Rain ending...chillier weather ahead...

The flooding rains that has persisted across a large portion of central and eastern NC will gradually ease eastward today. For the Triad, the rain will largely end by mid-morning. However, the moderate to occasionally heavy rain will continue for much of the day for eastern NC.

Places like the Triad and Charlotte should see a few peeks of sunshine work in as the afternoon progresses. Assuming that does indeed occur, highs will top out in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunshine will return in full force tomorrow and Saturday. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s, and a fresh northwest wind will be gusty at times.

Chillier weather...

A Canadian airmass will settle into the region for the weekend. Lows in many Piedmont locations will wind up in the 40s by Saturday morning, and everybody should be well down into the 40s Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will likely be in the 60s.

The GFS appears to be lost with its handling of the pattern across the eastern US Sunday into next work week. The European, Canadian, and UKMET have largely been in agreement that another upper air low will develop over the eastern US Sunday into next week, while the GFS keeps the trough progressive without a cutoff low forming.

With that in mind, my forecast will mention the chance of showers Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. If we do wind up with a primarily rainy day somewhere in there, highs will likely not get out of the 50s in many spots.

Soaking rains return...

A deep fetch of tropical moisture is getting pulled into the region today, and that process will continue through tonight. The result will be waves of rain that progress through the region from south to north. A few storms could become involved tonight, and I can't rule out the chance of a brief spin-up tornado, mainly in eastern North Carolina.

Rainfall amounts will be generous in many areas. Pinpointing the exact amounts and where exactly the heaviest rain amounts will occur is tricky, but generally speaking, I will say anybody from the I-77 corridor east to the coast is fair game for 1-4" of rain with some spots possibly seeing more.

Today will also be cool with the clouds and rain with most highs in the Piedmont and Foothills only in the mid to upper 60s.

The system pulls away tomorrow, and as that occurs, I will maintain the chance of some showers.

Friday will feature sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to near 80, then a significant push of cool air arrives for the weekend.

Highs Saturday will likely struggle to reach the lower 70s despite a sunny sky. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will then likely only be in the 60s.

I will bring back in rain chances Monday through Wednesday, and if that does pan out, temps Monday and Tuesday could be even cooler than indicated in the formal forecast.

TD 16...

The depression remains disorganized, but there is some chance this could become a tropical storm prior to becoming a non-tropical low pressure area tomorrow. The exact center locations of this one is rather insignificant....large areas of rain and breezy conditions will surround the system for hundreds of miles.

Drying out today....tropical rains arrive tomorrow...

Sunday and Monday were indeed wet periods across the entire region. For the Piedmont, many spots received a nice 2-4" of rain during that 48 hour stretch. The rain amounts really ramped up as you head eastward though. Wilmington was absolutely slammed with rain....totals in that area approached 11 inches!

The upper air low that pulled all of the rain in there is rapidly lifting northeastward away from our area. On the south side of the system, drier air is working in, and that will result in a good deal of sun today with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The weather will then sharply change again. Unsettled weather in the western Caribbean Sea (which might get classified as a tropical system) will get picked up by another strong upper level system diving our way, and the result will be tropical rains spreading into the region tomorrow, tomorrow night, and into Thursday morning.

Rainfall amounts are tricky with this one. There will likely be a pretty sharp gradient in the rainfall totals from west to east, and again, I fully expect the Coastal Plain to get hammered with big rain totals. The rain totals for the Piedmont amongst the various computer models rain from less than an inch to over 4 inches or more....it all depends on exactly how the slug of tropical moisture moves through the region.

Once that system departs later Thursday, cool, dry weather will try to settle in for the weekend. In fact, Piedmont spots could very well see some upper 60s for highs and some 40s for lows by early next week!

Wet Monday...

The wet pattern will persist today across the region, and some generous amounts of rain look quite possible. Through the event thus far, some convection near the Gulf coast has cut down on the rainfall totals a bit, and that might continue. However, still looks like a wet day for sure.

