Much lower humidity levels this afternoon...

A cold front continues to push south of the region, and some cooler, drier air is settling in. Humidity values will be noticeably lower as today unfolds, and we will see lots of sunshine with highs in the upper 80s for the Triad and lower 90s for the Charlotte and Triangle regions.

A pleasant night is on tap tonight with lows in the 60s. I still think some of the higher elevations in the mountains could wind up in the 50s tonight.

The weekend forecast is a complex one. Winds will switch around out of the southeast tomorrow, and moisture will begin to return. I anticipate lots of clouds tomorrow, and a chance of a few showers or a storm or two will return tomorrow afternoon. However, better rain chances will likely be with us Saturday night into Sunday. Highs this weekend will likely be in the mid to upper 80s.

Highs return to the 90s next work week with lows in the 70s once again. Each day will feature the chance of a few PM storms. The chances might get better again toward the end of the work week as another front approaches.

Hot and humid today, but some relief tomorrow.....

A cold front is approaching our region today, and out ahead of that front we will have hot and humid conditions with highs in the mid 90s. A few showers and storms will also likely fire as the day unfolds, and those should quickly end by this evening.

Some drier air will settle into the region tonight and tomorrow, and it will be noticeably less humid for our Friday. Highs will be in the upper 80s around the Triad and low to mid 90s tomorrow around the Charlotte and Triangle regions.

Lows in many locations will dip down into the 60s Saturday morning....some mountain spots could make it into the 50s.

The forecast gets trickier for the weekend. It appears that I will have to mention the chance of at least a few storms later Saturday and Saturday night, and the chances for rain and storms will only increase for Sunday. Highs should run from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Scattered storms....

It was a very unsettled Tuesday around the region with areas of rain and storms meandering about through the day. Lots of rain fell in a good number of locations, and a few severe storms occurred.

Today, while we will see scattered storms, they will be fewer in number than yesterday. It will also be warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A cold front will drop into the area late tomorrow, and more scattered storms are likely. But the big story is what will settle in behind the front.

A big-time decrease in humidity is on tap for Friday and possibly Saturday we well, and that will be a welcome change for many. Highs will be in the lower 90s with lows Saturday morning well down into the 60s.

There is some disagreement amongst the modeling for Sunday and Monday. The GFS is indicating the chance of a few scattered storms, while the European and the Canadian are indicating more of a widespread, overrunning type of rain event. Let's give this a few more model cycles to see how this pans out....

Some showers and storms....

An old frontal boundary remains draped across our region, and that will aid in the chance of some showers and storms today. Some of the storms could pulse up to severe limits and produce some damaging wind gusts.

Due to pretty extensive cloud cover and the shower and storm chances, temperatures will be held down today with many Piedmont locations shy of 90.

Some afternoon storms are possible tomorrow and Thursday with lower 90s tomorrow and mid 90s Thursday.

Pattern change....

I am still expecting a big push of less muggy air to arrive for Friday and Saturday. This should be a nice breath of fresh air. Highs will remain near 90, but it will be noticeably less humid, and lows should dip into the mid 60s in many spots by Saturday morning.

Weather changes...

What an oppressively hot and humid weekend.....pretty brutal stuff. However, some weather changes are taking place today.

A cold front is dropping into the region and stalling out, and that front will give the region pretty good chances for some showers and storms over the next couple of days. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s around the region, so at least some improvement over the highs close to 100 over the weekend.

The greatest coverage of rain and storms will likely be tomorrow, and due to that, highs will likely be in the mid to upper 80s.

I will continue to mention the chance of some mainly afternoon storms Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the low 90s Wednesday and low to mid 90s Thursday.

I mentioned last week that there were some indications of at least a temporary pattern change around the end of this week, and that does indeed still look likely at this point. A cold front will likely move through later Thursday, and it appears some less humid and cooler air might arrive just in time for the upcoming weekend. Now, keep in mind, we are still in the middle of Summer, so don't expect a Fall airmass. However, it does look like an improvement over where we have been.

Tropics...

All is quiet.

Dangerous heat and humidity

The heat and humidity march on today through the weekend with lots of highs in the upper 90s. When you factor in the high levels of humidity, the heat index values will range in the 102-108 degree range this afternoon, tomorrow afternoon, and Sunday afternoon.

This is dangerous type of heat, and you need to take special care to remain hydrated and take frequent breaks to cool off if you must be outside for extended periods of time. Please check on anybody that does not have air conditioning, and remember your pets need shade and cool water if they must be left outside.

