Hot and dry....Still watching Earl...

We will have more desert-like days today and tomorrow across the region with highs in the mid 90s in the Piedmont and very low levels of humidity. We will also continue to see lots of sunshine. Nights will remain pleasant with lows well down into the 60s.

It will remain fairly hot through the work week with 90s for highs through Friday. Any rain from Earl will remain confined to areas east of I-95.

Big cool down....

A strong cold front will pass through by early Saturday. Now, by 'strong,' I mean a front that features a big temperature change. I still think the rain chance with the front is extremely small.

Behind the front, look for 80s for highs Saturday through Monday. Morning lows will dip into the low to mid 60s, and I expect a number of Piedmont locations to dip into the 50s for lows Sunday morning. Some mountain lows in the 40s are entirely possible.

Earl...

Hurricane Earl is a powerhouse. The hurricane is a Category 4 with winds of 135mph as of the 5am advisory. Earl is going through what is called an eyewall replacement cycle this morning. This is where a new 'eye' develops outside of the original one, and that new eye will gradually take over. How quickly this process unfolds will determine the intensity of Earl today.

All in all, Earl should remain a powerful hurricane over the next couple of days, although some weakening seems likely as it begins to get closer to the coast Thursday. Earl still looks to brush very close to the Outer Banks Thursday night. Exactly how close to the coast is still a question mark.

All up and down the Eastern Seaboard, increased surf and rip currents will remain a big problem through the week. How much wind and rain the coast sees will be determined by the exact track.


Fiona...

The short-term prospects for Fiona are not too good. It is fairly close to Earl, and that will prevent significant strengthening. Lots of the modeling simply shows Fiona getting absorbed by Earl over the next several days. That is possible. Another possibility is that as Earl pulls away, Fiona gets 'trapped' beneath a developing upper level ridge and eventually gets shunted toward the coast later next week. Time will tell....

Desert-like air....watching Earl closely

The next few days around the Carolinas will feature an airmass you would more typically see in desert regions. Look for a mainly clear sky, pleasant nights, and hot, low humidity afternoons. Highs today will be in the lower 90s...look for mid 90s tomorrow and Wednesday.

I will mention a few clouds Thursday for the Piedmont as Earl makes its closest pass to North Carolina (more on Earl below), then sunshine and low to mid 90s Friday.

Delightful Labor Day weekend...

The first 'real' cold front of the year looks to move through in time for a wonderful Labor Day weekend forecast. Highs will back down into the 80s, humidity will be very low, and lows will be in the lower 60s...maybe even a few Piedmont spots in the upper 50s....by Sunday and Monday.

Earl...

Hurricane Earl is strengthening in the northeast Caribbean Islands and will likely become a Category 3 hurricane today. Earl will gradually bend to the northwest over the next couple of days and will wind up passing very close to the Outer Banks later Thursday. The exact track is still in question, but it is close enough that all interests up and down the Carolina coast need to closely monitor Earl's progress. Locations even farther northward toward the New England states need to monitor Earl as well.

Regardless of the specific track, big-time surf and rip current issues will occur all week up and down the east coast.

Katrina Anniversary

I will probably share some more thoughts on the 5-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina in the coming days. I was an on-air meteorologist at WTVA, the NBC affiliate in Tupelo, MS at the time. Katrina was a mere two weeks before I started at News 14 Carolina.

I will never forget watching the explosive strengthening of Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico that weekend. It was an awe-inspiring as well as gut-sinking process to behold for me personally. I had a strong feeling that this was, in fact, going to be the catastrophic event for New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf coast that our meteorology professors back in college had taught us to look for. I just remember the distinct feeling I had that this was going to be a tremendous disaster. I remember getting increasingly angry as evacuation orders along the Golf coast continued to be delayed. All of the ingredients were there for a colossal disaster.

I handled all of the television weathercasts that weekend....in fact, I think I was given nearly 5 minutes (!) for my weathercast on the 10pm Sunday evening show as Katrina was nearing landfall. I still have the tape of my weathercast that evening....I would like to get it up on youtube for anybody that is interested.

At any rate, I will never in my life forget reading the so-called "Doomsday Statement" put out by the National Weather Service in New Orleans. Here is a link to that weather statement.

Sunday morning....

Out in the eastern Atlantic, Tropical Depression 6 formed late Saturday. This is the system off of Africa I discussed for much of the previous week in the tropical updates on News 14 and in my daily discussion and videos.

The system will likely steadily intensify, and should become a pretty decent hurricane. The general consensus amongst the modeling remains that this will bend northward in the Atlantic a bit, but the longer-range GFS and European wind up bending it back a little westward, which would result in it taking an eventual track that leads to some gnashing of teeth around the US East coast by early September. But lots of time between now and then.