There is some risk of severe weather as the day unfolds. Once west of the Coastal Plain, the airmass is stable this morning. However, some of that instability will likely edge westward into parts of the interior Carolinas today. As some dynamics get involved, some storms could produce an isolated tornado or two as well as damaging winds.

We have definitely made a large-scale pattern change. For the next couple of weeks, the upper air pattern will try to settle into an eastern North America trough more often than not.

Matthew and a major weather change...

HPC 5-day QPF map above.


No new video today, but a quick discussion.....

Tropical Storm Matthew (who is near and dear to my heart) is in the western Caribbean Sea this morning. Matthew will be battling various land interactions with central America over the next few days, and that will be the main determining factor in the short term regarding Matthew's intensity.

Generally speaking, Matthew will head west-northwest before the steering currents break down near the Yucatan Peninsula. From that point on, a great deal of uncertainty exists as to where Matthew will head. At this point, the long-term scenario that a lot of modeling is indicating is that Matthew will begin to lift north or northeast toward the Florida Peninsula and then possible riding up very close to the East Coast from north Florida up through the Carolinas.

However, let me stress that at this point, I have very little confidence in any one model solution, and it is simply too soon to tell where Matthew will head in the longer term.

Big changes on the doorstep....

For our region, a cold front will approach later tomorrow, and there will be some chance of some showers and storms later in the day. Then, it sure looks like a couple of wet days are on the way Sunday and Monday.

A cold air damming scenario will unfold. We will have a cool, northeasterly flow in place at the surface, and lots of moisture will get lifted up and over that wedge. As it appears now, it looks like a lot of the deeper moisture will pull away by Tuesday.

Sunday and Monday will be much cooler with 70s for a lot of highs....maybe even some Piedmont spots not making it out of the 60s! Rainfall amounts should be fairly generous...maybe widespread 1-3." The heavier amounts will likely end up in the mountains and foothills.

The forecast later in the week will largely depend on the eventual track of Matthew. If a track near the coast takes place, much of the interior Carolinas would be on the dry side of the system with a cool and dry forecast late in the week. A farther west track would lead to more rain. We will see....

Fall has arrived....but summertime temps for a couple of days

Fall officially arrived late Wednesday evening, but summertime temps will persist for a couple more days. Today will be quite hot by late September standards with Piedmont highs in the low to mid 90s. It will remain hot tomorrow as well, although the overall highs will likely be a degree or two 'cooler' than today. Look for lots of sun today and tomorrow as well.

Big pattern change...

A major shift in the upper air pattern across North America is set to occur as we head through this weekend. For our region, we will see a cold front drop in Saturday. Saturday will still be quite warm with highs in the upper 80s to maybe some lower 90s, but the cooler air will build in thereafter.

A cold air damming scenario will set up Sunday into Monday and maybe Tuesday of next week. Sunday will likely feature a good deal of clouds and the chance of some showers and storms. How quickly the moisture begins to overrun the wedge will determine how warm we get Sunday, but overall, I am thinking some 70s for highs.

Monday looks like a wet day with highs in some spots possibly struggling to reach the low to mid 70s. I will maintain good chance of showers and maybe some storms Tuesday.

Beyond that point, it all depends on the tropics.

Tropics...

Lisa is a weak system....tropical depression as of now. Lisa will likely remain in the eastern or central Atlantic a generally be a non-factor for land.

The disturbance in the Caribbean is still disorganized this morning. However, most modeling continues to insist that this will develop into an organized system in time. If a classified system does develop, it stands a good chance of getting drawn northward into the Southeast later next week. Even is the system never does develop, the tropical moisture from that area will likely still get pulled northward into the Southeast next week, enhancing our rain opportunities.

Hot weather to round out the work week....

Well above average temps will continue across the region through the end of the work week. Highs today will be in the lower 90s for most, and then look for low to mid 90s tomorrow and Friday.