The Triad area saw a little bit of rain early this morning, but the coverage of storms this afternoon will only be isolated at best. Same deal tomorrow.

A front will begin to approach Sunday, and the chance of some afternoon and evening storms Sunday will be a little better. That front will then stall out around the region Monday and likely give us a good coverage of scattered storms Monday and Tuesday.

There are some signs of a pattern change to some cooler weather a week or so from now.....I would take it!

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Bonnie continues to battle hostile upper level winds, and there is some chance the system could degenerate into a tropical wave again. However, the official NHC forecast calls for Bonnie to maintain tropical storm status as it moves across south Florida today and into the northern Gulf coast over the weekend.

The bottom line here is that I think the upper end potential for Bonnie is pretty low due to the hostile upper level winds.

New tropical system....

The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on our next tropical system as off 11am.

Oppressive heat and humidity...

Heat and humidity will continue to be our big weather stories over the next few days. Highs will be in the mid 90s today.....even upper 90s in some spots, and heat index values will exceed 100 degrees at times. While a few isolated storms can't be ruled out, the majority of us should remain dry today.

The heat will reach its apex tomorrow into the weekend. Highs tomorrow and Saturday will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the region, and heat index values will likely eclipse 105 at times during the afternoons.

Better chances of some showers and storms arrive early next week as a weakening cold front approaches. Some afternoon storms are possible Sunday with better chances Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Tropics....

A couple of areas to watch. First, our disturbance near Hispaniola continues to battle shear, but there are some developmental possibilities. That system will wind up in the Gulf this weekend.

The second area is way down in the Bay of Campeche. Some slow development is possible in that region, but whatever forms will likely move into Mexico sooner rather than later.

Hot, hot, hot...

The heat and humidity march on across the region today with highs in the mid 90s in many places. As we head through the day, there will again be that chance of some afternoon and evening showers and storms, and once again, some damaging winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain will be possible if you find yourself under one of the storms. Like yesterday, the greatest coverage of storms could wind up being the farther north you go in the region.

Hot and humid conditions will roll on tomorrow into the weekend....mid 90s tomorrow with mid to upper 90s Friday and Saturday. I still feel some spots will hit 100. I also only anticipate an isolated coverage of afternoon storms tomorrow through Saturday.

A weak cold front will try to drop in here Sunday and Monday, and that should increase the coverage of storms again. Highs should also back down into the lower 90s by Monday as well.

Tropics...

Our disturbance in the northern Caribbean continues to try and organize, and there is a good chance that this will become our next classified tropical system. Odds are this will move close to Florida and wind up in the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Here comes the heat....

The dog days of summer are settling into the region, and heat and humidity will be the most significant weather stories around here for the next five or six days.

This is classic summer stuff, although temperatures will run above average. Highs today through Thursday will largely be in the mid 90s, then some upper 90s look possible Friday and Saturday. Some spots will likely hit 100 at some point later this week. Lows will only drop into the mid 70s.

Regarding rain chances, each day will feature the chance of some isolated afternoon and early evening storms, but the chance of rain in any one spot each day will be relatively small.

Not only will it be hot through the rest of the week, it will also be quite muggy. Please check on anybody that doesn't have access to air conditioning. If you have to spend extended periods of time outside, take frequent breaks, preferably in air conditioning, and be sure and drink plenty of water.

Tropics...

The tropical wave near Puerto Rico is showing a little better organization this morning, and some slow development is possible. A general west-northwest track will continue.

Unsettled again today...

Our weekend featured showers and storms scattered around the region at times, and more of the same is on tap for today. A disturbance over eastern Tennessee this morning will move eastward around the VA/NC border region as today unfolds. The result will be a good coverage of showers and storms for our Monday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Again today, some damaging winds, prolific lightning, and localized flash flooding issues will be possible.

We will still have some scattered storms tomorrow, but upper level ridging will build overhead as we get deeper into the week. This will lead to only a very limited storm chance on a daily basis and fairly oppressive levels of heat and humidity. In fact, I am expecting mid to upper 90s for highs each day from mid-week through the weekend with morning lows only in the mid 70s.

Tropics....

There are a couple of disturbances out there that bear watching, but I don't expect any immediate development.

Out of the office....

