. Roads should remain wet with temps above freezing today.

The Charlotte and Raleigh areas are even tougher....I still think anyone in that area is fair game for some minor accumulations on the grass, but some spots could very well see rain for most of the event.

Tomorrow will be cold and breezy with temps struggling to make it to the lower 40s and northwest winds gusting over 30mph at times.

We should stay dry and cool this weekend.

Our next system will then approach by around Tuesday. All of the players are on the field for the potential for a significant winter storm somewhere across the Southeast....and probably a lot of somewheres. Will it be here? Tough to say with certainty yet, but it bears watching.....

Winter Weather Advisories hoisted.....

The NWS has hoisted Winter Weather Advisories for a number of Piedmont counties, including the Charlotte metro , the Triad, and RDU. No changes from me from the ideas outlined earlier....dusting to maybe 2" on grassy and elevated surfaces. Most roads should just wind up wet tomorrow.

Check out all of the new pages here on the site on the left. TONS of information to peruse, and I will be tweaking and adding more. I just wanted to get the initial setup going for you guys today. Lots and lots of model days, current information, and forecast products for you to pour over.

Thanks for all of the kind words....continue to feel free to leave any comments of suggestions.

Snow possibilities ahead.....

We will have a quiet and relatively mild day today. After a foggy start, low clouds will be tough to erode today, but some peeks of sun are possible with highs in the mid to upper 50s....maybe lower 60s in a few spots.

Snow is falling in Texas today, and that system will arrive here tomorrow. I expect wet snow to spread in tomorrow morning and taper off later tomorrow afternoon. Some rain could be involved initially, but for the I-85 corridor and points north and west, the precip type looks like mainly wet snow.

I do think some accumulations of snow are possible. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing for the entirety of the event, so I expect the roads to be primarily wet. But anyone in the Triad and Charlotte regions, even over toward RDU, is fair game to pick up some slushy snow accumulations on the grassy areas and elevated surfaces. The heaviest snow accumulations will likely be in the 1-2" category.

Below is my preliminary accumulation map....I reserve the right to amend that tomorrow morning.

Thursday will be cold and windy, and overall, we will be back into a colder pattern beginning tomorrow. The next system will approach by Saturday morning. For the time being, it looks like that will mainly stay to our south, but it is very close.  And for quite a while, the models have been in remarkable agreement that a powerful system will imact the southeast early next week. Details are obviously still up in the air, but that one bears watching for more wintry potential.

Monday Morning.....

Rain pressing through this morning.....will be in and out pretty quickly. I actually just saw a flash of lightning out of the window!

**I am doing some major renovations on the blog here, so you might see some strange things happening over the next couple of days.**

Thanks for stopping by. Full post and video up bright and early in the morning!

Early Sunday morning....

Quick hits here this morning....enjoy another terrific day today. Highs will warm into the 60s for most.

Still looks like a quick hit of some rain tomorrow. It does not look very heavy.

Keeping an eye on Wednesday. After the GFS indicated some wintry chances Wednesday on several runs late last week, it has now suppressed the thing way south. Canadian is way south too. Euro is indicating the chance of a quick shot of precip Wednesday. We will see....

It is going to get cold later this week. We will get plunged back into well below normal temps by the second half of the week.

Watching the March 1-3 time frame for the possibility of a significant system.

Enjoy your Sunday. I will not be in the weather office tomorrow.....back at it Tuesday morning!

Warming trend continues....

First off, a couple of nuggets four the Triad.....first of all, no winter weather this weekend. After for consecutive weekends of some type of wintry precip, a mild and quiet one this time around.

Secondly, if we hit 50 degrees today, it will be the first time since January 28 that PTI has recorded a temp of 50 degrees or higher.

The warming trend will continue today with highs in the low to mid 50s around the region. Look for mid to upper 50s tomorrow, with some lower 60s Sunday. We will see a sunny sky today, and then partly sunny skies over the weekend.

Our next shot at rain will arrive Monday. No wintry precip with that one....the cold air will be well north of us.