I will continue to mention a very limited chance of a few isolated showers or storms late this afternoon and early this evening, but most spots will remain dry. I anticipate a mostly sunny sky tomorrow and Friday.

Big weather changes...

A major pattern shift will begin to unfold this weekend. Saturday still looks mainly dry and hot, but Saturday night and Sunday will feature the chance of some showers and storms. Highs Sunday will be much cooler...likely lower 80 at most for the Piedmont.

A big upper air low will set up shop just to our west early next week, and that will put us on the unsettled side of the system. That is good news...we need the rain. As it stands now, the weather Monday through Wednesday is looking unsettled and much cooler. I have good chances of showers and storms on those days and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Lisa is way out on the other side of the Atlantic. A very slow movement to the west-northwest is likely with the system.

While it doesn't look terribly impressive this morning, there is a good likelihood that a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea will eventually become Matthew. Almost every computer model eventually draws this system northward and winds up making this system a threat to the US by the beginning of October. Plenty of time to watch it.

Changes ahead....eventually.....

The warm and dry weather will continue through the remainder of the work week with highs well above the seasonal averages. In fact, many spots through Friday, and maybe even Saturday, will remain at least 10 degrees above average for high temps.

However, my confidence is much higher today in the timing of a significant pattern chance. Those weather changes begin this weekend.

A strong cold front will approach later Saturday, and that front does look to bring the chance of some showers and storms, especially Saturday night into Sunday.

That front will be propelled southward by a significant trough that will carve itself out across the eastern US. If that does indeed occur, and I am more confident today that it will, then we will wind up with highs at or even a bit below normal by early next work week.

Tropics...

Igor is becoming a non-tropical low pressure area today as it races through the north Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Lisa has developed in the eastern Atlantic. It looks to rather slowly meander around the eastern Atlantic Ocean through the week.

I continue to see good signs that another tropical system will likely develop in the Caribbean Sea later in the week. If that does occur, it could wind up being a potential problem for the US way down the road.

ZZzzzzz......

Before I delve into the weather, let me just share what a putrid football weekend that was for me. My Bulldogs went down to Baton Rouge and came out of there with a sound defeat. 5 turnovers. Odd thing is, MSU outdid LSU in almost every major statistical category.....except turnovers. You are simply not going to win, really at any level of football, with 5 turnovers.

Then there is the Panthers. Ugh. My wife is a Bucs fan, and we really enjoy poking fun at each other on Panthers-Bucs gameday. Yesterday didn't turn out to well.....



On to the weather. As the title of this post indicates, the weather is such that it sort of puts you to sleep. Simply put, there is just nothing in the way of major storm systems headed our way. Highs each afternoon will continue to be well above September averages all week long...in fact, most days will feature highs in the lower 90s.

The drought conditions continue to worsen across the region. And once again, I have no formal rain chance in the entire seven day outlook.

Long term....

There continue to be come signs of a pattern chance in the 7-10 day range that might lead to some cooler temps....but nothing to really hang your hat on yet.

Tropics...

Igor lashed Bermuda for much of the weekend, but the island will see improvement today as Igor continues to pull away.

Julia continues to fall apart as it heads east way out in the Atlantic.

Most of the modeling is indicating some sort of tropical development will try to occur in the western Caribbean Sea late this week. If that does occur, that would likely be something to watch for US landfall implications down the road.

Very small rain chance today...

A cold front is pressing through the region today, and as that continues to occur, there is a very limited chance of a couple of isolated showers or storms. However, I anticipate the vast majority of our area will remain dry, and the chance of any one spot seeing measurable rain today is likely less than 1 in 10.

Highs today will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with a partly sunny sky. Lows tonight drop into the 60s.

A good-looking weekend is on tap with sunshine and highs Saturday in the 80s and Sunday's highs in the lower 90s.

The warmth marches on next week with lots of upper 80s and lower 90s for highs.

Tropics...