On another note, I am on vacation this week, and I will return to the weather office Monday, August 30. This is my week of 'radio silence,' meaning this is the week I 'unplug' from the computer, television, phone, etc.....this is a real re-charge of the batteries for me.

Everyone have a wonderful week, and I will probably be plugged back in enough to make some comments or posts in some capacity by next weekend.

Sunshine with lower humidity!

After a dreary, rainy, and stormy day across the region yesterday, a much different type of day will unfold today. Sunshine will return to the area, and there will be a significant decrease in the humidity levels as the day unfolds. Highs will top out close to 90 for most.

Lows tonight will settles into the upper 60s, and then lower 90s are on tap tomorrow with a good amount of sun. Some showers and storms will be possible in South Carolina, but I expect most of North Carolina to be dry.

Our next front will get close enough Sunday to bring back in the chance of some showers and storms, and that chance will extend into Monday as well. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 80s both of those days.

After that, the weather looks pretty quiet for much of the rest of the week. Another cold front will pass through later in the week, but at this point, that front has the appearance of passing through in mainly dry fashion.

Tropics...

Still no active systems in the Atlantic Basin. The most likely area for development over the next few days is way out in the eastern Atlantic.

An unsettled Thursday...

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....



Unsettled weather will remain with us today. We remain in a soupy airmass, and a series of disturbances continue to roll through the region. The result is waves of showers and storms. Flash flooding will remain a possibility, and a few severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.

A much different type of day is on tap for tomorrow. Drier air will settle in from the north, resulting in less humidity, lots of sun, and a dry forecast. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Saturday looks dry outside of the mountains with highs in the low to even some mid 90s. Humidity levels should remain low. A few storms return to the region Sunday, although the chances will be highest the farther south you go.

Monday will feature a little better chance of some showers and storms, and after that, I will maintain at least some chance of a few showers or storms on a daily basis through Thursday.

Temperatures will not be bad with lots of mid to upper 80s for highs next work week.

Tropics...

Still eying a tropical wave that has emerged off of Africa. All modeling develops this into a tropical system over the next couple of days, but almost all modeling winds up re-curving the system north into the Atlantic before threatening the US. Way too soon for any confidence yet....we don't even have a track-able system yet.

Shower and storm chances...

A stalled frontal boundary remains draped through the region, and we remain in a warm, muggy airmass. Another disturbance will roll into the region later today, and the result will be more shower and storm chances this afternoon through tonight. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most.

Tomorrow also looks unsettled with good shower and storm chances and highs in the 80s.

There remains the possibility of some locally heavy amounts of rain the next couple of days, and some localized flash flooding issues are possible.

Some drier air will slip in here for Friday, and thus Friday still looks primarily dry with highs close to 90 or so. An isolated storm is possible Saturday before we see better shower and storm chances again Sunday and Monday.

It still looks like a nice upper air low will carve itself out around the eastern seaboard early next work week. This will likely wind up keeping a lot of our highs in the 80s at that point.

Tropics...

Nothing brewing now, but all indications continue to be that we are headed into a more active period of tropical waves emerging off of Africa.

Increasing shower and storm chances...

Warm and humid conditions are continuing today around our region, and most highs outside of the mountains should reach the lower 90s this afternoon. Through a good chunk of the day, the best shower and storm chances will be in the mountains and foothills, but late this afternoon into this evening, the scattered showers and storms will likely slide into portions of the Piedmont.

Tomorrow looks unsettled with good shower and storm chances. An upper level disturbance will interact with this very muggy airmass, and the result should be a good coverage of showers and storms.

A few showers and storms will remain possible Thursday with mainly dry conditions Friday. Over the weekend, another disturbance will approach and bring the chance of some showers and storms.

There continue to be good indications of some troughiness near the eastern seaboard by early next week, and the result would likely be some cooler temps and some chance of some showers and storms.

Tropics...

The remnant low of Tropical Depression 5 was very close to getting re-classified as a tropical depression yesterday, but that opportunity has come to an end as the system is moving into Louisiana. More heavy rain is likely over the next several days in much of Louisiana and Mississippi into parts of Alabama.

I feel we are right on the cusp of tropical activity picking up. I think we will see the African wave train come to life later this week, and there are plenty of indications that we will begin to see organized tropical systems out in the Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.

Warm with scattered storms...

We did get somewhat of a break from the heat over the weekend with many places seeing some 80s for highs. Overall, this week will be warm, but I don't see any signs of really oppressive heat. Scattered storms will be a common theme as well.

