Jumat, 30 April 2010
More on the Gulf of Mexico Oil situation...
I asked him first about the seemingly conflicting reports about the exact location of the oil, and you can read where his comments went from there...
"The way I understand it there has been oil that has been spotted along the coast of some of the barrier islands. Now in terms of a mainland "landfall" that hasn't happened yet and may not til tonight or tomorrow. Course the issue with the continual onshore flow is the seas are getting bigger . . . 5-7 feet by tomorrow so I'm not sure if the booms are going to work. Some of this stuff is going to go right over the top. You also have the situation where Sunday we could get some severe weather . . . so obviously that means rough seas and will probably prohibit any additional cleanup efforts Sunday and maybe even into Monday as it looks like the front may hang up and give us coastal storms on Monday.
"A friend asked me this morning if this is worse than the Exxon Valdez. My answer would be yes. And possibly by a lot. With that situation you had a known quantity of oil and it got contained. Here you have a limitless amount of oil leaking into the gulf until this thing gets plugged. How much comes out will be the question. The other factor here is the number of species that live along the coast in this area. Anything from otters, mink, dolphins, whales, turtles, birds to fish. Also this is where most of the country's seafood comes from in terms of oysters and shrimp. Just a tremendous impact on many different areas of life in this area. Just think the worst natural and ecological disasters this country has ever seen both happened right here."
Warming trend continues....
After 70s for highs yesterday, most of us will wind up in the 80s today with abundant sunshine. Humidity levels will remain on the low side as well.
Big thunderstorms will erupt today along and just ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. The highest severe weather probabilities today will be in the Mississippi Valley and the Ozarks. That front will eventually move through here....likely on Monday.
Over the weekend, it will get much muggier around the Carolinas as a broad southwesterly flow brings in Gulf of Mexico moisture. Due to the increase in moisture, I will maintain the risk of a few isolated showers or storms on Saturday and Sunday afternoon. However, the chance of rain each weekend day in any one locations is quite small. Highs this weekend will warm into the mid to upper 80s.
So, for the big Quail Hollow Championship, I can't rule out an isolated shower or storm drifting near the course over the weekend, but I don't anticipate any long-term delays.
As the previously-mentioned cold front moves in Monday, I do anticipate widespread showers and storms, and a few showers and storms could linger into Tuesday as well.
Kamis, 29 April 2010
Robert's post.....
If you are heading out to Quail Hollow this week the weather looks almost ideal through Saturday. As I will be heading out there Tomorrow morning, I look forward to 80s, sunshine, and following Freddie Couples. Late afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday with a better chance of some delays on the final day Sunday. Will see if Padriag can turn it around and if Tiger can handle the public gallery.
I will shift my focus to the Gulf of Mexico where last weeks platform explosion and has led to a pretty extensive oil leak. The BP owned oil platform “ Deep-water Horizon” which exploded and sank last week is currently spewing around 5,000 barrels a day, a number quite higher than previously thought. The Platform is located about 50 miles off the Louisianan coast neighboring with what biologist call the “Fertile Crescent” of the Gulf of Mexico. The past few day winds had shifted from the north and the oil slick was being pushed away from the coast. However, Today will bring about strong Southeasterly winds that will remain for a few days, adding to fears of a coastal environmental disaster.
The coast guard had planned to light the oil slick yesterday evening to increase chances of collecting the oil from the spill. After combustion and burning of the oil, the residue left behind is a thicker tar like substance that is easier for collecting with netting. If the oil spill continues to go unstopped it has the potential of affecting the fertile crescent of marine and terrestrial based wildlife. This is substantially worsened by the timing since many organism are in the peak of their mating season.
Weather wise the burning of the oil slick will lead to an increase of sulfate base aerosols in the lower stratosphere which can affect cloud growth and development as well as an increase in acidic rain fall.
We should expect the political theater around off shore drilling to increase in the next few weeks after this spill coincides with Obama's recent interest in increased offshore drilling. It should also be noted that currently BP is responsible for footing the bill with the recovery and handling of this oil spill with of course the help of the US Coast guard and other government agencies.
Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com
Gulf Oil Issues....
All efforts are being made to contain this spill and get rid of it, but it is far from an easy task, and serious environmental consequences might occur.
I spoke to my buddy Hank Allen, a meteorologist at WGNO-TV in New Orleans, LA. Here is a quick email he shared with me about the issue.