Karl is now a major hurricane, and Karl will likely continue to strengthen right up until it makes landfall on the Mexican coast late today. The system will then rapidly spin down as it encounters the mountains of Mexico, however, flooding and mudslides will then become a problem.

Igor remains a major hurricane, and will likely continue as a major hurricane as it passes very close to Bermuda Sunday night into Monday morning. Igor will still be moving relatively slowly as it impacts Bermuda, so an extended period of hurricane-force winds are likely there.

Julia continues to weaken as it heads into the open waters of the Atlantic.

Aside from wave action and rip currents, none of the systems will have a U.S. impact.

Karl update....

Karl is exploding in intensity today, and I think it has a chance to be a formidable hurricane when it makes it's second landfall in Mexico late tomorrow.

Same song, different verse....

If you have creative ways of saying "warm and dry," let me know....because I have officially run out.

The same type of weather will continue around our region for at least the next week or so. Highs today will be in the lower 90s across the region. A cold front is approaching the area, and out ahead of that front, we will see some mainly high clouds at times today. The breezes will also pick up a bit out of the southwest, and that will enhance the fire danger today with the dry ground and low humidity levels we have in place.

The front will progress south of the region with time tomorrow and tomorrow night. I expect the I-85 corridor to remain dry, however, a few showers are possible over in the Coastal Plain. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The weekend will be sunny with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and around 90 or so Sunday.

More of the same next work week...highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lots of sunshine.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Karl has gotten back over water down in the Bay of Capeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Karl could become a weak hurricane prior to its second landfall in Mexico.

Igor remains a powerhouse hurricane with 145mph sustained winds. Igor continues to head on a track that will take it very near Bermuda by early Monday morning. While Igor should weaken before affecting Bermuda, it will likely still be a formidable hurricane.

Hurricane Julia continues to weaken in the eastern Atlantic....it will remain in the open waters.

More of the same....

The overall weather pattern will remain the same around our region for the foreseeable future. We will continue to see lots of sunshine, warm afternoon temps, and pleasant nights. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the lower 90s with mid to upper 80s Friday through the weekend. Highs next work week will likely pop back up into the lower 90s at times.

The airmass remains very dry, and that means humidity levels will remain low. It also means that rain chances remain very, very low. So, even though we have a pretty strong storm system that will swing just to our north later tomorrow into early Friday, with no moisture to work with, our rain chances will remain extremely low.

Tropics...

Lots going on in the tropics. One at a time...

Igor..... Category 4 with 145mph sustained winds...located northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Igor will head in the general direction of Bermuda Sunday, but will stay well east of the US mainland.

Julia.... Category 4 with 135mph winds...located in the eastern Atlantic. Julia will head generally northwestward into the open waters of the Atlantic.

Karl.... Tropical Storm with 65mph winds....moving into the Yucatan Peninsula from the Caribbean Sea. Karl will get back over water in the Bay of Campeche later Thursday, then make another landfall in Mexico early Saturday.

Quiet weather continues....Powerful Igor in the Atlantic

Our quiet stretch of weather continues today, and there will not be a great deal of day to day weather changes over the next week or so.

Today will feature lots of sunshine with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Again today, humidity levels will remain quite low. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s.

Highs will top out in the lower 90s in most places tomorrow with upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday. A fairly potent storm system will scoot by to our north Thursday night into Friday morning, but I only anticipate a brief increase in clouds with the system.

Highs Friday into the weekend will be in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

We look to remain warm and dry for the first few days of next work week with highs up into the lower 90s in many spots.

Tropics...

Igor remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 135mph. Igor has been stubborn with showing any northward component of motion, but there are signs that a gradual bend to the WNW has begun. All indications remain that Igor will stay well east of the US mainland, but a pass fairly close to Bermuda still looks quite possible. Igor will fluctuate in intensity but should remain a powerful hurricane.

