Jumat, 29 Oktober 2010

Chillier air has arrived

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In the post below this one is my winter forecast and video.



A much cooler airmass has arrived across our region. Despite a sunny sky, highs today will warm into the low to at most mid 60s.

Many locations will have their coldest night thus far this season tonight. Under a clear sky, temps will drop off into the 30s by Saturday morning, and in many Piedmont locations, temps will likely be cold enough for frost. Some of the traditionally colder spots might even dip into the lower 30s.

A delightful October weekend is on tap. Look for sunshine with 60s for highs tomorrow and lower 70s for Halloween. No problems either evening for the trick-or-treaters.

Next week....

Next week will be a cool week overall. At some point, likely Tuesday through Thursday, our next system will roll in. Lots of uncertainty with the details of that one, but I will mention some shower chances those days, and we might wind up with a few days with highs in the 50s.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Shary will scrape near Bermuda today as a minumal tropical storm....then head out to sea.

There is a sizable tropical wave nearing the eastern Caribbean. We will watch that one for development.

Kamis, 28 Oktober 2010

2010-2011 Winter Forecast

**Issued October 28, 2010**



Above is the video to accompany the winter forecast. Please see it for all of the graphical information. I picture is worth a thousand words.

For those of you that are new to my winter outlooks, my goal each year is to put out my forecast prior to Halloween. The temperature and precip forecasts relative to average are based on December, January, and February, and any snowfall ideas are first flake to last flake, whatever month they occur in.

Last year's winter forecast worked out very, very nicely. I still have all of those maps saved, and the video is still on my youtube channel for those interested. Overall, it went about as well as a seasonal forecast can go.

This time around, my confidence is somewhat lower. One of the dominant weather players for this winter is a strong La Nina. The La Nina is a strong one, and that means there is a relatively small sample size of analog years with similar La Nina values. Due to the low number of analog years, this can sometimes lead you down the wrong path.

Another key factor is how the Atlantic behaves. For much of the year, the NAO and the AO have been on the negative side of things, or at most neutral. One recent exception is a positive spike in those values in early October. How these values unfold will play a major role this winter.

At this point, I am going with the idea that a neutral to negative NAO/AO combination will be with us, at least through the first half of winter.

So, with all of that said, here we go...

The analog years I have gone with are the winters of 55/56, 73/74, 75/76, 88/89, 98/99, 99/00. I have placed more weight in the analogs from the 50s and 70s....reason being a much closer match with the current solar cycle than the other years mentioned as well as a better overall match with the cycle of the PDO, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

So, my overall forecast for the winter.


Please see the maps at the bottom for the individual month breakdowns of the analog years for temps and precip.

For the Carolinas
:
Temperatures: Above average Precipitation: Average to a bit below

That is very vague, so let's get a little more specific. I anticipate, relative to averages, December to be our coldest winter month. For the Southeast, I will go with average December temps. From there, January and February are look above average for the Southeast's temps.

For precip, each of the months look to be fairly close to average. The closer you get to the Gulf coast, the drier it looks overall.

Snowfall forecasts are always tricky. It only takes one quite healthy snow event to reach averages around much of our non-mountain areas. I do think we will have our chances this winter, however, unlike last winter where we had one potential event right after another, they will be fewer in number. If we can cash in on one or two of these potential events, then the region will do OK for snow. If not, then not so much.

I think December could be our best opportunity for winter events, with the potential dwindling a bit as the winter unfolds. However, even in a sea of above average temperatures, it only takes one well-placed upper level low to dump snow. So, back away from the ledge, snow fans. There is always hope.

So again, to recap, the coldest winter temperatures overall look to be during the first half of winter with above average temps taking over as we get deeper into winter. However, the mid-Atlantic to the Tennessee Valley could wind up being a battle ground for airmasses, so there will be some temps swings. And with colder air sitting fairly close by, that could lend itself to some ice or wintry mix events.

Again, please see the video...I get into lots of graphics with more detailed information in there.


December
Temps:

Precip:


January
Temps:

Precip:


February
Temps:

Precip:

Storm system has exited....



After a couple of days of unsettled weather featuring rain, storms, severe weather, flooding, and the kitchen sink....much quieter weather is arriving as our storm system continues to pull away.