"Basically strong southeast flow the next couple of days and then southerly (will drive the oil slick closer to the coast). The issue with the burning is the lesser of 2 evils. They think it's better to have the air pollution than the water and coastal issues. The problem comes in that even once they burn it off there is still going to be some left over. You're still going to have a tar like substance. I'm fairly confident some of this will make it to the coast. Right now they are setting up booms to try to corral it as best as possible. A special shrimp season has been opened to allow the harvest of as many shrimp as possible before the oil gets into the area. However the oyster beds could be in trouble and of course all the wildlife areas could be affected depending on how much gets in there. Plus you have the wetland restoration efforts that will obviously be hindered."
I have Robert Elvington writing a piece on this today that I will have posted later in the day....stay tuned....
Getting warmer....
After a chilly, and in some spots, frosty start, we will see a warmer afternoon today than yesterday. Highs will warm up into the mid 70s for most this afternoon with a sunny sky. Terrific day.
It will not be as chilly tonight with lows near 50.
We will keep the warming trend going tomorrow. Highs will warm into the low to mid 80s, and we will again see lots of sunshine.
Muggier air will flow in here this weekend, and that means I will have to introduce the chance of a few afternoon showers and storms into the forecast. The weekend will not at all be a wash-out, but I do think some scattered afternoon showers or storms are possible both weekend days. The coverage of showers and storms will likely get greater the farther west you go in the region.
Severe weather and flooding will be possible this weekend in the Mississippi Valley close to a slow-moving cold front. That front will lowly drop in here by later Monday or Tuesday, and at that point, we should wind up with a good coverage of showers and storms around here.
Rabu, 28 April 2010
Beautiful afternoon...
Sunshine returns....
After having showers and some storms roll through the region yesterday, we are now back in a quiet weather pattern for a few days. Each day today through Friday will feature lots of sunshine, and each day will get a little warmer than the previous one.
Highs today will be in the 60s. Tonight will be fairly chilly again with a clear sky overhead and lows dropping to around 40 degrees....certainly some upper 30s possible in traditionally colder spots. That means I can't rule out a little patchy frost.
Sunshine continues tomorrow and Friday. Highs tomorrow will be in the 70s with low to mid 80s by Friday.
More humid air will flow in here over the upcoming weekend, and eventually, our next storm system will crawl close enough to us to bring some showers and storms. I have kept the Saturday forecast dry, although there is a chance of a few PM showers or storms mainly west of I-85. Highs will be well up into the 80s.
Better chances of some showers and storms look to roll in here Sunday and especially Monday. However, the specifics of this portion of the forecast are still a little tough to nail down.
Selasa, 27 April 2010
Some afternoon showers and storms today....
A strong upper level disturbance is rolling our way, and that disturbance will likely be enough to crank out some showers around the region this afternoon and early this evening. A few storms could be involved as well, and I can't rule out some gusty winds or small hail with any storms that fire. Highs today will be in the 60s.
The sky will quickly clear tonight, and cooler air will settle in with lows in the lower 40s tomorrow morning.
The weather looks very quiet for us tomorrow through Friday with a sunny sky and highs getting a bit warmer each day. Look for 60s tomorrow, 70s Thursday, then lower 80s by Friday.
A muggier and warmer airmass will arrive this weekend with highs up into the 80s and lows in the 60s. At some point over the weekend, shower and storm chances will return. For this morning's forecast package, I have removed the rain and storm chances from Saturday's forecast and included it in Sunday through Tuesday's forecast.
Senin, 26 April 2010
A few showers/ storms possible
After a tragic weather weekend across the eastern US, we will ease back toward quieter weather with time this work week. However, a couple of disturbances will roll our way over the next 48 hours and bring the chance of a few showers or storms.
Today will be quite breezy with winds gusting over 30mph at times out of the west-southwest. As the first disturbance approaches, a few isolated showers or storms are possible this afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s.
Tomorrow, a stronger disturbance will move in, and I will forecast scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon with highs in the 60s.
The weather looks quite nice Wednesday through Friday with lots of sunshine and highs getting a bit warmer each day.
Conditions look to get unsettled again next weekend into early next week as another storm system slowly approaches from the west.
Minggu, 25 April 2010
Sunday...
Turned out to be a tragic severe weather day across the Deep South yesterday, especially in Mississippi where a number of people lost their lives from a major, long-tracked tornado. Storm surveys will be conducted today.
Around the Carolinas, we will have the chance of some scattered showers and storms at times today, but the chance should gradually end from west to east as the day unfolds and drier air begins to move in.
A few storms could wind up strong to severe today, and I would imagine the greatest chances of that occurring would be along and east of I-95. However, if storms fire early enough in the day, I can't rule it out for the I-85 corridor.
Sabtu, 24 April 2010
Violent severe weather outbreak....