Hurricane Julia is way out on the other side of the Atlantic. It still appears Julia will head northwest into the open Atlantic waters.

And, our disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is not any better organized this morning. There remains at least some chance of this becoming a classified system as it heads toward the Yucatan, the southern Gulf, and then likely Mexico.

College football talk...

What I anticipated to be a terrific day of college football last Saturday wound up being kind of....meh. Of course, a so-so day of college football is exponentially better than a terrific sports day in July, so it is all about perspective, as Dr. Wax (college meteorology professor) used to say.

Some random thoughts, in no particular order....

-Alabama is good.....very good. Granted, I don't think Penn State is exactly a world-beater, but that was a far more dominating game than even the score indicated. The Big 10 never, ever seems to do well against the SEC, and this was definitely no exception. As for Alabama, if anybody, anywhere, had any doubts as to Trent Richardson's abilities, those were quickly done away with. That guy is a freak...a rare combination of incredible power with agility and speed. Oh yeah....and their QB has never lost a game he started, and they have a couple of NFL-caliber WRs. Now throw the Heisman Trophy winner back into the equation....yikes. I still think they will likely lose somewhere along the line, but good luck trying to figure out when.

-South Carolina just might very well be the team to beat in the SEC East. With a win Saturday over Georgia, they have overcome a hurdle that normally trips them up. And the second factor that makes me say that is....

-Florida's offense continues to really struggle. They pulled away late in the game against South Florida, but it was a struggle for quite a while. Sure gives me the idea that the SEC East will be decided November 13 in The Swamp.

-Just a painful loss for my MSU Bulldogs to Auburn Thursday night. Some people say that those were two bad teams duking it out. I don't think so. I think it was two good teams scratching and clawing. The game was right there for the taking for State, and too many missed opportunities did us in. Credit to Auburn...they will win a lot of games this year, and Cam Newton is the real deal.

-Virginia Tech....classic case of a team just not emotionally recovering from a game against Boise State where they simply left it all out on the field. Or maybe they are just that bad. But I doubt it. However, this VT loss to James Madison likely ended (or darn close to ended) the national title chances for Boise State.

-Florida State.....still really bad on defense. Of course, that Oklahoma offense makes most defenses look bad.

- Ohio State....tough to know how good Miami is, but Ohio State is good. Many wondered if the Hurricanes were a mature enough team to go into Columbus and get a win.....not yet.

-Tennessee played a great game against Oregon....for a half. Then the Ducks simply squeezed the life out of the Vols and sent 102,000 home wet and unhappy.

- LSU- Good defense...putrid offense. It will be a battle down in Baton Rouge this Saturday night when my Bulldogs travel down there. It is beyond difficult to win a night game down there, but it should be an entertaining game.

-The ACC....wow, that was a bad weekend. This conference is trying hard to gain respectability in the football arena.....weekends like that one don't help. However, NC State had a nice win, and Virginia was very close out in LA.

Well, that's about enough for now...I might type up some NFL talk later in the week....

Warm afternoons, pleasant nights....

I am back into the regular routine this morning after being away from the weather office last week.

Our region as a whole could use a nice, soaking rain event. Unfortunately, that is not on tap this week. However, since it will remain dry, we might as well get some nice weather to enjoy, and that is the case.

Today highs will warm into the mid 80s for most with lots of sun. Tomorrow, it will be upper 80s to near 90. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday with continued sunshine. Lows each morning will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

I mentioned the region needing some rain. The drought conditions are not to critical levels, but it would be nice to get a couple of good rain events in here. Here are some rainfall deficits since January 1 across the region:

Charlotte: -2.90"
Greensboro: -0.76"
Raleigh: -7.03"
Asheville: -3.16"
Wilmington: -13.05"
GSP: -2.03"

Tropics...

Hurricane Igor is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150mph. Igor might even strengthen a bit more over the next couple of days before a gradual weakening trend begins.