Today will be dry with a drier airmass pushing in from the northwest. However, it will still be fairly warm this afternoon with lots of Piedmont locations making it up into the lower 80s.

Chillier air will begin settling in tonight with lows in the 40s under a clear sky. You will definitely notice the difference tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 60s in spite of a sunny sky.

Lows Saturday morning will be well down into the 30s, and I still think some Piedmont spots will see a frost.

Weekend....

A delightful Halloween weekend is on tap. Sunshine will abound both days with highs Saturday in the 60s and highs Sunday toward the lower 70s. Whether the kids are trick-or-treating Saturday or Sunday evening, the weather will be great both days with evening temps falling into the 50s.

Next week....

Another storm system will impact our region Tuesday and Wednesday next week. However, instead of storms and severe weather, this system looks to bring us some pretty chilly rain. Temps Wednesday could very well be in the 50s all day.

Winter Forecast....

I am releasing my winter forecast today. I will have it and its accompanying video posted later this morning.

Here is some viewer video of a tornado in Person county yesterday...

Rabu, 27 Oktober 2010

Tornado Watch until 9pm

Storms are increasing in intensity in the Upstate into portions of the Piedmont. Looks like parameters are again in place for storms to rotate, and damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main potential. Looks like the actions will shift to near I-85 this time around...




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF ANDERSON SOUTH
CAROLINA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DANVILLE VIRGINIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 733...WW 734...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A 40 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH
50-55 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD...IS RESULTING IN A SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...MEAD

Scattered showers and storms...

Today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....



Waves of showers and storms rolled through the areas north and west of I-85 from yesterday evening into early this morning. Quite a few tornado warnings were required, and some damage and flooding occurred in spots.

Those showers and storms were out ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. The front will likely stay just to our west until later tonight. So, our Wednesday forecast will continue to be highlighted by the chance of scattered showers and storms. Those chances will continue for at least a portion of tonight as well.

Some storms could again be locally strong to severe. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes are the main threats.

Much drier air will move in tomorrow as the front pushes east of us. Friday and Saturday will be much chillier with some 60s for highs and a sunny sky. Lows Saturday morning will be well down into the 30s....some Piedmont spots might see a frost.

For Halloween, the weather will be terrific with sunshine and lower 70s for highs. No problems for the trick-or-treaters at all.

Selasa, 26 Oktober 2010

Tornado Watch until 3am


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN MARYLAND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM
UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSON
SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 725...WW 726...WW
727
...WW 728...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN A LOOSE BAND
FROM SC NEWD INTO WRN NC AND WRN VA THIS EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER
N AND LATER...A BAND OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WHICH
WEAKENED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS VA/MD. HERE...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES TONIGHT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON

Severe update....


**radar as of 4:30pm.**

The potential for severe weather will ramp up as we head through tonight and tomorrow. At 4:30pm, instability had already increased enough to promote shower and storm development in portion of the region....we are just waiting forcing to spread in from the west.

I expect the mountains and foothills to see showers and storms fire tonight, and those storms could produce damaging winds or tornadoes.

As the night wears on, the zone of showers and storms will gradually work east. The atmosphere will get more stable with time tonight, however, I still expect the atmosphere to be able to support locally strong to severe storms as the activity spreads into the Piedmont. Lows will be very mild....upper 60s at the coolest.

The chance of scattered storms will continue through tomorrow as a cold front gradually works through.

You need to have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings, should they be required tonight or tomorrow. We will keep you up to date with live weather information as needed on News 14 Carolina, but we cannot reach through the TV to wake you up.

Unsettled conditions continue...



A powerhouse storm system is rapidly deepening in the Midwest today, and that will drive a cold front our way. The barometric pressure on that Midwest low will bottom out all of the way down to below 960mb.....as low as a strong hurricane. Up in Indiana and Ohio, a 'high risk' of severe weather is in place this morning, and the 'slight risk' area extends all of the way from southern Mississippi through the Tennessee Valley, western Carolinas into New York.

For our area, we saw a batch of rain with embedded lightning rapidly move through this morning. For the rest of the day, while a few isolated showers or storms could develop, the day looks largely dry, mild, and breezy. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

A squall line out ahead of the cold front in the Midwest will race southeastward and largely hold together as it moves into our area. At this point, it looks like that line of showers and storms could roll into the Piedmont after midnight tonight, and then scattered showers and storms will remain a possibility Wednesday. Some storms could be severe, and we will watch the potential closely.