As I am typing this just before 7am eastern time, the airmass is already quite unstable across much of Mississippi. That unstable air will advect northeastward into Alabama and portions of Tennessse and Georgia as the day unfolds. This could very well wind up being a scenario where multiple waves of rain and storms roll through the moderate and high risk areas today.
Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible in the areas outlined in today's severe weather outlook. And, it looks like the atmosphere might very well wind up being supporting of long-track, strong tornadoes in some instances.
Everyone in the areas outlined above need to have a reliable way of hearing weather watches and warning today into tonight. And this has been discussed in many other places already, but there are thousands of people camping at Talladega Superspeedway in eastern Alabama. Everyone there needs to have a plan of action in the event shelter needs to be sought.
For the Carolinas, the scenario is a bit more muddy. We will likely see some showers at times today and tonight, and as time unfolds, some strong to severe storms could be involved. The threat here is not as great as locations to the west, but some strong to severe storms are certainly possible late today into tonight.
Below is the Craven significant severe weather parameter....the first two images are valid late today into this evening, the third image is valid late tomorrow morning as the instability continues to spread into the Carolinas. All charts are based off of the 0z NAM. On the Craven chart, typically values in excess of 20 indicate a significant severe weather risk.
Sunday AM
Jumat, 23 April 2010
Robert's Post....
A few passing showers this morning with temperatures eventually reaching the upper 70s this afternoon. I will say there is a chance for storms this afternoon but I would hold off any really significant chance until Saturday and into Sunday.
With such a prolific storm system making its way through the Plains and into the Southeast I figured I would blog about the recent history of SPC convective forecasting.
Including yesterday we are set to have at least 3 moderate risk days in a row for the US. In the last 3 years we have only had 3 events where we saw 3 moderate risk days in a row, with none in 2009. It is not out of the question for Sunday to see a moderate risk as well, east of the I 85 corridor. This would make for four days of Moderate risk outlooks for the same storm system. From the research I have done I have been unable to find an event where this occurred.
The Convective outlook is issued 5 times a day by the Storm Prediction Center for up to 3 days and has three main criteria of Slight, Moderate, and High risk outlook. SPC also issues a thunderstorm chance line and regional text box which are both below slight risk, so they are not consider risk outlooks. These convective outlooks are based on the probabilities of the occurrence of three factors: tornadoes, hail, and wind. This basically means if there is a 30% chance or higher for tornadoes on day 1 then a moderate risk will be issued. Wind and hail probabilities must be higher for a moderate risk to be issued since they are consider less harmful to human life. For day 2 and 3 probabilities must be significantly higher than day 1 to issue a moderate risk. That is why you don't regularly see Moderate risk days on day 2 or even if ever on day 3.
High Risk days are even rarer; in the last 25 years the US averages about 3 high risk days a year. There has only been 3 consecutive high risk days once and only 1 high risk ever issued on day 2.
For this weekend I expect a high risk issued later on for today and then one for tomorrow as well. Should be interesting to see if a moderate risk is issued for NC on Sunday. As of right now this system is strikingly similar to April 8 1998 southeast outbreak. So we definitely need to keep an eye on this system.
Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com
Powerhouse storm system crawling our way...
A powerful and dynamic storm system is churning into the southern Plains states today. Already, that system has produced a good amount of severe weather. I fully expect this storm system to wind up producing a serious and widespread outbreak of severe weather from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South tomorrow.
I am especially concerned about Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee tomorrow. To me, all of the ingredients look to be in place for a major outbreak of severe weather in that region. Granted, I have seen what looked like big-time severe weather setups wind up being rather docile, and that might happen this time. However, all of the players are on the field.
For the Piedmont of the Carolinas, we will see a good deal of clouds today with a chance of a shower or two in the northwest Piedmont today. Highs will be in the 70s.
Tomorrow, while the likely severe weather outbreak takes place to our west, we will see highs in the 70s with the possibility of some showers. By tomorrow afternoon, the healthier showers and storms will spread into Georgia, and by tomorrow evening and night, they will spread into the Carolinas. Severe weather will become possible in Georgia by tomorrow afternoon, and and severe weather in the Piedmont of the Carolinas would likely begin around the evening hours.
As colder air aloft moves in Sunday, we might wind up with another round of showers and storms by Sunday afternoon. Even on Monday, some showers could fire during the afternoon hours.
The weather then turns quiet again by Tuesday onward next work week.
Kamis, 22 April 2010
Great day today...unsettled weekend weather....
Today's weather will be enjoyable around the region with lots of sunshine and highs in the 70s. Should be a great day to spend some time outside.
A warm front will approach our area from the southwest tomorrow, and along with that will come a pretty good amount of clouds. Also, as we get into the afternoon hours, a few showers look possible with highs in the 70s.