Today, highs will return to the lower 90s for much of the region, and as we progress through the afternoon hours, we will see scattered showers and storms fire.

More of the same tomorrow with highs close to 90 and scattered storm chances.

Wednesday into Thursday might see an increase in the coverage of showers and storms, and then a decrease in that coverage is possible Friday into the weekend. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s Wednesday, then back into the lower 90s to end the week.

Tropics...

The remnant low of Tropical Depression 5 is back in the extreme northern Gulf of Mexico, and this has some chance of getting re-classified as a tropical system. It will head generally westward toward Louisiana.

Saturday....

I am working the Saturday shift at the big 14 today, so I figured I would post up a quick discussion.....

The 'wedge' scenario is in play today, and the result is lots of clouds and cooler temperatures. Highs today should only be in the mid to upper 80s around the region.

Through the southern and western Piedmont into the foothills, the chance of occasional showers and storms today is pretty high. We are in a moisture-packed environment, so some locally heavy rain will be possible.

Tomorrow, I will maintain the risk of a few showers and storms, and it will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Our next cold front will get close enough to us to being storm chances next week. The front will be a slow mover, and that will mean several days of increased storm chances. Right now, the mid-week period looks to feature the most significant coverage of showers and storms.

Weather changes...

A cold front continues to slip south of the region today. Behind that cold front, high pressure, centered over the New England states, will wedge down the eastern side of the mountains and will set up one of our cold air damming (or wedging) scenarios this weekend.

The process begins today with winds switching around out of the northeast. Today will still be fairly hot with highs in the lower 90s, and the chances remain today for a few passing showers or storms.

We will really feel the wedge this weekend. I anticipate lots of clouds and some showers from time to time. There will be some chance of a few storms, but the severe weather threat looks low, and anticipate most of the rain to come from showers as opposed to storms.

It will be significantly cooler this weekend as well with highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid 80s at best for most spots.

Next work week...

Our next cold front will gradually approach from the northwest. Gradually is the operative word here as we might not see the front actually move into the area until Thursday or Friday. Ahead of the front, we will have a broad southeasterly flow off of the Atlantic. This will mean warm temps, humid conditions, and a daily storm chance.

The remnants of Tropical Depression 5 will likely continue to produce lots of rain over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Florida for the next four or five days, as that system will just meander around that region. There is some chance that the deeper moisture associated with that feature could wind up enhancing rain and storm chances in the Carolinas later next work week.

Scattered storms....cooler temps ahead....

I want to start off by showing a beautiful phenomenon that I personally had never witnessed until yesterday evening. Many thanks to my good friend and neighbor Carrie Campbell for giving me a call to see it, and then getting and sending me some great shots.

The phenomenon appears to be iridescent clouds. Here is what appeared to occur. There were some broken cirrus clouds yesterday evening about 30-40 thousand feet or so off the ground. Then, some big cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds developed vertically until they actually reached and then bowed up the cirrus clouds. The evening sun then hit those cirrus clouds. The result was a breath-taking display....truly one of the most beautiful things I have seen. Here are a few shots Carrie got of the event....be sure and click to see a larger image. **Note, these images have not been altered in any way.**


Here is the link to Carrie's blog where she shares more of the pictures!





Many areas along and north of roughly I-40 saw some intense areas of rain and storms yesterday evening, and some 2-3" rain amounts (and locally even higher totals) occurred.

Today, we have a cold front dropping into the area. That will likely trigger scattered storms around the region, and some of the storms will likely produce some damaging wind gusts. Highs today will be in the 90s around the region.

The front will begin to slide south of us tomorrow. I will still mention some chance of showers and storms tomorrow with most highs in the lower side of the 90s.

For the weekend, high pressure will wedge down the eastern side of the mountains, that will likely spell clouds, some cooler temps, and a shower chance at times. Highs will be in the 80s for much of the region Saturday and Sunday.

Next work week, I anticipate a daily chance of a few storms with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tropics...

Tropical Depression 5 lost its right with shear yesterday and is just a remnant low. However, like I mentioned yesterday, the biggest issue with this system is rain, and some high rain totals are likely in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and western Florida over the next several days.

There are a couple other tropical waves well out to sea, but no development is imminent.

Hot and humid....storm chances increasing...TD 5 in the Gulf

Our Wednesday forecast is a hot and humid one with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values over 100 and even over 105 at times in some spots. Take it easy out there. I expect there to be the chance of a few late-day storms, and the chances for storms might actually be a little greater this evening.

Tomorrow, a frontal boundary sags into the area from the north, and in turn, our chances for scattered storms increases. It will still be fairly hot though with highs in the mid 90s in many places.