The system will exit the region by Thursday, and significantly cooler air will arrive for Friday and the Halloween weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s, and I still think some frost is possible in some spots Saturday morning.

The weather still looks good for the trick-or-treaters this weekend.

Senin, 25 Oktober 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Watch


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 825 AM UNTIL 100
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF DUBLIN VIRGINIA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 711...WW 712...WW 713...

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM...INTO MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL
COOLING AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF A
STRONG VORT MAX CROSSING THE TN VALLEY REGION...EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD -- POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26040.

Showers and some storms today...



Sunday night was an active weather night across Mississippi and Alabama with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings and a few tornado warnings issued.

The disturbance that caused all of that active weather is moving into our region today, weakening as it does so. We will have the chance of showers and embedded storms today, and a few storms could produce some damaging wind gusts and even a brief tornado. We will watch it closely.

We will be in a warm and unsettled pattern until a potent cold front ushers in chilly air for Friday and the Halloween weekend. Tomorrow we will be between storm systems, so the rain chance, while not zero, is relatively low. Shower and storm chances will increase as that front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday.

Highs around the region will surge into the 80s through the mid-week period. Lows will remain in the 60s.

Behind the front, look for some 60s for highs Friday and Saturday and lows Saturday morning well down into the 30s. Some frost looks like it might be possible Saturday morning in some places.

For Halloween, great weather. Lower 70s for highs with evening temps slipping through the 60s and into the 50s.

Tropics...

Hurricane Richard made landfall in Belize last night and is now weakening in Central America.

Jumat, 22 Oktober 2010

Delightful weather...



We will once again get to enjoy some terrific weekend weather. Night will be chilly, but afternoons will be very, very nice.

Today will be sunny with highs about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday's highs. Many Piedmont highs will be shy of 70 with abundant sunshine.

A chilly night is ahead tonight. We will have a clear sky, high pressure will essentially be sitting directly overhead, and winds will be light....perfect conditions for what is called radiational cooling. Many lows will drop into the upper 30s....even some mid 30s in some spots.

As I mentioned above, excellent weekend weather will unfold. Highs will be in the 70s. Look for a sunny sky tomorrow with a partly cloudy Sunday sky.

Warm and unsettled next week...

We will have a couple of storm system roll through next week....one early in the work week, and another around Thursday. Both systems will bring the chance of some showers and storms, and the mid-week period will be quite warm with some highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Model madness has taken over toward Halloween weekend.....lots of uncertainty there.

Richard...

Richard is stationary in the Caribbean Sea today, and the system remains a minimal tropical storm. However, the upper level winds are relaxing a bit, and the chances are good for Richard to become a hurricane at some point over the weekend.

The big high pressure that will give us the terrific weekend will also keep Richard suppressed to the south, and it looks like the system will make a landfall on the Yucatan. If the system emerges into the Gulf, it will be pretty far south.

Winter Outlook...

I have begin the process of typing up my winter forecast....I hope to have the discussion and its associated video cut by the middle of next week.

Kamis, 21 Oktober 2010

Winter Outlook 2010

**Issued October 27, 2010**

Above is the video to accompany the winter forecast. Please see it for all of the graphical information. I picture is worth a thousand words.

For those of you that are new to my winter outlooks, my goal each year is to put out my forecast prior to Halloween. The temperature and precip forecasts relative to average are based on December, January, and February, and any snowfall ideas are first flake to last flake, whatever month they occur in.

Last year's winter forecast worked out very, very nicely. I still have all of those maps saved, and the video is still on my youtube channel for those interested. Overall, it went about as well as a seasonal forecast can go.

This time around, my confidence is somewhat lower. One of the dominant weather players for this winter is a strong La Nina. The La Nina is a strong one, and that means there is a relatively small sample size of analog years with similar La Nina values. Due to the low number of analog years, this can sometimes lead you down the wrong path.

Another key factor is how the Atlantic behaves. For much of the year, the NAO and the AO have been on the negative side of things, or at most neutral. One recent exception is a positive spike in those values in early October. How these values unfold will play a major role this winter.