Lots of uncertainty still exists with the specifics of this weekend's forecast. I expect a pretty significant severe weather outbreak over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley Saturday, and by late Saturday afternoon or evening, we will likely see some of those showers and storms move into the Carolinas. While the biggest severe weather potential looks to remain to our west, a few strong to severe storms are certainly possible.
Cooler temperatures aloft will move overhead Sunday while highs warm through the 70s. Those factors will combine to produce the opportunity for scattered showers and storms as Sunday unfolds.
Slightly cooler and quiet weather will arrive as we roll through next work week.
Rabu, 21 April 2010
Showers gradually end....watching the weekend...
The overnight hours featured showers at times with temps in the 50s. The storm system responsible for the showers is gradually pulling away from the region, but it is a slow process, and I will maintain the chance of some showers at times today, especially during the first half of the day for the Triad and Charlotte areas. Highs today will warm into the mid to upper 60s for most.
Tomorrow will be a bit warmer and dry with highs in the 70s.
A warm front will move through around Friday night, and some showers are possible at that time. Prior to the arrival of that warm front, we will likely see a day Friday that features a good bit of clouds with highs round 70 degrees or so. Some spots might be cooler depending on the clouds.
The weekend forecast continues to look fairly unsettled. The exact timing and placement of the weather features this weekend is still in question, but the general idea is that a fairly potent storm system will impact the region.
At this point, I will mention the chance of some scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon and night, and then rain and storms will highlight Sunday's forecast.
This system has good potential to bring severe weather through the Lower Mississippi Valley late Friday into Saturday, and that severe weather potential might wind up in the Carolinas as the rest of the weekend unfolds. Stay tuned....
Selasa, 20 April 2010
Some rain heading in
Clouds will gradually thicken today with the approach of our next storm system. Highs today will be fairly close to 70.
Some rain was across parts of the Tennessee Valley early this morning, and that rain will continue to east our way today. Some sections could see some light rain by late this afternoon, but the bulk of the rain will occur tonight into tomorrow morning.
We are not talking about a huge rain event, but I will think a quarter inch or so is possible in some spots.
The rain will exit tomorrow morning, then Thursday and Friday are looking primarily dry before our next system rolls in this weekend. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the specifics of this weekend's system....so for the time being, I will mention a chance of some showers and storms both weekend days.
Senin, 19 April 2010
Super Bulldog Weekend
Many of you know that I am a proud Mississippi State alumnus. Super Bulldog Weekend is a terrific annual alumni event at Mississippi State. It combines all of the Spring sports at MSU with lots of food, fun, and friends. I make an effort to be there most years, and I was able to head down this past weekend. I always love getting back on campus.
Saturday is really the biggest day of SBW, and I was able to spend some time walking around campus, grabbing some food and some delicious Mississippi State ice cream, and taking in the baseball game and the Spring football game.
We ate lunch at one of the best BBQ places in the world.... The Little Dooey. The Little Dooey is now a franchise, and there is one in Concord. Here is my lunch plate Saturday.
For dinner, we stopped off in Tuscaloosa at Dreamland BBQ. Some of the best ribs you will ever put in your mouth.
A couple of shots from the baseball game. Over 11,000 people in attendance at the largest on-campus baseball facility in the country., Dudy Noble Field, Polk-Dement Stadium.
Here are some shots from the Spring football game. Over 34, 000 people were in attendance at the second oldest division 1-A football stadium, Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.
Mild today....chance of rain by late tomorrow
After a great weather weekend, we will continue to enjoy pleasant afternoon conditions for our Monday with highs in the upper 60s for most. The day will feature sunshine through some high clouds at times.
Our next storm system is slowly approaching from the west, and that system will bring us a chance of some mainly light rain beginning late in the day tomorrow and extending into Wednesday morning. We could certainly use some rain...April has been very dry. But total rain amounts with this one will likely be under 0.25."
Thursday and Friday are looking dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Our next system will then move through over the weekend. Still lots of details to iron out with that one, but right now the best chance of showers and storms might wind up being on Sunday.
A little later today I will post a few pics from the past weekend....made it down to Super Bulldog weekend at Mississippi State....
Jumat, 16 April 2010
Robert's post....
Hot today and cooling off through the weekend. Expect temperatures today in the Mid 80s with plenty of sunshine, clouds will begin arriving tomorrow morning with temperatures dropping into the low 70s for highs this weekend.
With recent news of the volcano in Iceland affecting travel in the UK and other Western European countries, I figured it would make a good blog post. First of all the ash and volatile material expelled from volcanoes can clog and disrupt airliner jet engines. Going on the advice of the Met Offices in the UK, officials decided to postpone most flights with limited flights out of Northern Ireland. This precaution is based on the 1982 event where a British Airways 747 flew threw an ash cloud losing all four engines descending 36,000 feet in altitude before engines could be restarted.