Going to be taking a few days off for the rest of the week. I will be back in the weather office early Monday morning. I might put up a twitter or Facebook hit or two (on the right), but for the most part, I try to step away when I take vacation time.

I appreciate all of you stopping by! Tuesday's edition of the Carolina Weather Video and discussion are in the post right below this one....

Another active day...

Monday was a pretty active weather day for much of our region, and severe weather was an issue, especially through the southern Piedmont.

We remain in a muggy, soupy airmass today, and in this type of airmass, it does not take much to initiate showers and storms. We have a couple of disturbances that will pivot through today and tonight, and I expect areas of showers and storms to be with us today and at least into this evening.

Again today, some damaging winds are possible in addition to the possibility of heavy rain and lots of lightning.

Tomorrow, some slightly drier air will try to slip in here, and I anticipate a significantly decreased coverage of showers and storms for our Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be around 90 tomorrow and up into the mid 90s Thursday.

Another trough will approach our region for Friday and the weekend, ramping up the coverage of showers and storms again.

Some good shower and storm chances...

After a one-day reprieve from the very humid conditions of late last week, it is quite muggy again today. A disturbance is located over eastern Tennessee this morning, and that disturbance will cruise through our region later today. In response to that, I anticipate a pretty good coverage of scattered showers and storms to fire, especially areas close to and north and west of I-85. Highs today will be held down a bit due to increasing clouds....mid to upper 80s for the Triad to near 90 for Charlotte.

Tomorrow also looks pretty unsettled with areas of showers and storms and highs in the mid to maybe upper 80s. On both today and tomorrow, a few storms could produce some damaging winds, and as always during summer, locally heavy rain and lightning will accompany the storms.

The number of afternoon showers and storms will likely decrease a bit by Thursday and Friday and highs will warm toward the mid 90s. More typical mid-summer weather appears on tap for the weekend as well with warm and muggy conditions and some scattered afternoon storms.

Scattered showers and storms...

After another scorching day Thursday (this time around humidity levels were higher as well), the pattern is gradually beginning to change. Overnight last night, areas of showers and storms bubbled up in the Piedmont. This was in an area where a low pressure near the coast and an approaching cold front were interacting just enough to fire off the rain and storms.

Today, I expect scattered showers and storms to fire again, and highs will still be up in the mid 90s in many spots. It will also be pretty muggy today.

The cold front will move through the region tomorrow, and I expect a good coverage of showers and storms to accompany it. Due to fairly extensive cloud cover at times, highs will only be in the mid to upper 80s for most.

Slightly drier air will slip in here Sunday and Monday, meaning dry days appear on tap with highs around 90 or so.

More scattered afternoon storms enter the forecast Tuesday onward next week with highs warming well up into the 90s again with time.

Tropics...

All is fairly quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

Hot and a bit muggier today....TD 2 in the Gulf

Yesterday was indeed a scorcher with highs in the upper 90s to in excess of 100 degrees in some spots. The afternoon had a desert-like feel to it with very low levels of humidity again.

Today, things are beginning to change a bit. It will get a but muggier as the day unfolds, and it will still be pretty hit....mid to upper 90s. As an area or low pressure hangs near the coast, a few afternoon storms are possible around the Triad, but most spots will remain dry. The southern foothills and the Charlotte region should be largely dry, but the chances of showers and storms will increase the farther east you go in the region.

A cold front will begin to get close enough to us tomorrow to increase the chance of scattered showers and storms with highs in the low to maybe mid 90s.

Scattered showers and storms still highlight Saturday's forecast, but then some drier air will slip in here for Sunday and Monday, meaning dry conditions and lower 90s for highs.

TD 2....

Our disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico got classified as a tropical depression last night. It is heading for a landfall near the Texas/Mexico border this afternoon. The system is really lacking in the convection department this morning, but if it can fire some concentrated convection, then it could become Bonnie prior to landfall.

The problem from this system will be more rain in the precise areas where they don't need it. Many of the same areas that received some heavy rains from Alex will likely gets rains from this system.

Hot hot hot....

Here is the temp map from 3pm....ugly stuff. I hit some selected cities on my Facebook page, linked on the right side....

Peak of the heat today...

Sunshine will continue today, and many locations will see the hottest day of the year thus far unfold. Highs will top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon....hot stuff. Humidity levels will remain quite low through the afternoon. Air quality remains a problem, and today is another Code Orange air quality day across the Piedmont.