The placement of that front will play a large role in the specifics of our weather Friday into the weekend. At this point, I will back down highs Friday into the upper 80s to around 90 with that front sliding a little farther south. Friday will still feature good chances of scattered showers and storms.

For Saturday, high pressure will wedge down into our area from the north, and we will likely see lots of clouds and the chance of some showers at times with highs in the upper 80s. Look for scattered showers and storms Sunday with highs in the upper 80s.

I will maintain daily scattered storm chances Monday through Wednesday next week with highs in the lower 90s.

TD 5...

Tropical Depression 5 looks pretty unhealthy this morning. There remains at least some chance this could become a tropical storm at some point today. If it does, the name will be Danielle.

TD 5 will likely make a landfall later tomorrow or very early Friday in southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi. The biggest issues with this system will likely be rain for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.

The remnants of TD 5 could wind up enhancing our shower and storm at some point late this weekend or early next week.

Hot and humid....changes ahead...

Yesterday we saw low to mid 90s return to the region. Today, I anticipate a lot of mid to even some upper 90s for highs, and when you factor in the humidity, heat index levels will exceed 100 degrees at times this afternoon.

Just like yesterday, there will likely be a few showers develop, but they will be very limited in nature, and most spots will be dry.

Tomorrow, I will mention a better chance of some showers and storms, mainly from late afternoon into the evening. It will still be hot as well with highs in the mid to even upper 90s again.

A frontal boundary will drop in here from the north Thursday and Friday, and both days will feature good chances of showers and storms. Highs will back down into the low to mid 90s Thursday and lower 90s Friday.

It appears that another one of our cold air damming regimes will set up by Saturday. If that occurs, it will mean cooler temps and some showers at times.

The daily chance of showers and storms will remain high Sunday into early next work week.

Tropics...

The tropical wave out in the Atlantic could get classified as a tropical system at any point, but it is a 'fish storm,' meaning it will turn north in the Atlantic.

Of greater interest is an area of low pressure developing just northwest of the Florida Keys. A lot of modeling really develops this one nicely, and it could become a tropical storm over the next couple of days.

This system will likely head toward the central Gulf coast later this week. Please see today's video, docked above, so lots of details and graphics on this system.

Heat marches back in...

After a nice respite from the heat and humidity over the weekend, we are heading back into higher heat and humidity levels for the new work week. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with mid to even upper 90s tomorrow through Thursday. Heat index values during the mid-week period will exceed 100 and 105 degrees at times, and heat advisories will likely be required.

As far as rain goes, only a couple of isolated showers or storms will dot the radar screen today, tomorrow, and probably Wednesday as well. However, the shower and storm chance increases for Thursday, Friday, and the weekend as our next front approaches and likely stalls out somewhere nearby.

Tropics...

The final advisory on Colin was issued Sunday evening.

There are two areas to monitor in the tropics. One is a tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, but even if something develops out of that, it will likely re-curve into the open Atlantic waters.

The second area to watch is near Florida. That area of low pressure will back westward into the Gulf over the next couple of days, and it bears watching.

Calmer weather arriving....

It was a rough and tumble Thursday around the region with numerous showers and storms and a slew of severe thunderstorms warnings and wind damage reports. Not only did we have wind, but we had tons of lightning and lots of locally heavy rainfall.

Today, the actual cold front will slide through and bring a few showers and storms, but I expect the coverage of showers and storms to be significantly lower than what we had yesterday. The greater coverage of storms will be the farther south you go in the area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s for most.

Tomorrow, we will get into the drier air behind that front, and it will be noticeably less muggy. Highs will be in the lower 90s, and while the rain chance is not zero, most spots will stay dry.

Sunday looks much the same with lower 90s and lower humidity and only an isolated storm chance.

More heat next week....

Enjoy the little respite this weekend because the heat and humidity will crank again next week. Highs will surge back into the mid to upper 90s with lows in the mid 80s and very humid conditions.

Tropics...

Colin is a classified tropical storm again, and will likely move just west of Bermuda tomorrow. The system will not impact the US mainland.

See the Tropical Page of this site for more Colin information.

Hot and humid with scattered storms...

Overnight, an intense area of storms raced through eastern NC, bringing some heavy rain and lightning in that part of the region.

Conditions should be fairly quiet this morning with temps shooting up pretty rapidly. Highs should top out in the mid to maybe upper 90s, and with very humid conditions continuing, heat index values will exceed 100 and maybe 105 at times in some spots.