Besides affecting airway traffic volcanoes have an extensive history of affecting weather. The most excessive and disturbing affect is climate based. Due to stratosphere forced particulate ash as well as sulfate particulate, oxidizing reactions create sulfur dioxide aerosols which circulate the atmosphere for weeks to months depending on height level before they eventually fall back to the surface. These aerosols act as cloud nuclei for water molecules allowing for more and typically dry clouds to form. These clouds which cover more of the sky (little or no rain) create an albedo effect limiting solar insulation and therefore dropping global temperatures anywhere from a half a degree Celsius to 3 degrees globally.
Recently in 1991 we saw temperatures drop below average after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. However, this eruption was dwarfed by the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1816. 1816, which is now know as the “year with no summer”. Global temperatures drop drastically and reports of heavy snowfalls in the northeast up to June. The Northeast recorded frost every month in the summer and heavy crop failure in the entire world. Summer crops are highly sensitive and cell walls rupture at any slight frost. It is believed that with the limited oats crop the bicycle was developed as an alternative means to horse travel.
Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com
Quite warm today...cooler this weekend...
Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs surging into the mid 80s in many locations with lots of sunshine. It will also be a bit breezy with southwest winds cranking a bit ahead of an approaching cold front.
However, that cold front, like most of the fronts this month, will not have a lot of upper level energy to support it by the time is makes it into our region. So, while a few showers will likely roll through the Carolinas tomorrow with the frontal passage, the chance of rain in any one location is quite small, and most will remain dry. Highs tomorrow will mainly be in the 70s, and northwest winds will kick up as cooler air begins the process of settling in.
Sunday will features lots of sunshine, but highs will only be in the mid 60s. Lows by Monday morning could easily be in the upper 30s.
For much of next week, highs will likely try to meander around the upper 60s to mid 70s. The work week looks primarily dry, but a couple of showers cannot be ruled out mid-week.
Kamis, 15 April 2010
Warmer weather back with us....
It felt like a winter day yesterday across much of the region. Many locations were in the 50s all day, and when you added in an overcast sky and some northeast winds, it was downright chilly.
However, today will be much different. After a bit of morning fog and clouds erode away, we will see a sunny sky today with highs in the mid to even some upper 70s. Tomorrow will be quite way with 80s across our region for highs and lots of sunshine.
Another cold front will drop through Saturday. Like I have been mentioning, that front, like most of them this month, will be weakening as it approaches, so the rain chances here in the Carolinas remain quite slim.
However, we will see much cooler temperatures again behind the front. Look for 70s Saturday, then 60s for highs Sunday with a sunny sky.
The first several days of next work week look docile with lots of sun and highs gradually warming through the 70s as the week unfolds.
I do need to note that we have the chance of seeing some 30s for lows around the region Sunday through Tuesday mornings.
Rabu, 14 April 2010
Cooler today....warmer tomorrow....
That back door cold front that we have been discussing with you for a few days has indeed pressed through the region this morning. In its wake, we are seeing a considerable amount of clouds that will try to slowly erode with time. It will also be significantly cooler today with highs in the 60s....in many spots around 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Full sunshine will return tomorrow with highs in the 70s. Friday still looks like the warmest day of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front will drop through the area Saturday, and while the overall rain chance in any one spot still looks relatively low, I do think there is the chance of a few widely scattered showers, or maybe even a storm.
Cooler air will flood in here behind the front for Sunday and Monday along with sunshine.
Selasa, 13 April 2010
Brief weather changes ahead...
More of the same is on tap today. Look for a lot of sunshine with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. However, a back door cold front will drop through this evening and tonight, and as that occurs, I can't rule out a couple of showers around the region. However, most spots will likely remain dry.
We will have one day of cooler temps tomorrow behind that front with a sky that attempts to gradually clear and highs in the 60s to at most around 70 in the southern Piedmont.
Thursday and Friday, we return to sunshine. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s with lower 80s by Friday.
The next front will then roll through Friday night into Saturday. Again, I can't rule out a couple of showers, but the chances of rain in any one locations remain pretty small. Highs will back down toward the lower 70s over the weekend into early next work week.
Senin, 12 April 2010
Docile weather pattern continues...
Our trend of quiet weather overall here in April continues this week. If you liked the temperatures over the weekend, you will likely be a fan of what's on tap for the new work week.
There will be some variability between days, but generally speaking, most highs this week will be in the 70s with most lows in the 50s.
