Senin, 31 Mei 2010

Some showers and storms for Memorial Day...

An upper level low is over northern Alabama this morning and will continue trekking slowly eastward. Tomorrow, a weak cold front will approach from the northwest. The result of all of this will be good shower and storm chances for the interior Carolinas the next couple of days. If you are beach bound, I think most coastal locations get away with a dry Memorial Day.

For the Piedmont, today will be warm and muggy, and as the day unfolds, a good number of showers and storms are likely in around the area. Lots of folks obviously have outdoor plans for Memorial Day, and the good news is that it will not rain all day. However, odds are your back yard will get wet at some point. Also, please remember that you need to head inside when you hear thunder...and that means if you are on the lake, you need to be prepared to get off the water quickly if a storm approaches. Highs today will be in the lower 80s.

Tomorrow will also feature good shower and storm chances with highs in the low to mid 80s.

The heat will crank up a bit by Wednesday. In fact, I anticipate a lot of highs in the lower 90s for the rest of the week, and each afternoon will feature at least some chance for a few showers or storms.

Sabtu, 29 Mei 2010

Viewer storm photos...

Lots of great viewer photos were sent in to us from the storms yesterday. Thanks a bunch! Below are some of them.....

Also, remember you can check out coastal, mountain, and tropical weather information by clicking on those sections on the left side of the page....

Jumat, 28 Mei 2010

Showers and storms later today...



Several factors are lining up to give our region a healthy coverage of showers and storms today. Not everybody will see rain, but I do anticipate scattered to numerous showers and storms to fire this afternoon into this evening.

Damaging winds will be possible with the storms, as well as some small hail. And any thunderstorms will be capable of producing prolific lightning. Please be aware that if you are close enough to a storm to hear thunder, then you are close enough to it to be struck by lightning. Some locally heavy rain could occur in some spots as well.

Tomorrow, I still expect some scattered showers and storms to fire around the region. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 80s.

The rain chances will decrease as we get deeper into the holiday weekend. While the rain chances are not zero, I think many spots will get away with dry conditions Sunday and Memorial Day.

The next system will bring in shower and storm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

If you are heading to the coast this weekend, Saturday will feature scattered showers and storms, but rain chances overall look pretty low Sunday and Memorial Day. Up in the mountains, same general idea...Saturday will be the day with the highest shower and storm chance.

I want to take a moment and thank all of the service men and women who have bravely served our country through the years. We enjoy the freedom we have today because of their sacrifice, and I thank you.

Have a safe and happy Memorial Day weekend.

Kamis, 27 Mei 2010

Fairly hot today....showers and storms tomorrow...



Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 90 to 93 degree range around the Piedmont. The coastal low continues to slowly pull farther out to sea, and aside from some lingering increased surf and rip currents, the impacts of the low are now nil. Yesterday, Hartford, CT hit 99 degrees....their hottest May temperature on record. Today is one of those relatively rare days where we will actually see warmer conditions moving in from the north.

A few late-day storms could fire in the foothills or northwest Piedmont, but they will be few and far between.

Tomorrow looks like an active weather day with showers and storms becoming likely by afternoon as a cold front approaches from the north. Some of the storms could be severe tomorrow afternoon and evening as well.

I will maintain the chance of some showers and storms Saturday with lots of highs in the 70s. Sunday and Monday continue to look primarily dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s...maybe some lower 90s in some spots Memorial Day.

Rabu, 26 Mei 2010

Getting warmer...



As the area of low pressure off of the Carolina coast weakens and begins to move farther our to sea, its influence on our weather will continue to decrease. For the Piedmont, look for a dry day today with highs in the mid 80s. Along the coast, a few showers are still possible, and be aware that rip currents will continue to be an issue today as well.

Tomorrow is looking fairly hot with highs warming into the 90-93 degree range across much of the interior of the Carolinas. The day will feature lots of sunshine, but late in the day, some isolated storms will likely develop.

Friday's weather is looking unsettled. A disturbance will approach from the north, and it will arrive right in time to interact with daytime heating. So I anticipate a good coverage of showers and storms Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Saturday's forecast is tricky. It looks like a front will stall out just to our south, and if that is the case, Saturday could be a cloudy and showery kind of day. We will see.