As we get into this afternoon, scattered storms will likely fire, and the scattered showers and storms could continue at times into tonight. The overall atmospheric setup today is a little more favorable for some damaging winds, so I suspect some severe thunderstorms warnings will be required for some storms.

Tomorrow's forecast all depends on how quickly the next cold front scoots south through the area. For the time being, I will maintain pretty good chances for some showers and storms, but if the front were to move a little quicker than expected, the shower and storms chance would be much lower.

A fairly quiet weekend is ahead with highs in the lower 90s and slightly less humidity. The storm chance is low over the weekend as well.

Our old friend (or nemesis), the upper level ridge, will build back in next work week, meaning highs back into the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

Tropics...

The remnants of Colin continue to try and re-organize, and a recon plan will investigate the area later today if need be.

Heat marching on...

Highs returned to the 90s in many spots yesterday around our region, and today should be a few ticks hotter in most spots. I am going for mid 90s for most of our highs, and it will remain very muggy as well.

An interesting precip forecast today. First of all, a little light rain is scraping through northern NC early today as we catch the tail end of a disturbance to our north. That will exit quickly today.

The rest of the day's shower and storm chances largely depends on the progress of a disturbance that began the day in Ohio. Some modeling keeps that disturbance well to our north, while others models bend it southeast and right through our area. As it stands now, it appears the second solution is more or less correct, and I will mention a pretty good chance of showers and storms today.

I expect scattered storms tomorrow afternoon with highs in the mid to even a few upper 90s.

Friday continues to look unsettled as a cold front drops in. I expect a good coverage of showers and storms with highs in the low to mid 90s.

That front will slowly sag south of the area for the weekend. I will mention the chance of a lingering storm or two Saturday, then mainly dry and fairly hot (low to mid 90s) conditions Sunday through Tuesday.

Tropics...

Colin died a rather quick death yesterday due to lots of shear and is currently a remnant low. We will monitor for any signs of re-organization.

Here comes the heat....

Our respite from heat officially comes to an end around the region today. Highs will return to the lower 90s in most areas with a partly sunny sky. While a few isolated showers are possible, most places will remain dry.

Tomorrow will be hotter still with highs in the mid 90s for most. The possibility of a few afternoon storms will also be with us.

Highs Thursday will warm into the mid to even upper 90s in spots, and I expect scattered afternoon storms as our next cold front inches closer. That front will move in here Friday and give us good shower and storm chances.

Our weekend forecast will hinge on the southward progress of that cold front. As it stands now, it looks like the front will try to push into South Carolina this weekend, meaning the rain chance in North Carolina will be pretty low. Highs over the weekend look to be in the low to mid 90s.

Tropics...

TD 4 strengthened to Tropical Storm Colin as of the 5am advisory today. The system is in an environment that is supportive of slow strengthening over the next couple of days, although Colin will likely remain shy of hurricane strength. Thereafter, shear will likely increase, at least temporarily ending the strengthening potential.

As far as track, a general bend to the west-northwest or northwest should occur in several days, but questions arise thereafter. At this point, I would still say anybody from the Bahamas to Bermuda needs to keep an eye on this one, including the southeast US coast.

**Be sure and check out the video above for lots of talk about Colin.**

TD 4

Tropical Depression 4 is alive in the Atlantic. Lots of good info in the Tropical Weather section of the site. And remember, tropical updates at :21 and :51 past the hour on News 14 Carolina!

Heating back up this week...Colin in the tropics???

What a cool down over the weekend! One of our cold air damming scenarios set itself up, and highs were drastically cooler over the weekend compared to what we saw for much of July. In fact, the high of 72 at the PTI Airport yesterday was cool enough to be the coolest high temp every recorded on August 1.

Today, the early August sun should work on our persistent desk of stratus clouds with time, and those clouds should gradually decrease through the day. How quickly the clouds erode is the big forecast challenge today, and that will determine our high temps. Generally speaking, I am going with mid 80s for much of the region, but again, it depends on the speed with which the clouds erode.

Tomorrow we will see the return of lower 90s around the area with a partly cloudy sky. The, look for mid 90s Wednesday and mid to upper 90s Thursday.

A few PM storms are possible Wednesday, and then Thursday and Friday will see pretty good chances of some showers and storms as our next cold front approaches.

That front will slowly try to push south of the region over the weekend, but whether or not will completely clear out of the area remains to be seen.

Tropics...

A tropical wave about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands continues to organize, and there is a very good chance this becomes our next classified tropical system. When/ if it becomes a tropical storm, the name will be Colin.

A general west-northwest motion should continue for this system, and by Sunday or so this could be in the Bahamas. Stay tuned....

Remember, the Tropical Weather section of the site has lots of good info.....