In terms of rain chances.....slim to none. It does appear a fairly strong cold front will drop in from the north around Friday night or Saturday morning, but since it is moving in from the north, it will not have much opportunity to tap into Gulf or Atlantic moisture, so even then, the overall shower chance is not overly great.
Down the road, I do see some signs of a more active weather pattern for the last 10-12 days of the month or so, but that is not set in stone.
In the meantime, enjoy the weather!
On another note, I am not a guy that watches a ton of golf on TV, but I do tend to watch a good bit of The Masters every year. This year, I thought the tournament overall was pretty captivating. The course lent itself to enjoyable-to-watch golf, and the players responded.
And I was glad to see Phil Mickelson win it. The Mickelson family has been through a lot over the last year, and it was good to see Phil and his family rewarded.
Jumat, 09 April 2010
Warm start to April.....
Now that yesterdays system has passed through we can expect average to below average temperatures for the next few days. Next week will remain quiet with only a small chance of rain into Tuesday evening with highs in the 70s.
Yesterday's event unfolded mostly how we forecasted with multicell storms and a few embedded supercells. We did though, as the afternoon progressed, advected in higher than expected helicity values, prompting SPC to issue a tornado watch. However, going by storm reports North Carolina only saw high wind reports with a few tornado warnings issued by the weather service.
In conjunction with the weather service and North Carolina Climate Center we received report that this was the warmest first week of April on record. With an average mean temperature for the 7 day period at 70.7 beating out 1967 with 69.4. Apparently this phenomenon of a hot spell after a cold winter is nothing new. I have a attached a link that explains the Global pattern of the past few months.
Click here...
Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com
Excellent weekend weather....
After rough and tumble weather across the region yesterday evening, including a number of wind damage reports, quiet weather is returning today. A much cooler airmass is now here, and highs today will only be in the 60s despite sunshine.
Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s in many Piedmont locations, and I can't rule out there being a little patchy frost in a few spots. So, if you have some tender vegetation, you might want to consider covering it up tonight just to be on the safe side. But be sure and uncover them early tomorrow!
Sunshine will be with us all weekend with highs in the upper 60s tomorrow and mid 70s Sunday. Fantastic!
Next week look primarily dry, but with most highs in the 70s, it will remain pretty comfortable.
Kamis, 08 April 2010
Severe threat this evening...
Looks like the potential for severe weather will be with us this evening. A large portion of the Charlotte metro region is under a tornado watch, and it looks like we have the right mixture of helicity (turning of the winds with height) and instability to promote a threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. See the two charts above.....top chart shows helicity and bottom chart shows CAPE.
Stay with News 14 Carolina on Time Warner Cable for all of the very latest.
Robert's post....
Thunderstorms this Afternoon through early night time. Expect temperatures to climb into the upper 70s with clouds increasing as we go throughout the day.
Today's storm outbreak will not in any way be similar to the outbreak we saw two Sundays ago. This afternoon anywhere from 2:00 to 11:00 pm we should see a line of storms along the cold front passage. In this situation we have an elongated trough axis with the center of the axis well to our north into the upper Ohio valley. Due to the orientation and location of the axis we will be short on the helicity amounts (given the straight line hodograph) decreasing our chances of tornadoes to near zero. However, our 0-6 km shear will be reaching values to allow for multicell storms to a few isolated supercells to form. This time of the year when we have these types of storms you can almost always expect wind and hail to be our biggest players.
CAPE values could reach into the lower 1000s, high level clouds should not limit diurnal heating but low to mid level inhibition should limit most storms until the early evening hours.
Though the line may slow or break up along the Appalachians expect the line to reform and strengthen as it encounters lee troughing and forcing from the short wave.
Discussing with Matthew East we think that most likely we will see a severe thunderstorm watch box mid to late afternoon, given SPC's slight chance. If the line sets up we should see severe thunderstorm warnings up and down the line with long forewarning time.
As for the Masters a bulk or majority of the players should be able to get their first round in with just a few players including Tiger (1:42 tee time) having their back 9 affected by thunder or rain. This year I am going with Tim Clark as my pick to win the Masters. He tends to play well at Augusta with a second place finish in 2006. He actually has never won a PGA tour event but holds the most top 10 finishes(35) without ever winning a tour event. Also he is a NC State grad so I had to pick him.
Robert Elvington
robert.elvington@gmail.com
Some severe weather possible today....
An end to our very warm pattern is at hand as a cold front approaches from the west. We will see showers and storms roll into the Carolinas as today unfolds, and for the Charlotte and Triad zones, the main window of opportunity for showers and storms will be from roughly mid-afternoon into this evening. For I-95 and points east, this activity will mainly be tonight.