Odds are Igor will not threaten the US East Coast, although that is not set in stone. Interests in Bermuda need to closely monitor Igor's progress.

Tropical Storm Julia is way out in the eastern Atlantic. This will likely be a 'fish storm' and not threaten land.

There is also an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that bears watching for signs of development. It will likely head across the Yucatan and toward northern Mexico.

College Football

I am out of the weather office this week. So, the regular schedule of blog posts and videos will not happen this week. No worries....we will be back to the regular routine Monday morning.

How about the start to college football season? First of all, my Mississippi State Bulldogs looked very good in a dominating opening-game win against the Memphis Tigers, 49-7. And, as a State grad and fan, it brought me great joy to see Ole Miss lose to Jacksonville State.

Some terrific games overall. What a finish to the LSU-UNC game...If you are a UNC fan, you have to be proud of the way your team, even in its depleted state, fought back and had a chance to win after being way, way down earlier in the game.

The Boise St-Va Tech game was terrific. One thing I noticed was this....if you think back to Boise State's victory over Oklahoma a few seasons ago, a lot of trickeration and razzle dazzle was involved. Boise has progressed to a point now where they can just line up and beat you. They don't need trick plays and any smoke and mirrors....they have the talent and coaching to just beat you.

They are a great team, and they deserve to be in the national conversation. However, I still say that if you put Boise State in the SEC, they will lose a few games each year. So, I would still be inclined to give a break to a one-loss SEC team in terms of national championship consideration.

What a finish to the ECU game yesterday as well! Just some great stuff.

Several other really great games....a great start to the season. And the slate of games this Saturday is just terrific. Of greatest personal interest to me, however, is the Thursday night tilt pitting my Bulldogs against the Auburn Tigers. The game will be in Starkville, and it will be a great atmosphere.

And, of course, the NFL gets underway this week. An interesting season ahead. I expect the Panthers offense to look much better once the lights go on in a real game, and if the defense continues to play at a high level, a nice season is possible.

Earl pulling away...delightful weekend weather....

The center of Hurricane Earl did stay just east of the Outer Banks, meaning the worst of Earl's weather remains over the waters of the Atlantic. However, the Outer Banks continue to take a lashing with rain and wind this morning. There has been some overwash of Hwy 12 in spots, and the surf has been very impressive.

Conditions will improve along the coast later today as Earl lifts fairly quickly to the NNE. For our viewing area, today will be hot and a bit breezy with highs in the mid 90s.

Delightful Labor Day weekend weather...

The weather does not get much better than what we will get to enjoy this weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the low 80s for most, and Piedmont lows Sunday and Monday morning will be in the 50s with mountain lows in the 40s.

If you have beach plans for the weekend, go for it. The weather will be great with sunshine and warm afternoon temps. There will be some lingering rip current issues for a couple of days, so just use some caution.

Temps will warm up by mid-week next week with some lower 90s back in place for highs.

Elsewhere in the tropics...

Tropical Storm Fiona will head toward Bermuda as a relatively weak system.

Gaston degenerated into a tropical wave yesterday, but I think there is a pretty decent chance it will develop again over the next several days.

Afternoon update...

Hurricane Earl has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane, and more gradual weakening is expected. It still looks like the center will pass just east of Cape Hatteras.

The wind field is expanding with the hurricane, so I have no changes in my thoughts that the OBX will see a period of hurricane force winds tonight. 4-10" of rain are possible, and I still expect beach erosion to be a significant problem. Overwash over Highway 12 still seems like a likelihood in some spots.

From looking at some of the shots from the Cams and Streams Page I assembled, you can really see the surf picking up. The stream from Top Sail beach is especially interesting to watch as the waves have already washed up and past the little dune fences.

High tide at Hatteras is around 2:30am, and this will obviously only add the the problem.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina through the night and into tomorrow for the most comprehensive Earl coverage you can find. We have reporters stationed up and down the coast, and we will bring you the very latest information around the clock.