Highs will surge back up through the 80s Sunday and Monday, and our next front will approach Tuesday and Wednesday.

Selasa, 25 Mei 2010

Atlantic feed continues....

First of all, the East crew made it over to the North Carolina Zoo in Asheboro yesterday. It was my first time to head to the NC Zoo, and I was impressed. We had a great time....kids had a blast, and so did their mom and dad!



In terms of the weather, we continue to have a fetch of moisture off of the Atlantic Ocean due to an area of low pressure in the western Atlantic. I doubt this winds up becoming a classified system, but those along the coast need to be aware that the rip current threat will remain high for a few more days.

For the Piedmont, look for a mostly cloudy sky today with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. A few showers will pass through as well today.

Tomorrow, the impact of that Atlantic low will begin to lessen around the region, and it will get warmer. Look for mid 80s tomorrow, then upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday. I also expect some scattered showers and storms again Friday into Saturday.

Jumat, 21 Mei 2010

Shower and storm chances creeping back in...



Clouds are increasing today as our next system crawls closer to our region. As the day unfolds, the chance for a few showers and storms in the Piedmont of NC will increase as activity off to the west and southwest progresses our way. Highs today will mainly be in the upper 70s.

I anticipate showers at times tonight, and a fairly unsettled weekend is on tap. It will not rain all weekend, but I do expect some showers and storms at times both weekend days. A few strong to severe storms are also possible. Highs will be toward the upper 70s both days.

Next week, it still appears an area of low pressure will form in the western Atlantic and head toward the Carolina coast Tuesday or Wednesday. Depending on the exact track that low tracks, it could wind up enhancing or decreasing shower chances in the Piedmont.

For the time being, I will maintain pretty good chances for showers Monday through Wednesday for the Piedmont and especially the Coastal Plain.

Kamis, 20 Mei 2010

Dry Thursday....storms again this weekend...



Another significant tornado outbreak occurred yesterday evening and night in parts of Oklahoma, and the severe weather threat today shifts to an area from roughly Dallas into the Ozarks and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

For the Carolinas, this will be a dry day with a partly cloudy sky and highs in the upper 70s.

The system that has been producing all of the severe weather will continue to slowly shift eastward while gradually weakening as well. The system will be close enough that a few afternoon storms look possible late tomorrow in the mountains and possibly the foothills and western Piedmont. Highs tomorrow will warm into the lower 80s for most.

Over the weekend, the chances of at least scattered showers and storms look pretty good....especially during the afternoon and evening hours. If you have outdoor plans, be aware it will likely not be a wash out, but some showers and storms will have to be dodged from time to time.

I will maintain the chance of some scattered showers and storms in the forecast through at least Wednesday next week.

Interestingly enough, a lot of modeling is trying to develop some type of tropical system in the western Atlantic early next work week, and whatever could develop might wind up close to the Carolina coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. That might wind up enhancing the rain chances at some point next week.

Rabu, 19 Mei 2010

Quieter weather for a few days...



Some areas of locally heavy rain occurred overnight last night, especially from parts of Rowan county eastward across Davidson and Randolph counties. In fact, a few localized spots received over 3" of rain in Randolph county.

Today, I will forecast a partly sunny sky, and most Piedmont locations should see 70s for highs. There will be a chance for a few afternoon showers, but they will be scattered in nature, and I anticipate many folks remaining dry for the rest of the day.

Tomorrow and Friday now look dry with highs tomorrow in the upper 70s and up into the lower to mid 80s Friday.

Over the weekend, another system will track off to our north. However, it will be close enough to bring us the chance of some scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday.

It still looks like we will get into a maritime flow off of the Atlantic next week, and that means some clouds and shower chances at times.

Selasa, 18 Mei 2010

Challenging temperature forecast today...



Showers and moved through overnight last night continue to push into the Atlantic Ocean this morning, but lots of low status clouds remain across the region. Today's temperature forecast all depends on how quickly we see any erosion of that stratus deck.

Imagine looking up above our heads. A little bit above the ground, we have this deck of stratus clouds. However, once you get above that, the air is very dry. That will allow the sun to try and erode those stratus clouds with time. However, how much success the sun will have is a big question mark, and that makes for a low-confidence temperature forecast today. For the Triad, I will go with mid to maybe upper 60s....maybe low to mid 70s around Charlotte and lower 70s around Raleigh.