I envision this being a scenario where we see a band, or broken band, of showers and storms roll through. Some storms will likely wind up being strong to severe, and while I can't completely rule out any mode of severe weather, I believe damaging winds will be our primary threat.
Hopefully most folks can manage a decent soaking to aid in the pollen. Some of the highest pollen counts in the short recording history of pollen levels have been recorded over the past few days. The reason for the extremely high pollen levels is a combination of the very warm weather and the lack of rain thus far in April. Normally, we see rain every few days this time of year, and that cleanses us of the pollen. That has not happened this year.
A wonderful, refreshing stretch of weather is on tap tomorrow through the weekend. Highs will be in the 60s tomorrow, upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday, and then mid 70s or so Sunday, all with lots of sun. That will be nice!
Rabu, 07 April 2010
Weather changes knocking on our door....
Many folks around our region saw a high yesterday near 90 degrees. Today, it will still be very warm with mid to upper 80s in most Piedmont locations. We will continue to see lots of sunshine, and it will be a bit breezy this afternoon.
However, changes are on the way. A cold front will move in here late tomorrow, and along with it will come some showers and storms from late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Some storms could wind up producing some damaging winds, and we will watch that. It appears many spots will wind up with at least a half inch of rain....that will be good to knock back the tremendous amounts of tree pollen we have around.
Terrific weather then arrives for Friday and the weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s in many Piedmont locations with 70s Sunday. All days will feature lots of sunshine. Lows will drop into the 30s in many spots Saturday and Sunday morning.
The weather stays quiet and generally sunny as we head through the first half of next work week as well.
Selasa, 06 April 2010
Summertime in April....
Highs yesterday were in the mid to upper 80s....today, I think many of us hit 90. A lot of record highs will likely be tied or broken around the region on a day that will feel more like June or July than early April. We did have a few strong storms yesterday early in the evening, but not today...only hazy sunshine.
Sunny and quite warm again tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Changes are coming though. I expect showers and storms to roll in with a cold front late Thursday into Thursday night. A few strong to severe storms will be possible as well.
Behind that front, a nice, cooler, refreshing airmass will roll in. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s with lots of sun with 70s and sun Sunday and Monday. Some 30s are possible for lows over the weekend as well.
Don't look now, but there are signs that our old friend, the upper level ridge, will return again around mid-month...that would mean more very warm temps if it occurs.
Senin, 05 April 2010
Near-record warmth again....
Near-record warmth back with us today and tomorrow. See the video for details....
After nice weather over the Easter weekend, we will return to near-record warmth the next couple of days. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s. A weakening cold front is falling apart to our north today, but it is close enough that I will mention a very small chance for an isolated late day shower or storm. However, I expect the vast majority of the area to remain dry.
Tomorrow will be very warm with highs approaching 90 around the region.
Today's record highs....
Greensboro:87
Charlotte:88
Raleigh:88
Tuesday's record highs...
Greensboro:89
Charlotte:90
Raleigh:93
Wednesday will still be warm and dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s. However, the pattern changes later this week, and we will see a stronger cold front drop in here by late Thursday and Thursday night. Look for some showers and storms with the frontal passage, and then I anticipate cooler temps Friday into the weekend. Right now, it looks like 60s for highs Friday and maybe Saturday with 70s again Sunday and Monday. All of those days will feature lots of sunshine.
Down the road, there are growing signs of a very warm pattern returning to the eastern US....
Minggu, 04 April 2010
Jumat, 02 April 2010
Near record warmth today...
Highs will surge in the mid to upper 80s today under a sunny sky. The GSP airport down in the Upstate of South Carolina set a new record high yesterday, and I think several record highs around the region could fall today. Record highs today are as follows....
Greensboro: 87
Charlotte: 86
Asheville: 87
GSP: 84
RDU: 90
The Greensboro, Charlotte, and GSP record highs have a good chance of being tied or broken today.
For the Easter weekend, we will see some mid and high level clouds at times, but still lots of sunshine overall. A stray shower can't be ruled out in the western mountains, but the Piedmont to the coast will remain dry. Around the Piedmont, highs tomorrow will be in the lower 80s with upper 70s to lower 80s Easter Sunday.
If you are heading to sunrise services Sunday morning, temps will be in the 50s.
We will continue to see lots of 80s for highs Monday through Wednesday next week before a stronger cold front brings some showers and cooler temps toward the end of next week.
Everyone have a safe and blessed Easter weekend....