At this point, I am going with the idea that a neutral to negative NAO/AO combination will be with us, at least through the first half of winter.

So, with all of that said, here we go...

The analog years I have gone with are the winters of 55/56, 73/74, 75/76, 88/89, 98/99, 99/00. I have placed more weight in the analogs from the 50s and 70s....reason being a much closer match with the current solar cycle than the other years mentioned as well as a better overall match with the cycle of the PDO, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

So, my overall forecast for the winter.


Please see the maps at the bottom for the individual month breakdowns of the analog years for temps and precip.

For the Carolinas
:
Temperatures: Above average Precipitation: Average to a bit below

That is very vague, so let's get a little more specific. I anticipate, relative to averages, December to be our coldest winter month. For the Southeast, I will go with average December temps. From there, January and February are look above average for the Southeast's temps.

For precip, each of the months look to be fairly close to average. The closer you get to the Gulf coast, the drier it looks overall.

Snowfall forecasts are always tricky. It only takes one quite healthy snow event to reach averages around much of our non-mountain areas. I do think we will have our chances this winter, however, unlike last winter where we had one potential event right after another, they will be fewer in number. If we can cash in on one or two of these potential events, then the region will do OK for snow. If not, then not so much.

I think December could be our best opportunity for winter events, with the potential dwindling a bit as the winter unfolds. However, even in a sea of above average temperatures, it only takes one well-placed upper level low to dump snow. So, back away from the ledge, snow fans. There is always hope.

So again, to recap, the coldest winter temperatures overall look to be during the first half of winter with above average temps taking over as we get deeper into winter. However, the mid-Atlantic to the Tennessee Valley could wind up being a battle ground for airmasses, so there will be some temps swings. And with colder air sitting fairly close by, that could lend itself to some ice or wintry mix events.

Again, please see the video...I get into lots of graphics with more detailed information in there.


December
Temps:

Precip:


January
Temps:

Precip:


February
Temps:

Precip:

Breezy Thursday...



After starting the day with fog in some Piedmont locations, our Thursday will overall be a sunny and breezy day. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, and winds will gust out of the west over 25 or even 30mph at times. Up in the mountains, winds could gust over 50mph at times.

A dry cold front will clear through late today, and behind that front, we will cool down a bit more. I anticipate low to mid 40s tonight for lows and highs tomorrow shy of 70 in many Piedmont locations.

Great weekend...

We will continue our October trend of terrific weekend weather this weekend. Look for lots of sunshine and highs well up into the 70s.

Unsettled next week...

The weather pattern will change for next week. The week overall looks pretty mild, and there will be at least two storm systems impact the region. The first system comes Monday into Tuesday. The second, and likely stronger, system will roll through late in the work week. Each system has the potential to bring some showers and even some thunderstorms.

Behind the late-week system, some colder air will try to invade for Halloween weekend.

Tropics...

TD 19 formed last night in the Caribbean Sea. This system stands a good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Richard relatively soon.

Overall, an eventual track off to the west or northwest is likely, and the system will likely head toward Central America and/or the southern Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned on this one...

Lots of info can be found on the Tropical Weather Page of the site...

Rabu, 20 Oktober 2010

Some AM showers...



Some showers are spreading through the region this morning, and they will exit fairly quickly. In fact, for most of us, the chance of showers will be over by lunch time. We will see a good deal of clouds today, although some sun will work in later this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A cooler night is on tap tonight with lows in the 40s under a clear sky. Tomorrow's weather looks nice, although it will be fairly breezy. We will see a sunny sky and highs in the 70s.

Friday will be a touch cooler with upper 60s to lower 70s again, but highs over the weekend will be well up into the 70s with lots of sun.

More active pattern next week...

As I mentioned yesterday, the overall weather pattern will become more active next week. The first storm system looks to move through later Monday into Tuesday. Mild and more humid air will get pulled northward ahead of that system, and showers looks possible, especially Monday night into Tuesday. At this point, some thunderstorms even look possible as well.

Later next week, another system will likely move into the eastern US...probably late in the work week. Behind that system, a significant push of chilly air could invade much of the eastern half of the country. Still some uncertainty there though....

Richard???

The disturbance in the Caribbean is slowly organizing, and a recon plane is in the system this morning. It is quite possible that we could have a tropical depression or maybe even Tropical Storm Richard later today.