Don't get used to the milder weather....we will plunge back into a colder pattern as next week unfolds, and I expect well below average temps by the second half of next week.

The models are all over the place with potential storm systems next week, and I have zero confidence in any one solution from any one model. Watch and wait mode on that.....

Kevin's Post......

Zonal flow will dominate the rest of the work week and right through our weekend as the trough moves out.This will bring our area much milder or more seasonable temperatures that we have seen in awhile. Today you can expect alot of sunshine with highs in the mid 40's and low's in the upper 20's. For the weekend, we will see mid 50's for highs and some places may even top out at 60. Monday will bring rain as a low pushes through with highs in the mid 40's. After Monday, I believe we will see nice days for Tuesday, Wednesday , and Thursday with highs in the mid 40's. Fridays forecast looks to be interesting with the GFS tossing around some snow chances but we will have to see how other models handle this as it approaches. Right now the models have the low suppressed to the south with a upper-level low over the NE. Things will become clearer by next week but until then get out this weekend and enjoy the milder weather because it wont last long as a trough will set back up over the SE.

Kevin Smith
kbsmith@uncc.edu

Gradually getting milder....

Highs today will be roughly 5 degrees milder than yesterday in most spots...mainly mid to upper 40s. Look for a lot of sunshine as well.

We will keep the gradual warming trend going with some lower 50s tomorrow and mid to upper 50s this weekend...even some lower 60s in some spots.

Our next system will roll in Monday and bring us a chance of rain. That will be first in a new series of storm system to impact the southeastern US as we again enter an active storm track. We will also head back into a colder pattern next week.

I expect the cold and storm pattern to persist into March....

A chance to catch our breath this week....

We will get a respite from the active storm track for the remainder of this work week as conditions will be chilly and dry. Today will feature highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and it will be a bit breezy as well. Look for low to mid 40s tomorrow, mid to upper 40s Thursday, and upper 40s to lower 50s Friday.

Still some uncertainty for the weekend, but I have left things dry as of this morning's package. It looks like the next significant chance of precip will come around Monday. The models are all over the place with the track of that low pressure though.

After a respite from the active storm track this week, the southern branch looks to come to life again next week and beyond, so enjoy the breather this week!

Housekeeping note here...I will not be in the weather office tomorrow morning, so there will be no new video or blog post Wednesday morning. Back to a regular schedule Thursday morning.

System swinging through this morning....

A storm system is quickly swinging through the region this morning, and I will continue with the idea of a rain and snow mix for many across our region this morning. The mix will likely be weighted more toward the snow side of things up in the foothills and mountains, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for those areas. For the Piedmont, while some flakes could be seen, this is not a good setup for accumulating snow.

Most of the precip should be out of the Triad and Charlotte zones by soon after lunch, and then we will see a chilly and quiet work week unfold. Lows will be well down into the 20s with highs in the lower 40s tomorrow and Wednesday, then warming into the mid to upper 40s Thursday and Friday.

The pattern is a bit convoluted this weekend into early next week, and we might wind up with some precip chances somewhere in there. But for this morning's forecast package, I have just brought in some clouds, and we will hone in on any precip chances as the week unfolds.

The overall cold and stormy pattern looks to persist through the end of the month and into March....

Saturday morning....

Our snow event has ended, and altogether, the system behaved as expected. The Triad itself got between 1" and 2" in most instances, with heavier amounts in southern sections. Troy reported 5." Amounts were lightest in the Virginia border counties.

Much of the Charlotte region received between 2-3" with heavier amounts occurring when you got further east and south.

Columbia, SC reported 7," and numerous spots up and down the Carolina coast received 3"-5"....very impressive.

Today, sunshine will help out with the road conditions, but it will be cold and breezy with highs in the upper 30s to around 40.

A frigid night is on tap tonight with lows in the lower 20s...maybe even some upper teens in spots. Any liquid remaining on the roads will quickly re-freeze, so watch out for slick spots on roads later tonight and tomorrow morning.

Our next system will roll in by Monday morning. At this point, that system looks like a rain and snow mixture....we will see.

3:15pm update...