Kamis, 01 April 2010
Palm Sundays, tornadoes, and a passionate plea
At any rate, I can never think of Palm Sunday without thinking of tornadoes. This past Sunday, Palm Sunday, we had a significant tornado outbreak here in the Carolinas, including an EF 2 and an EF 3. Over 600 homes were damaged in the EF 3 tornado alone, and it is a miracle that no life-threatening injuries occurred.
Palm Sunday in 1920 featured a nasty tornado outbreak stretching from the Midwest to the Deep South. Over 380 people lost their lives that day.
Palm Sunday in 1965 featured another deadly tornado outbreak in the Midwest. 271 people were killed and 1500 people were injured.
Then there is the Palm Sunday outbreak of 1994. 27 tornadoes tore through Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina that day. I was still growing up in Alabama, living at home. I remember distinctly the severe weather came in two waves that day. One wave moved through from mid to late morning, and a second wave later in the afternoon.
I can remember how terribly warm and muggy it felt through the early afternoon hours between the rounds of severe weather. Temperatures soared into the lower 80s. As the second wave of severe weather moved through, I can remember being terrified, sitting in our downstairs hallway....that was our tornado safety place. We had the television on so that we could hear the severe weather coverage, and I had a large bowl of grapes, of which I nervously ate every single one while the storm roared outside. I vividly remember hearing the hail absolutely pound the roof and windows, and I fully expected the sounds of snapping wood and breaking glass to follow suit. But it didn't, the storm pulled away, and all we had was a white ground from the hail, tree branches down, and some shingles missing.
I am pretty sure that was the last time I was really scared during a thunderstorm. But what we experienced was nothing.
42 people died that day in the various tornadoes, and no tragedy was greater than what occurred at Goshen United Methodist Church in eastern Alabama.
Morning worship was taking place at the church, and it was a packed house....142 people in attendance to see their annual Easter drama. An F-4 tornado ripped into the sanctuary at 11:39am, right in the middle of the morning worship service. The building was destroyed, and 20 people lost their lives, including the pastor's daughter.
The really devastating aspect of this storm is that there was a tornado warning issued 12 minutes prior to the tornado hitting the church, but the people inside never knew there was even a warning issued. The warning process from the Birmingham NWS was excellent, and 12 minutes of lead time, especially in 1994, is about all you could ask for. Had the warning been known to the people in the church, the outcome would likely have been much different. The sanctuary was destroyed, but the foyer, where the nursery was located, as well as the Sunday School areas were still standing. Many, if not all, of the fatalities might have been avoided.
Please don't think I am criticizing. I am not. At that point, few churches and businesses had reliable ways of hearing warnings. But that does not have to be the case.
I say this at every single school talk or event speech I give. Every home, business, and place of worship should have a NOAA weather radio. Gone are the days when weather radios would sound for every warning in any county surrounding your area. If you purchase a NOAA weather radio with S.A.M.E. technology, you can program the radio to only sound for your individual county.
With our tornado event this past Sunday, the warning process generally worked very well. The warnings from the NWS offices were very good, and the media did a good job of timely distributing the information through the event. The High Point tornado had an incredible lead time of 29 minutes.
Most people in the homes that sustained heavy damage indicated that they knew in advance that a tornado warning had been issued and were in their place of safety.
However, what if this tornado outbreak had taken place at 2am? How many people in High Point would have been aware an EF 3 tornado was heading their way? How many people in Davidson county would have known and EF 2 was moving in?
It is always our goal at News 14 Carolina to be live on the air whenever severe weather is occurring....whether it be 2am, 2pm, or anything in between. However, we cannot reach through your TV and wake you up in the middle of the night. We cannot let people in church or at work know a warning is in effect. That is the job of the NOAA weather radio.
Please, find a way to get a NOAA weather video.....every church, business, and home should have one.
You can watch a great piece on the Goshen tragedy that was put together by the folks at ABC 33/40 in Birmingham by clicking here.
Approaching record highs....no foolin'
April has arrived, and along with it come.....late May or early June temps. We will see lots of sunshine today and tomorrow with today's highs in the mid 80s in many spots with mid to upper 80s tomorrow for Good Friday.
The record highs are as follows....
Today....
Charlotte:86
Greensboro:85
Raleigh:89
GSP:85
Tomorrow...
Charlotte:86
Greensboro:87
Raleigh:90
GSP:84
For the Easter weekend, a weakening cold front will drop in here Saturday, but I still think some clouds are all we will get out of that. Highs should be in the lower 80s Saturday and upper 70s to near 80 Easter Sunday.
Highs will warm well up into the 80s again by Tuesday next week before a stronger cold front eventually moves through sometime during the second half of next week. See the video for details on the timing uncertainty there.
Be sure and check back in here a little later on today...I am working on a post regarding my past experiences with Palm Sunday tornado outbreaks.