The Weather on the Ones forecast centers around the state will be staffed all night long....I know Matt Morano and I will be in the office by around 1:30am to take the baton from Jeff Crum and Doug Lindsay for the Charlotte and Triad markets.

All eyes on Earl....Big cool-down this weekend....

**Be sure and check out the Earl Cams and Streams page**



All eyes are on Hurricane Earl. Earl is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with 145mph sustained winds as of this morning. I think Earl has now peaked in intensity, and some gradual weakening will likely take place today. My feelings are that the center of Earl will likely pass just east of the Outer Banks as a Category 3 late tonight.

For the Outer Banks, rain will move in later today, and the wind will increase into tonight. There will likely be a several hour period of hurricane-force winds as the center makes its closest pass.

Surf will increase all up and down the Carolina coast today. Stay out of the water.....there will be tremendous rip currents. For the Outer Banks, a storm surge of 3-6 feet seems likely tonight, and waves near shore will likely be 10-maybe even 20 feet.

For the interior Carolinas, it will be hard to tell a major hurricane is so close. Some high clouds will be possible at times, but no rain, and winds only in the 10-20mph range. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s.

Behind Earl, Friday will be hot with highs in the mid 90s. But bit changes are right around the corner....

Labor Day weekend...

The big cool-down is still on tap for the Labor Day weekend. Highs Saturday through Monday will only be in the 80s, and lows Sunday and Monday morning will drop into the 50s in many Piedmont locations. Mountain lows will dip into the 40s.

Highs will briefly return to the 90s for the middle of next week before we cool down again toward the end of the week.

Elsewhere in the tropics...

Fiona is very weak and will head in the general direction of Bermuda.

Gaston will likely take a farther south track as it heads toward the northeast Caribbean, but it will be a very slow mover. It likely will still not have reached the northeast Caribbean islands by Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

Still hot and dry....Earl getting closer to the coast...

Highs surged into the mid 90s across the region yesterday, and more of the same is on tap today. Again today, we will see plentiful sunshine and very low humidity levels.

Earl will approach the Outer Banks tomorrow but will have little impact here in the Piedmont. Winds will be slightly higher, but still less than 20mph, and we will remain rain-free. It will still be pretty hot tomorrow as well with highs in the low to mid 90s.

We will have one more hot day Friday before big changes occur. Highs Friday will be in the mid 90s with lots of sun.

Labor Day weekend...

A big-time switch to cooler air will arrive for the weekend. Saturday through Monday will feature highs in the 80s and a sunny sky. Low temps will drop into the 50s for most Piedmont locations Sunday and Monday morning! I fully anticipate some 40s up in the the higher mountain spots.

Temps will rebound next week with some 90s for highs at least briefly returning Tuesday and Wednesday.

Earl...

Earl weakened a bit overnight and is a Category 3 hurricane with 125mph sustained winds as of this morning. The upper level pattern around Earl will actually improve a bit today, so odds are Earl will at least hold its general intensity for the next 24 to 36 hours.

The general track ideas remain unchanged. The actual center of Earl will likely remain just east of the Outer Banks as it races northward Thursday night into Friday morning. However, it will likely be close enough for some rain and wind (with winds likely to hurricane intensity at times) in the Outer Banks.

I expect waves to be a big problem with some 15 foot to maybe even 20 foot seas possible. Obviously, rip currents will be a huge issue. Beach erosion will likely be a significant issue in some spots as well.

Any rain in the outer Banks will end by later Friday, and the seas will improve Friday as well. However, rip currents will remain a problem through the Labor Day weekend.

Fiona...

Fiona is a little improved in structure this morning, and the distance between Fiona and Earl is increasing. So, at this point, I doubt Fiona gets absorbed by Earl. If Fiona can survive the next several days, it might wind up getting trapped beneath a ridge and be an issue for somebody in the US down the road.

Don't look now, but there is another tropical wave east of Fiona that might eventually become Gaston.