Tomorrow will again be pretty hot with mid to upper 90s for most. A few late day storms might try to work in from the east as a coastal low back westward. A few late-day storms will also be possible Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s.

A cold front will drop through Saturday, and I will continue to highlight scattered shower and storm chances in the forecast. At this point, it appears some drier air might try to work in for Sunday and Monday, translating into fairly hot but dry conditions.

Afternoon storm chances return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropics...

We are still keeping an eye on the disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico. There is a chance this could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves generally toward south Texas.

Heat building....

As we enjoyed very nice weather over the Fourth of July weekend, locations to our north were really baking in the heat. Now the pattern is shifting a bit, allowing that heat to settle in here from the north.

Look for continued sunshine today with highs in the mid 90s. One bright spot is that again today, humidity levels will be on the low side.

The airmass is stagnant, and the air quality continues to deteriorate. Today is a Code Red air quality day for the Charlotte region with a Code Orange forecast for the Triad and Triangle areas.

Tomorrow will be the hottest day of the week, and in many spots, the year thus far. Highs will surge into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the Piedmont, and air quality will remain a problem.

Out in the Atlantic Ocean, there is an upper level low that is slowly backing westward. That low will get close enough to the region to bring the chance of a few showers and storms later Thursday and Friday. Look for mid 90s Thursday and lower 90s Friday.

A cold front will approach Saturday and bring some showers and storms. The front then stalls out nearby, bringing fairly muggy conditions and the daily chance of some scattered storms into near week.

Heat and humidity building again...

Due to holiday scheduling, there will not be a new edition of the Carolina Weather Video today. New edition posted bright and early Tuesday morning....

I hope everyone had a wonderful Independence Day. The weather was certainly nice for any of your outdoor plans you might have had.

Lots of folks are making a three-day weekend of it today, and we are beginning to feel the heat and humidity build. Highs today will warm into the low to even some mid 90s, but overall, humidity levels will remain lower than a typical summer day.

Highs will warm toward the mid 90s in many spots tomorrow, with mid to upper 90s on tap for Wednesday. Highs will remain well up into the 90s Thursday and Friday as well, and it will get pretty muggy again as the week unfolds.

Over the upcoming weekend, a cold front will approach and bring the chance of some showers and storms. Highs look to back down a bit for the weekend as well.

Tropics...

We are watching several areas around the Atlantic Basin for signs of development. The area of greatest interest is in the Caribbean Sea.

Ahhhh......

It feels great out there. If it were up to me, this is the type of summertime weather I would sign up for. Today will be terrific with sunshine and highs in the low to mid 80s. Humidity levels will be very low through the day as well.

Tonight will be a bit on the cool side by July standards, but it will feel refreshing....another good night to open up the windows. Lows around the Piedmont will drop into the mid to upper 50s...record lows might even be challenged at Charlotte and Raleigh.

Humidity levels will remain low through the holiday weekend with highs in the mid 80s tomorrow and up close to 90 for the Fourth. There will be no weather problems at all for all of the fireworks displays Sunday evening.

If you are heading to the coast, look for sunshine and warm temps. Up in the mountains, expect sunshine with cool nights and comfortably warm afternoons.

Next week, it will get hotter and muggier again with low to mid 90s and lows increasing toward the upper 60s and lower 70s with time.

Wonderful weather!

Absolutely wonderful weather conditions are settling into the region today. We will see lots of sunshine through the day, and highs will only reach into the low to mid 80s. Add to that mixture much lower levels of humidity, and the result is terrific conditions.

It will be comfortably cool tonight with a clear sky. I feel many Piedmont locations will wind up in the upper 50s to around 60 early Friday morning.

A delightful Friday will then ensue with sunshine, low to mid 80s for highs, and low humidity.

It will get a bit warmer as the weekend unfolds, and for Independence Day on Sunday, many highs will warm to around 90. However, humidity levels will remain on the low side, so it will still feel pretty good to be outside. For all of the fireworks displays Friday evening, no problems...look for a primarily clear sky with evening temps falling through the 80s and into the 70s.

Alex....

Alex made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with 105mph sustained winds around 10:30 eastern time yesterday evening. The pressure was all of the way down to 947mb, and Alex was rapidly strengthening in the system's final hours prior to landfall. Alex is now the strongest June hurricane wince Audrey in 1957.

The system continues to weaken in Mexico, and the threat from Alex is flooding in northern and central Mexico into southern Texas.