A few showers will likely develop late this afternoon, but those showers will dissipate quickly this evening.

Tomorrow and Thursday look dry with highs in the 70s.

The weather pattern looks unsettled again as we head into the upcoming weekend. Daily shower and storm chances again look high both weekend days, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, and highs will likely be in the 70s.

Senin, 17 Mei 2010

More rain and storms today....



After an unsettled weekend with scattered severe storms both weekend days and a soaking blanket of rain last night, we will remain unsettled today. Look for periods of rain and storms today. Some storms could again be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds possible. Also, the ground is obviously quite wet, so additional flash flooding problems are quite possible.

The storm system begins to pull away tomorrow. It will still be close enough to mention the chance of a few afternoon showers, but the chances will be much lower than today. Highs should be in the 70s tomorrow, and some sun should return in intervals.

Wednesday and Thursday look quite with a partly sunny sky and highs in the 70s Wednesday and close to 80 Thursday.

More unsettled weather will move back in for Friday and the weekend with some more afternoon scattered thunderstorm chances.

Minggu, 16 Mei 2010

Sunday....

Scattered strong and severe storms were around the region yesterday afternoon and well into the night in some spots. If you were one of the many spots that missed out on the rain yesterday, hang on....plenty more storms are on the way.

Look for a healthy coverage of scattered showers and storms to fire off this afternoon. Just like yesterday, the storms will be vivid lightning producers in addition to heavy rain, hail, and wind potential.

As upper level energy approaches later tonight (see below), I expect the coverage of rain and storms to actually increase as we get deeper into the overnight hours. So, odds are we will have a healthy area of activity around the area later tonight and through tomorrow morning.



The opportunity for at least scattered showers and storms will linger through tomorrow.

Remember, any storms that fire could be severe with hail and wind potential. Also, this is a summertime airmass, so lightning will be prevalent. If you are close enough to a storm to hear thunder, you are close enough to get struck by lightning. So, at the first clap of thunder, take your plans indoors.

I will be in the weather office dark and early in the morning...new post and video in the morning if the weather allows....

Jumat, 14 Mei 2010

Some PM storms....warm and muggy....



We wound up with an impressive temperatures spread across the region by late yesterday afternoon with mid to upper 80s around the Charlotte region and mid 70s in the Triad...also 60s all day in northeastern North Carolina.

Today will be warm and muggy for everybody across our region with highs up into the upper 80s....even a few lower 90s in spots. As a cold front inches closer, I expect some storms to fire in the mountains and foothills this afternoon, and then those showers and storms will likely develop in scattered fashion into the Piedmont late this afternoon into this evening.

That next cold front will stall out this weekend in the Carolinas. Look for scattered shower and storm chances both weekend days. On Sunday, it might wind up being dry north of I-40, but it is too close to call.

All of the region will likely see rain and storms Monday into Tuesday as our next system rolls through. That time frame still holds the most potential for widespread, beneficial rains.

Wednesday through Friday next week are looking cooler, less muggy, and primarily dry.

Kamis, 13 Mei 2010

Warm and humid....some storms later tomorrow....



Highs will warm into the 80s across much of the Carolinas today with a partly cloudy sky overhead. A back-door cold front is draped across the region today, but that front will really only bring cooler temps to the northeastern parts of NC, where places such as Elizabeth City will remain in the 60s today.

While one or two showers might pop up late today, the overall rain chance in any one spot today is very low.

A cold front will approach late in the day tomorrow. Ahead of the front, it will be quite warm with many locations achieving highs close to 90. From roughly mid-afternoon into the evening hours, we will likely see some scattered showers and storms move in from the west. Some of those storms late tomorrow could be severe with some damaging winds and large hail.

The exact location that the next front stalls out around our region will make all of the difference in the world in terms of our weekend forecast. At the moment, it looks like the best rain chance in NC this weekend will be south of I-40 with chances greatly diminishing south of I-40. However, even in the spots that are in a more favorable location to see scattered showers and storms, we are not talking about a wash out...just some scattered PM showers and storms.

An upper level trough will approach early next work week, and I still expect healthy rain and storm chances Monday into Tuesday.