Selasa, 19 Oktober 2010

Warm afternoon temps today...



The region will enjoy lots of sunshine today, and highs will respond accordingly, warming into the lower 80s in many Piedmont locations. Places near the highway 74 corridor really saw temperatures held down a good bit yesterday due to fairly thick high clouds, but today will be warmer.

Clouds will roll right back in tonight as a cold front approaches. That front will bring a limited shower chance, mainly tomorrow morning. The best chance of seeing a shower will be roughly along and north of I-40, and even there, any showers will be brief and relatively light.

Behind the front, a cool, dry airmass will settle in Thursday through the weekend with some 70s for highs and 40s for lows and lots of sun....altogether, nice Autumn weather.

There are some indications that the storm track will become more active next week. Next week looks relatively mild overall, but a big plunge of cold air will invade the US by the end of the week....the big question is where??

Tropics...

There is still a disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea, but it remains fairly disorganized.

Senin, 18 Oktober 2010

Warm afternoon temps...



We enjoyed a wonderful weather weekend with chilly nights and sunny, comfortable afternoons. As we get back into the regular routine today, some high clouds will stream overhead at times, but a lot of sun should get through with highs around 80 degrees.

Tomorrow's weather will be much the same with some mid and high level clouds at times and highs close to 80.

A weak cold front will slide through Wednesday morning, and there will be the chance of a few showers very late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, any showers will be brief and relatively light in nature.

Behind the front, cooler, drier air will arrive Thursday through the upcoming weekend. Highs will likely return to the lower 70s at most with some chilly nights on tap again.

Fall foliage...

Many elevations above 4000' or 4500' in the mountains have now passed peak color, but some great color is there to enjoy this week in the 2500' to 3500' range.

Jumat, 15 Oktober 2010

Fall foliage pics from 10/9/10

Terrific weekend weather...



A cooler airmass has arrived, and the forecast is shaping up very nicely for us right on into next week. Afternoons will be primarily sunny with comfortable temps, and overnight temps will be fairly cool.

Today will be a breezy day with west winds gusting to 30mph or so at times in the Piedmont. Up in the mountains, some 50mph gusts are possible. Highs today will be in the lower 70s for most.

Lows through the weekend will be in the lower 40s, and both Saturday and Sunday morning, some of the traditionally colder spots could see some upper 30s. The weekend will be beautiful.....sunshine both days with upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday for highs and highs Sunday in the mid 70s.

Next week...

Monday and Tuesday will feature lots of sun with highs in the mid 70s. A cold front will slide through mid-week, and at this point, it looks like a dry frontal passage. Quiet, sunny weather looks to continue for the end of next work week.

Paula...

Paula has been downgraded to a tropical depression as shear and interaction with Cuba continue to take a toll.

Foliage...

The high winds today up in the mountains will likely take a toll on some of the foliage. However, more color change will occur over the next couple of days, and the weekend weather in the mountains will be fantastic.

Kamis, 14 Oktober 2010

Chillier air blowing in...



The chance of some showers and storms will be with us this morning as a cold front punches into the region. However, for the I-85 corridor, the rain chances should end by around lunchtime with some clearing this afternoon and breezy conditions. Highs today will range from the upper 60s near the Virginia border to the mid 70s in the southern Piedmont.

Tonight will be much chillier with lows plunging well down into the 40s around the area.

A breezy Friday is in store with a good amount of sunshine and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds could gust over 30mph at times.

Terrific weekend...

A fantastic October weekend is ahead. Look for full sunshine Saturday and Sunday with upper 60s to near 70 for Saturday's highs and mid 70s Sunday. Lows will remain in the low to mid 40s.

Foliage...

Up in the mountains, some really nice color is on display, especially in areas above about 3,000' in elevation. However, windy mountain conditions over the next couple of days will likely strip a a portion of those leaves from the trees.

Paula...

Paula is a minimal hurricane as of this morning's advisory as it is moving into western Cuba. Paula will likely slowly move through western and central Cuba over the next couple of days, weakening as it does so.

Rabu, 13 Oktober 2010

Changes taking place...



After record warmth around the region yesterday, we are heading back to a more typical October temperature regime for the rest of the week and weekend.