All looks to be going along pretty well related to my thinking this morning. I have been debating upping my 1-3" area up to 2-4". I could go either way, and really, since I was kinda leaning toward a lot of 2-3" amounts anyway, either range would be OK.

So, since I don't like changing the forecast unless I have a compelling reason to do so, I will leave it at 1-3"....just know, that a lot of areas will likely wind up in the upper end of that range, and certainly some localized 4" or 5" amounts are possible if some nice snow banding sets up.

I also want to go ahead and include the Triad itself in the 1-3" area.

So, I will let the accumulation map from earlier ride on....just be aware that a lot of folks could be on the upper end of the ranges indicated, and the Triad can consider itself in the 1-3" area as well.

Some snow on the way....

Take a look at this morning's video....a picture is worth a thousand words....

Snow will spread into the region late this afternoon and evening after clouds continue to thicken today. None of the snow in North Carolina will be overly heavy, but a lot of folks will likely see a period of light to moderate snow.

For the Charlotte area, snow should arrive later this afternoon and extend through much of this evening. For the Triad, a some flurries are possible later this afternoon with any accumulating snow likely occurring this evening.

The heaviest amounts of snow will occur from parts of Georgia into South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina. However, I do think a lot of folks along the I-85 corridor will pick up some accumulating snow...just keep in mind the farther south and east you are, the more snow you will likely see.

At the bottom of the post is the accumulation map I am going with on-air this morning. For the Charlotte region, I am going with a general 1-3" snow, but amounts could be higher once you head toward Rockingham.

For the Triad, accumulation look very light from I-40 and points north, but a dusting to an inch is possible. South of I-40, I have included in the 1-3" category.

For Raleigh, much the same as Charlotte....1-3" with higher amounts to the south.

Note the Outer Banks will likely see some snow accumulation, and some very nice accumulations look possible from around Wilmington down through the SC coast.

The weekend will be chilly and dry. Our next system arrives Monday and will likely involve some snow for parts of the region.

Northward, ho!

The American models have consistently shifted the precip fields northward over the past 4-5 runs...something you had to imagine was a strong possibility based on the climatology this season thus far.

By the way, the DFW metroplex is really piling up the snow....they could top 10" tonight.

For this evening, I will stick with the idea I have out there of some minor accumulation being possible roughly from I-85 and points south and east in North Carolina. A nice snow event is on the way for much of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. North Carolina is tougher...but I do think some points could wind up with some accumulations.

I will cut a new video in the morning and have a full blog post for you...I will also put out any necessary accumulation maps tomorrow morning.

Have a great night!

Deep South Snow....

See the video for lots of details on our upcoming weather....

A snow event is on the way for the Deep South, and accumulating snow is likely from parts of Texas across much of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and into South Carolina. This is not a huge snow storm, but it is enough for accumulations in large portions of those states, and accumulating snow is always a big deal in the Deep South. The heavies amounts of snow will likely occur roughly from near I-20 to a bit north of I-10. The system could even end as some flakes in places like New Orleans and Biloxi.

For our area, today will be quiet and not nearly as windy as yesterday. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s with a good bit of sun.

Clouds will increase tomorrow as the next system approaches from the southwest. Snow will likely spread into Georgia and South Carolina by tomorrow afternoon, and accumulations are likely for places like Atlanta, Macon, and Columbia. Light snows could very well wind up pushing as far north as GSP, Charlotte, the southern Triad viewing area over to near Raleigh. However, that will be the northern fringes of the snow shield, and accumulations will be hard to come by. By the way, Wilmington and the Sandhills could get some light snow accumulations with this.

Behind the system, Saturday and Sunday will be chilly and quiet.

Another potent system dives in for Monday. This is a powerful 'clipper' type system. It is tough to get accumulating snows east of the mountains with clippers, but this one will be very strong, and if it can track far enough south, some snow is possible Monday across much of the region.

Batten down the hatches.....

Wind is the weather word today. We will see sustained winds anywhere from 15-35mph with gusts in excess of 50mph for much of the day. This will be enough to topple some trees and power poles. Also, travel will be tricky at times not only for high profile vehicles, but for cars as well. Keep in mind, we are talking gusts here up to severe thunderstorm criteria....this is not your average windy day.