Rabu, 12 Mei 2010

Muggier conditions back with us....



A southerly flow has returned to the region, and a moist airmass has returned with that southerly flow. With this warmer, soupier environment in place, the possibility will exist each day for at least a few isolated afternoon showers or storms today into the weekend. However, the chance of rain in any one locations the next few days is relatively small.

Highs today will mainly be in the lower 80s. We will get warmer tomorrow into Friday with mid to upper 80s tomorrow and upper 80s to lower 90s Friday.

A cold front will move into the region this weekend and likely wind up stalling out fairly close to the NC/ SC border. Locations north of that front will have only limited rain chances this weekend, but places near and to the south of the front will have a little better chance of a few afternoon showers and storms.

The region could definitely use a good, soaking rain....and I think odds are increasing that we will see just that Monday into Tuesday. An upper level trough will slowly pivot through the eastern US, and that will give us a good chance of widespread rain and thunderstorm activity.

Selasa, 11 Mei 2010

Clouds today....unsettled weather ahead....



A warm front is nearby our region today, and due to that fact, we will have lots of clouds through the day as well as a chance of a little light rain, especially this morning. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to around 70.

Tomorrow, highs will attempt to warm toward the lower 80s. At the same time, a cold front will make it about as far south as the Virginia border. Due to the close proximity of that front, I will mention the chance of some scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms.

While not zero, the storm chance looks lowest the rest of this week on Thursday with highs in the 80s. The warmest day this week will be Friday with highs in the upper 80s....even some lower 90s in some spots. A few PM storms are possible Friday.

Over the weekend and into early next week, a cold front will drop into the region and stall out, giving us the chance of some showers and storms each day....especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Senin, 10 Mei 2010

Delightful again today....more changes coming....



What a great weather weekend. Saturday was warm. Sure, it was breezy, but a nice day nonetheless. And then yesterday, for Mother's Day...wow, just picture perfect.

Today's weather will be very similar to yesterday's with lots of sunshine and highs in the upper 60s to near 70.

A warm front, which this morning is located around the Ozarks, will rapidly lift northeastward and move into our area later tonight. As that occurs, we will see lots of clouds, and a few showers will become possible after midnight.

Those shower chances will continue into tomorrow, mainly during the first half of the day. Tomorrow will be an overall cloudy day, and it will get muggier with time as the warm front lifts northward and southerly winds kick in.

Highs will bump up into the 80s Wednesday, and a few afternoon storms looks possible as well. By Friday, highs will warm up toward the upper 80s again ahead of our next cold front.

Chances for showers and storms look to ramp up again for the upcoming weekend as that next front approaches and eventually stalls out near our area. At this point, Sunday looks like the day with the higher coverage of rain this weekend, but that is not set in stone.

Jumat, 07 Mei 2010

Very warm today....much cooler by Mother's Day



We did indeed see a few isolated showers and storms late yesterday afternoon and evening, and a few of those storms prompted severe thunderstorm warnings around the Carolinas. Those storms were right ahead of a cold front which dropped into the area, and that front is now very diffuse.

For today, look for lots of sunshine with dry and warm conditions. Highs today will top out in the upper 80s to even some lower 90s in a few spots.

A strong cold front will race through the region tomorrow. That front will not have much moisture to work with, and the chance of rain in any one spots in the I-85 corridor is quite small. The chance of a band of showers and storms gets greater once along and east of I-95 tomorrow afternoon.

It will be a breezy day as cooler, drier air moves in. Winds out of the west and northwest could gust over 30mph at times...with higher gusts in the mountains.

Lows will drop into the 40s Sunday morning, and Mother's Day will overall be much cooler with lots of sun and highs in the upper 60s to near 70.

Highs will hang around the lower 70s Monday and Tuesday before it gets mugger and warmer again later next work week. The second half of next work week will likely feature some shower chances, but the timing of that remains in question.

Pic from near Mebane...

The isolated storms that formed ahead of the cold front Thursday evening were severe in some spots. Here is a photo submitted by Holly and Blake Gilliam of a hailstone from a storm in Alamance county....

Kamis, 06 Mei 2010

Quite warm....changes ahead...