Today, highs will be in the 70s with lots of clouds. A passing shower or two is possible today and this evening, but the most widespread shower activity will swing through later tonight into Thursday morning. This will be as the core of our next storm system sweeps through.

Behind the system, a dry, chilly airmass will settle in. Highs Friday and Saturday will likely be shy of 70 in most Piedmont locations, and lows from Friday morning on through Monday or Tuesday morning of next week will be well down into the 40s.

Foliage...

The fall foliage is peaking this week in elevations between 3500' and 5000'. Some showers will occur in the mountains today and tomorrow, with dry, chilly, and sunny conditions Friday through the weekend.

Paula...

Paula remains a category 2 hurricane as of this morning. The hurricane is small and is centered a little east of Cancun and Cozumel. Paula should make a turn to the east and interact with Cuba through the weekend.

Selasa, 12 Oktober 2010

One more day of near record warmth...



Highs Monday surged well up into the 80s around the region, and that is exactly what will occur again today. In many spots, record highs will be tied of exceeded. We will see lots of sun through the day, but some significant weather changes are on our doorstep...

Changes coming....

A storm system that has been parked over the nation's midsection will progress into our region tomorrow. We will see lots of clouds roll in tonight, and tomorrow's sky will be mostly cloudy. As the day unfolds, a chance of showers will develop, and I will maintain shower chances tomorrow night and into a good chunk of Thursday.

Highs tomorrow will be in the 70s, then look for mainly 60s for highs Thursday through Saturday. Lows will drop well down into the 40s from Friday morning onward, and some spots could again see some 30s for lows over the weekend.

Big cold shot?

It still appears a big blast of cold air will plunge into much of the eastern US the last week to 10 days of October.

Paula...

Paula is a hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea. The hurricane will likely lose touch with the steering currents and meander around the western Caribbean for much of the rest of the week. Paula could be a factor for the US down the road.

Senin, 11 Oktober 2010

Near record highs today...



We had a nice, albeit very warm weekend across the region with highs in the 80s from the Piedmont to the coast.

Today will again be quite warm, and many record highs around the region could fall. Highs in the Piedmont will top out in the mid to upper 80s under a sunny sky. Highs tomorrow will be much the same with a lot of sunshine still featured.

Weather changes...

Some big weather changes will occur in time for the second half of the week. One small piece of energy could bring a few showers later Wednesday, but a much more potent system will bring some showers Thursday. Due to clouds and showers, highs Thursday might be held into the 60s in many locations.

A significantly colder airmass will blow in here Thursday night into Friday. Despite a sunny sky, highs Friday and Saturday will likely be in the 60s. Lows will drop well down into the 40s for the upcoming weekend. The weekend also looks like a sunny one, so another great October weekend (this time a much cooler one) is on tap.

Down the road...

I feel a pretty good shot of cold air is likely for much of the eastern US sometime during the last 7-8 days of October.

Tropics...

We are watching a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea for signs of development.

Foliage...

The family and I went up to the mountains Saturday. It was a beautiful day with highs in the low to mid 70s and not a cloud in the sky. As of Saturday, the trees below 3k feet or so were still mostly green. It seems it is the peak of the season for elevations between about 4k and 5500'....many trees above that elevation were already finished for the season.

I forgot to bring my camera in with me to upload a few pics we snapped....will definitely try to do that by tomorrow.

Jumat, 08 Oktober 2010

Great weekend weather...



Highs Thursday topped out in the low to mid 80s for much of the region under a sunny sky as westerly winds downsloping off of the mountains helped the warming process along.

Today, we will see a sunny sky all day long with highs in the upper 70s for most. Sunshine will continue tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Next work week will begin in warm fashion with highs in the mid 80s Monday, but as the week unfolds, we should see highs backing down a bit into the 70s.

As far as rain goes, not much to talk about. I will mention a chance of showers Thursday, but outside of that, dry conditions prevail.

Otto....

Otto is bordering on hurricane strength, but it will race northeastward through the Atlantic Ocean, away from the U.S.

Winter Forecast...

I continue to put a lot of leg work on a daily basis into my Winter forecast. This Winter's forecast is a challenge with some conflicting signals. I have several analog years I like and am using, but the weather results were different in some of those cases. Hopefully, I will have that ready within the next couple of weeks.