It will also be chilly with highs struggling toward the upper side of the 30s today...wind chill values in the 20s at best.

Look for sunshine today and tomorrow with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 40s.

The next southern stream system approaches Friday. I still think this will wind up being a decent snow event for places like Shreveport, Jackson, Birmingham, Atlanta, and Columbia. It gets trickier farther north into North Carolina. See the video for some details here.

I think there is a chance the light snow could extend up into the Charlotte region by Friday night. But again, the northward extent of the precip is the biggest question here.

A strong 'clipper' system will dive in by Sunday night and Monday morning...that one could produce a few snow flakes.

Below average temps look to remain in place for much of the rest of the month.

System pulling through today....very windy tomorrow....

Our next system is pulling through the region today. This morning, a little light wintry precip is possible north of I-40 and northwest of I-85, but I don't foresee any big problems with that. The reason is the heavier precip will hold off until this afternoon, and by that time, the atmosphere will support mostly rain outside of the mountains.

So, look for rain at times this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 30s for the Triad and around 40 for Charlotte.

Some moisture will linger tonight, and as temps drop overnight, that could lead to some areas of freezing drizzle that might slicken things up for the morning commute tomorrow.

The big weather story tomorrow will be wind. All the ingredients are there for a very windy day with winds out of the west and northwest gusting in excess of 40 or 45mph at times. Winds will be even higher in the mountains, and snow will fall in the High Country.

The next system will roll through the South Friday and Friday night. This looks like a suppressed system with the bulk of the precip likely staying south of North Carolina. However, that system does stand a chance of bringing snow to places like Jackson, Mississippi over through Birmingham and Montgomery to Atlanta and Columbia.

Things look fairly cold and dry through the weekend into next week. Some weak system could swing through at times, but the more significant southern branch systems will likely stay to our south for a while through the mid-month period.

I don't see an end in sight to the overall colder pattern over the eastern U.S.

Next system rolls in by tomorrow morning...

Our active storm track continues, and our next system is causing snow this morning in parts of Arkansas and Tennessee. Ahead of the system, I expect a lot of clouds with highs in the low to mid 40s.

The precipitation could arrive as soon as the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, and if it does, it could initially be a little snow or sleet, especially north of I-40. However, the temps aloft warm quickly, and by daybreak or soon after tomorrow, the precip would be either rain or freezing rain.

For the Charlotte region, this looks like rain with temps above freezing, although in the 30s for much of the event.

For the Triad and point north and west, a period of freezing rain looks possible tomorrow morning before most spots should warm above freezing. I don't anticipate big problems with this, but we will watch it.

Wednesday looks sunny but very windy as a cold airmass blows in here. In fact, highs will likely struggle to make it into the lower 40s for much of the next week with lots of 20s for lows.

Our next potential system is Friday and Friday night. This one looks to bring parts of the Deep South some snow. However, most modeling keeps the system suppressed to the south of North Carolina. This will undoubtedly be a pretty far south-tracking system, but I do think there is some wiggle room for some slight shifting north. So, I am not ready to write this one off for NC just yet.

West Wing Snow...

Live D.C. Stream....

Live streaming video by Ustream

Above is a live stream from Washington, D.C. as they crawl out from an historic snow storm....

Upped the Triad snow totals a bit....

Wintry weather today for some....flooding for others....

Lots of on-air work this morning.....so this will be brief.

Snow falling the Triad along and north of I-85 then down to near Hickory and points north....accumulations occurring.

Freezing rain will be an issue later this morning. The snow will end by later this morning, and at that point, it will either be freezing rain or rain, depending on your temp. Generally, the same areas seeing snow this morning are the areas with freezing rain potential as well.

See the accumulation maps below.

Freezing drizzle or light freezing rain will be possible in some spots tonight, then a little light snow is possible tomorrow morning, mainly north of I-40.

Lots of rain will pile up today in the spots not seeing wintry precip, and flooding could be a problem as the day unfolds....