Highs will surge into the upper 80s to around 90 today with lots of sunshine. A weakening cold front is approaching our area today, and as that front slips in here, a few late afternoon clouds are likely, and there remains a very limited chance of a few isolated showers or storms. However, any of that activity will be very few and far between, and I think the chance of rain in any one spot is less than 1 in 10.

Tomorrow will be very warm again with highs close to 90 and lots of sunshine.

Weather changes will take place over the Mother's Day weekend. A stronger cold front will move through Saturday, but again, moisture will be limited, so rain chances remain quite small. However, that cold front will be the leading edge to a significant cooler and drier airmass that will settle in as the weekend unfolds.

Saturday will likely be pretty breezy with highs in the 80s, and then for Mother's Day, highs will struggle to get out of the upper 60 with lots of sunshine. Lows will dip into the 40s for the first few morning of next week.

Highs will gradually warm back into the 80s as we get into the middle of next week.

Rabu, 05 Mei 2010

Warm and dry today....



A few folks saw some fog to start this Wednesday, but sunshine and warm temps will be the rule today with highs in the mid 80s for most. Lows will settle into the low to mid 60s tonight.

A weakening cold front will drop in here late tomorrow, and I suppose I can't rule out an isolated shower or storm in a couple of spots. However, I maintain that the chance of rain tomorrow in any one spot is very small. Warmth will be the bigger weather story with highs pushing 90 degrees in many spots.

Friday looks to feature lots of sunshine and warm temperatures, and again, I think a number of locations could wind up near 90 Friday afternoon.

A big weather change will unfold this weekend. A cold front will slide through Saturday morning. That front is the leading edge to a much cooler and drier airmass that will settle in through the weekend. Saturday looks breezy, but there is only a very small chance of a shower as that front presses through.

Mother's Day looks great with lots of sunshine and highs close to 70. Lows will drop into the 40s Sunday and Monday morning.

Highs look to remain in the 70s Monday before some 80s return by the middle of next week.

Selasa, 04 Mei 2010

Less humidity on tap today...



The rain the Piedmont saw yesterday is confined to the coastal Plain today, and that rain will continue advancing eastward and out to sea. Replacing it will be a much less muggy airmass with decreasing clouds through the day. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s.

Lows will drop into the 50s tonight, and then we will see lots of sunshine tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s.

Thursday and Friday are looking quite warm with upper 80s on tap....even some lower 90s can't be ruled out. A weak cold front will drop in late Thursday, and there is a small chance of an isolated storm late Thursday afternoon or evening, but the rain chance looks quite small overall.

Another cold front will swing in early Saturday. With that one too, rain chances look very small. However, that front will mark a pattern transition. Much drier air will blow into the region on gusty winds Saturday, and by Mother's Day, highs might struggle to make 70 degrees with a mostly sunny sky. Lows by Sunday and Monday morning will dip into the 40s.

Senin, 03 Mei 2010

Rain and some storms today...



Tremendous flooding occurred over the weekend in parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, and portions of the Ohio Valley as a slow-moving storm system dropped copious amounts of rain in those areas. Some areas picked up 10-15" of rain....really incredible.

That system is moving into the Carolinas today. The good news for our region is that the system is moving at a faster pace than it was over the weekend.

We will see rain and some storms at times today as a cold front slowly moves through the region. Some flash flooding issues can't be ruled out, but I don't think the Carolinas will see anything like that occurred to our west over the weekend.

Some strong to severe storms are also possible, with the highest chances of that being that farther east you live in the Carolinas.

The showers will end from west to east by this evening and tonight, and a much drier airmass will arrive for tomorrow. Highs will still be warm tomorrow....well into the 80s....but it will be noticeably less humid.

Overall, the weather looks warm and pretty quiet for the rest of this week. A couple of week cold front will move through....one around later Thursday and one around Saturday....but neither of those cold fronts look terribly impressive with now in terms of rain production.

Sabtu, 01 Mei 2010

Saturday evening....

Some areas around and just northeast of Memphis have received over a foot of rain since last night. Boat rescues have even had to be performed on the interstate.

The tornadic threat is really ramping up in Arkansas this evening.

Another 'high risk' of severe weather is out for Arkansas. This is the third 'high risk' day from the Storm Prediction Center since last Saturday.

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