Kamis, 07 Oktober 2010

Warmer afternoon temps...



Some terrific Autumn weather is on tap today through the weekend. Nights will remain cool, but afternoon temps will be comfortable and warm. Today, I anticipate many Piedmont highs to top out near 80 degrees with a sunny sky.

Sunshine will abound through the weekend. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s. I have nudged up the weekend highs just a bit....I am now thinking low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.

Up in the mountains, highs this weekend will be in the lower 70s with full sun, so this will be a terrific weekend to head up and check out some of the early season fall foliage. The peak of the fall color season is still a week or two away though.

Otto....

The subtropical storm has begun to make its turn to the northeast, and this system will simply head northeast through the open Atlantic waters.

Rabu, 06 Oktober 2010

Terrific Autumn weather...



We began our Wednesday in chilly fashion with lows in the lower 40s in many locations. Some places even managed to dip into the upper 30s. However, we will see a milder afternoon overall today with highs in the 69-72 degree range for most.

It will remain chilly the next couple of nights with lows in the mid to upper 40s through Saturday morning. Tomorrow and Friday will feature highs in the upper 70s to near 80, then highs this weekend top out in the 80-82 degree range. All days will feature a predominantly sunny sky.

Tropics...

Subtropical Depression 17 has formed east of the Bahamas. It has the subtropical designation because it does not have all of the characteristics of a purely tropical system. This will likely become Otto fairly soon, however, the system will get turned to the northeast and quickly get swept out to sea.

Selasa, 05 Oktober 2010

Cool weather continues...



Highs were in the 60s for most Piedmont spots Monday, and a repeat performance is on tap today. I do think there will be a bit more sunshine today than yesterday, but once again, as we head through the afternoon, there will be an increase in the amount of clouds.

Tonight will be chilly. Many lows will drop into the lower 40s, and I fully expect some Piedmont locations to dip into the upper 30s. A light freeze can't be ruled out in some of the higher mountain locations tomorrow morning.

Highs temps will moderate a bit as the rest of the week unfolds. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Highs Thursday through the weekend will be in the mid to upper 70s...maybe a few 80 degree reading mixed in there somewhere.

Plentiful sunshine will cover the region Thursday through the weekend.

Tropics...

The disturbance in the northeast Caribbean is showing some slow developmental signs, and that could become Otto at some juncture. However, odds favor this system re-curving into the open Atlantic waters.

Senin, 04 Oktober 2010

Cool conditions...



It is a cool, damp start to our Monday with lots of clouds and a few showers. As our Monday unfolds, we will see a good deal of clouds and a few peeks of sun possible. I will also maintain the chance of a few showers, but nothing heavy. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s.

A fairly chilly night is on tap tonight with lows dipping well down into the 40s. Up in the mountains, lows will get well down into the 30s, and some looks possible up that way in some spots. Our lows will remain in the 40s through Thursday morning.

An upper air low will remain pretty close to our area tomorrow, so there will still be a decent amount of clouds. Highs tomorrow will again be in the mid to upper 60s.

High temps will modify toward the end of the week with mid to upper 70s Thursday through the upcoming weekend. I also expect lots of sunshine from mid-week through the weekend, so some nice Autumn weather is on tap.

Tropics...

Nothing terribly impressive....a couple of tropical waves, but no immediate developmental signs.

Jumat, 01 Oktober 2010

Sunshine in full force!



The region will get a nice opportunity to dry out over the next couple of days as we will enjoy abundant sunshine and highs in the 70s. It will also be a little breezy today as some cooler air begins the process of blowing in. That cooler airmass will allow for lows tonight and Saturday night will drop into the upper 40s in many Piedmont locations.

Another upper air low will form just to our northwest Sunday into Monday. As that occurs, an area of low pressure will form just offshore. These features will provide us with some shower chances as well as a continuous feed of chilly air from the northeast.

Sunday will feature at least some chance of a few late day showers with Piedmont highs in the 60s. Monday is looking quite cool with a cloudy sky, some periodic showers, and many Piedmont highs only in the mid to upper 50s!

Highs should try to rebound into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday as more sun gradually works in, and the end of next work week looks terrific with sunshine and highs in the 70s.

Tropics...

We are monitoring a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development is possible with that area.